Coronavirus - the new strain XII

[Richard Lines]

Test, trace and isolate is a tool for managing this. But we’ve seen that there comes a point when there’s too much COVID in the population for any test, trace and isolate system to be an effective control - that’s the situation all Europe is in now.

This statement is surely contradictory? If test/ trace/ isolate is the tool to manage COVID in the first place it wouldn't have gotten to the point where there was "too much" COVID for it to cope?

Regards

Richard

 

[cooky1257]

This statement is surely contradictory? If test/ trace/ isolate is the tool to manage COVID in the first place it wouldn't have gotten to the point where there was "too much" COVID for it to cope?

Regards

Richard

Exactly, it's hard to believe but there are still people willing to excuse the uk gov on this shambles.

 

[Brian]

Exactly, it's hard to believe but there are still people willing to excuse the uk gov on this shambles.

Not really hard to believe, Frank. There are always apologists out there. A lot of people voted for this ideology because they believe in it, they can’t do anything other than try to justify it regardless of the reality.

 

[Monitor Gold 10]

Second National Lockdown being considered. Seems there will be a speech on Monday and possibly LD from Wednesday.

Shower. Of. Shit.

 

[Woodface]

I am getting really pissed off with the Govt ongoing Comms policy; constant leaks to the media ahead of policy change.

Some form of enhanced measures on the way with no end to this misery in sight.

I am not sure I trust any of the data.

 

[Del monaco]

They seem last out of the gate on everything Covid related. I think their approach is dangerous and betrays a lack of consensus and obvious power wrangling in the cabinet. They use Science when they feel like it or when it suits them and I believe pawing the strategy out to regions is possibly an attempt to distance themselves from decision making. God help us.

 

[Andrew C!]

They don't seem to like sticking to any objectives long, do they. If I'd have altered my objectives in my former role this often, I'd have been dismissed.

Having said that, the opposition are doing a really good job of not being an opposition, either.

 

[Richard Lines]

Exactly, it's hard to believe but there are still people willing to excuse the uk gov on this shambles.

My point was directed towards the like of the German system which was being held up as a 'shining light' and has quite simply failed!!!

Just listening to the BBC News and Dr. Sarah Jarvis quoting that 89% of people required to self-isolate have failed to do so. It really is about time we moved to a position where we ramp up the enforcement side of all of this. The softy softly approach isn't working so just maybe we need to consider methods which the liberals amongst might not want to consider............

I am getting mightily p****d off with following the rules since the back end of March, no income worth talking about and living in a situation where sufficient people simply aren't doing what is required.

Regards

Richard

 

[Woodface]

The cynic in me says that they are only reacting due to the R-rate climbing in London. The numbers seem to be falling in the northern regions but let’s kick them again when they are down. The sooner we devolve real power across the country the better.

 

[paulfromcamden]

The economy will be hit far harder as a result of the prolonging of the agony and people have needlessly got ill and died.

This is exactly what this chart from the FT shows has already happened - the countries that have failed to control the virus are the countries now experiencing the most economic pain.

We're often told it's a balance between saving lives or saving the economy. This indicates that you can't save the economy without first controlling the virus. There are no countries in the top right corner ('more deaths, small economic hit').

source: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data

 

[mandryka]

This statement is surely contradictory? If test/ trace/ isolate is the tool to manage COVID in the first place it wouldn't have gotten to the point where there was "too much" COVID for it to cope?

Had we had the world beating test and trace system that we were promised our situation would be different. Instead we got a grubby money grabbing shambles, it was never overwhelmed it was always let down by private sector incompetence and government dogma that ignored the pleas from local authorities to use local knowledge till it was too late.

No, I don’t believe that’s right, because test, trace and isolate can only function effectively when the prevalence of COVID is low. Without enforcement of social hygiene the prevalence will inevitably increase because of people’s default behaviour when they’re at work and when they’re at their leisure. When the disease takes off, there are too many people to trace and isolate, it’s just not feasible in practice. So my argument is that test and trace and isolate isn’t enough, it must be reinforced by a robust system of population control.

I hope someone can show I’m wrong. I wish what you say were true, because then the solution would be simple. You just build a test and trace system and provide the means for people to isolate. But unfortunately it isn’t true and I fear there will be more profound encroachments on personal freedoms. I also fear that liberticide populist political parties will be more than happy to take advantage of this.

 

[Seanm]

Bothering to clean trolleys before you walk into the supermarket doesn’t cost anything. Staying at home when you’ve been told to self isolate when you are a family of 2 teachers on full pay doesn’t cost anything. It’s discipline. Absolutely, support those who need support, but if they breach the rules, claw it back. In the case of the teachers I know blatantly breaking the rules, I’d fire them.

I don’t know how representative these examples are, and I certainly don’t see what they have to do with discipline: the one is a business decision on the part of supermarkets not to spend money on staff to wipe down and supervise trolleys (as some did during lockdown) and the other just sounds like selfishness. Don’t think discipline’s the solution there, or authoritarian interventions in schools. Tory solutions to Tory problems.

 

[mandryka]

This is exactly what this chart from the FT shows has already happened - the countries that have failed to control the virus are the countries now experiencing the most economic pain.

We're often told it's a balance between saving lives or saving the economy. This indicates that you can't save the economy without first controlling the virus. There are no countries in the top right corner ('more deaths, small economic hit').

source: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data

Obviously if you control it your economy will do better afterwards than if you didn’t. Is that what you’re saying? If so, no one will argue with that!

But I have a feeling that that’s not what you’re saying - if so, please say it clearly so we can think about it

 

[mandryka]

Tory solutions .

What’s the non- Tory solutions?

Tory problems.

Well, I don’t think so!

 

[Seanm]

The problem isn’t lockdown i.e. March to June. Neither is the problem supporting people to isolate.

The problem is when you come out of lockdown. When people start to work, when they start to play. That’s when the disease starts to propagate, because of the nature of team working and the nature of leisure.

Test, trace and isolate is a tool for managing this. But we’ve seen that there comes a point when there’s too much COVID in the population for any test, trace and isolate system to be an effective control - that’s the situation all Europe is in now.

My suggestion is that short of effective medical solutions the only way to prevent this situation recurring is firm control of the population.

Why jump straight to the police state solution? Why not try clear communications, a working test and trace system and effective economic support first?

Tory solution to Tory problems.

 

[mandryka]

Why jump straight to the police state solution? Why not try clear communications, a working test and trace system and effective economic support first?

.

I hope that’s what will happen, I’m really sceptical of the results because I think what’s needed is very fundamental behavioural change to be maintained long term, to become permanent. Economic support to self isolate is kind of missing my main point, by the way.

No more parties any more; changed sexual behaviour; you can’t hug your granny; masks worn all the time, and worn correctly. Can this be really put into place on a voluntary basis? I hope so but I doubt it.

And not to mention effective remote education; huge changes to the arts; massive changes to tourism; public transport restructured . . .


But I hope I’m wrong. My dystopic prophecy was for 2024, don’t forget, not for 2021.

 

[Seanm]

My point was directed towards the like of the German system which was being held up as a 'shining light' and has quite simply failed!!!

Just listening to the BBC News and Dr. Sarah Jarvis quoting that 89% of people required to self-isolate have failed to do so. It really is about time we moved to a position where we ramp up the enforcement side of all of this. The softy softly approach isn't working so just maybe we need to consider methods which the liberals amongst might not want to consider............

I am getting mightily p****d off with following the rules since the back end of March, no income worth talking about and living in a situation where sufficient people simply aren't doing what is required.

Regards

Richard

Tory solution to Tory problems.

There are some scary bastards out there. Proto-fascists.

 

[cooky1257]

My point was directed towards the like of the German system which was being held up as a 'shining light' and has quite simply failed!!!

Just listening to the BBC News and Dr. Sarah Jarvis quoting that 89% of people required to self-isolate have failed to do so. It really is about time we moved to a position where we ramp up the enforcement side of all of this. The softy softly approach isn't working so just maybe we need to consider methods which the liberals amongst might not want to consider............

I am getting mightily p****d off with following the rules since the back end of March, no income worth talking about and living in a situation where sufficient people simply aren't doing what is required.

Regards

Richard

Compliance will fall even further if the gov fails to understand 70% of minimum wage isn't enough to live on especially when any top ups from Universal credit take 6 weeks to arrive.

 

[Woodface]

We just need to adopt national measures & stick with them for a period of time rather than constantly changing things. Change leads to confusion & uncertainty.

Strong leadership required.

We cannot compare countries as people behave differently, social mores etc.

 

[Ponty]

I don’t know how representative these examples are, and I certainly don’t see what they have to do with discipline: the one is a business decision on the part of supermarkets not to spend money on staff to wipe down and supervise trolleys (as some did during lockdown) and the other just sounds like selfishness. Don’t think discipline’s the solution there, or authoritarian interventions in schools. Tory solutions to Tory problems.

You obviously shop at a better class of supermarket than me. At my nearest one it’s DIY, no problem with that. Plenty of space with cleaning stations on the way in to spray and wipe the trolley, then sanitise your hands. Except you could stand there for an hour and count the number of people who do this on one hand. It’s got nothing to do with money, people just can’t be arsed and yes, lack discipline.