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Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+16)?

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Vinniemac said:
Doesn’t a Labour Brexit keep us more closely aligned with the EU, and therefore would be worse than May’s deal from your point of view? The idea that Labour will persuade the EU to set up a new customs union with the UK so the latter can have a say in EU trade deals does seem a non-starter rather than a possibility, imo.
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As I said earlier, a middle ground deal, one which more closely represents leave & remain, May's deal errs towards the direction of leave in one sense then does a reverse turn with the backstop, it's a messy deal, it needs to be smoother & the EU have already said they are happy with Corbyn's option so I imagine this deal could be knocked out in less than 18 months.
 
Ragaman said:
As I said earlier, a middle ground deal, one which more closely represents leave & remain, May's deal errs towards the direction of leave in one sense then does a reverse turn with the backstop, it's a messy deal, it needs to be smoother & the EU have already said they are happy with Corbyn's option so I imagine this deal could be knocked out in less than 18 months.
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So you’re saying the EU will agree to admit the UK to a customs union and allow it to have its own trade deals? I seem to have missed this, can you point me to a source please? Ta.
 
Vinniemac said:
So you’re saying the EU will agree to admit the UK to a customs union and allow it to have its own trade deals? I seem to have missed this, can you point me to a source please? Ta.
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I can't find anything having searched google but I do remember hearing this on a news programme a few weeks back, of course without a link the point is useless.

Edit/ this was mentioned briefly again on Politics today.
 
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Vinniemac said:
So you’re saying the EU will agree to admit the UK to a customs union and allow it to have its own trade deals? I seem to have missed this, can you point me to a source please? Ta.
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Never underestimate the power of denial when someone’s trying to keep their shit together.
 
HarryB said:
Regardless of what McCluskey says or thinks, the massive problem for the remainiacs who are desperate for a second referendum is when they lose that referendum.
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But the point of the second referendum is for people to vote from a position of informed consent on the basis of an actual, warts and all deal. I.e. not to force a change in the result but to fix the flaws in the first one and to break the political deadlock. People still arguing for Remain after such a vote would be the Remain version of the ERG (who are either vanishingly rare or almost everyone on PFM and at the Guardian depending on your POV).

Personally I think the vote is winnable as "Tell Them Again" is more than somewhat undermined by the fact that none of the supposed benefits of the first vote for the poor and disadvantaged seem even remotely like appearing. It would be a vote between May's hard Brexit Vs Remain not Remain vs Whatever flavour of unicorn Brexit you would like in an ideal world.

There is also lots of sentiment analysis that shows a strong swing of Leave voters thinking in hindsight that they made the wrong decision and a strong "Please just make it f**king stop" view. Turnout would likely be up but one can argue that this will benefit Remain as at some of them in the first vote would be thinking they don't need to vote as there is no way Leave can win.

More of an issue would be if they lost what would that mean for the negotiation phase and I can see how a renewed Brexit vote for May's deal would lead to a much harder version of the trasnsition.

Finally I note we have once again reached that stage where everyone gets hung up on UK politics and forgets about Ireland. May's deal still has no border solution which means we are backstopped into a CU despite the deal and vote.
 
Vinniemac said:
Doesn’t a Labour Brexit keep us more closely aligned with the EU, and therefore would be worse than May’s deal from your point of view? The idea that Labour will persuade the EU to set up a new customs union with the UK so the latter can have a say in EU trade deals does seem a non-starter rather than a possibility, imo.
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Corbyn's deal would basically be Norway+. That is customs union and single market with some minor clarification on state aid rules (ie. formalising the current situation to remove any ambiguity). We would have a say on EU trade deals in the same way Norway currently does (i.e. express our opinion but not get a vote) although we would likely carry more weight because of the size of our economy.
 
wacko said:
Chance to regain a clear conscience after all the flak on here ?
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Lol....not really. But as I said before, most people care about it a heap load more than me. I don't see either outcome as a difficult backdrop for my business and family.
 
SteveS1 said:
What about the silent ones?
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Yes I bet there are many. I have to keep quiet in certain conversations here, though....because the conversation never starts with 'what do you think about Brexit'. It always starts more like 'what the fvck has the UK just done ..rule Britannia, eh? Jeez.'
 
matthewr said:
Corbyn's deal would basically be Norway+. That is customs union and single market with some minor clarification on state aid rules (ie. formalising the current situation to remove any ambiguity). We would have a say on EU trade deals in the same way Norway currently does (i.e. express our opinion but not get a vote) although we would likely carry more weight because of the size of our economy.
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I thought Labour had ruled out freedom of movement?
 
Vinniemac said:
I thought Labour had ruled out freedom of movement?
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Only in a constructive ambiguity sense. Ultimately they know they have to choose between SM and FoM and if they pick the latter you basically have May's deal. Like with state aid there might be some form of language that can be used clarifying the existing FoM rules that sounds enough like a new thing for everyone to carry on pretending.

In both these cases (state aid and FoM) just accepting the normal rules that everyone else in the EU takes advantage of would possibly help win the argument because the Blair governments were way more liberal than they needed to be on FoM and the Tories have no interest in state aid. Blair governments were also less keen to interpret state aid rules as liberally as other countries although this was mostly out of a misguided sense of saving money rather (ugh, PFI :-( )than being ideologically opposed like the Tories.
 
So while she has moved by offering votes, May would prefer a 'no deal' by the sounds of it. She truly is an awful black hole. Her one-dimensional, hectoring tone is becoming genuinely unbearable. As in it's harder and harder not to switch off. Power probably drives most people mad and I believe she is now truly sick of mind.

Some good summaries:

"Alberto Nardelli‏Verified account @AlbertoNardelli
tl;dr Businesses will not know until March 13th whether the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal just two weeks later, whether Brexit is delayed until some yet to be agreed date, or whether the UK exits with a deal on 29 March."

"steve richards‏ @steverichards14
May’s latest contortion is meaningless- a short delay would not give enough time for another deal to be agreed. She would bring back her deal yet again and put the same proposition - my deal or no deal."

In other words...

 
HarryB said:
Regardless of what McCluskey says or thinks, the massive problem for the remainiacs who are desperate for a second referendum is when they lose that referendum. I'm increasingly convinced that events have convinced lots of people who didn't vote in the first referendum to vote Leave if there is a second one.

As Owen Jones correctly said, the "tell them again" message is massively powerful and sh1ts like Chuka, Blair et al leading the remain charge will not help at all.
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I'm not so sure. About 2/3 of abstainers in the ref were pro remain.

The referendum was won very narrowly by lies and electoral fraud and this is the kind of stunt that can only be pulled once.
 
Ragaman said:
It was mentioned again today a little earlier, albeit briefly.
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Well, Corbyn said the EU was receptive to his proposals. But as they stand, they still include a new customs union that the EU won’t countenance. Matthewr might well be right that Labour will shift to Norway+, (who am I to argue with him?) but Corbyn was still talking in terms of “access to the single market” and I honestly can’t tell if he’s being disingenuous or just clueless.
 
Barrymagrec said:
Yes. In addition any likely result of a second referendum will be so close as to simply continue the "we wuz robbed" refrain of the losing side, hardly a recipe for unity in the future.
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Let's just save the country from economic destruction first, and then we can deal with the "we wuz robbed" whining later.

Besides, if the UK leaves, particularly with a bad or no deal then national unity will be lost for a generation.
 
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