advertisement


Coronavirus - the new strain XII

Status
Not open for further replies.
Heckyman said:
Hate to say it, but I think Covid is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

A mate of a mate (ICU nurse) has already had it twice in March and August. A vaccine that works better than natural immunity is not impossible but it seems a bit of a long shot to me.

Rarely follow the Covid news these days, it all seems like an exercise in finger pointing on all sides.
Click to expand...

Perhaps if you did follow the news you’d know there is no such thing as natural immunity.
 
mandryka said:
I let you off too easily before. Do you really think these people don't know about 1m+ social distancing? Of course they do!

Screen-Shot-2020-10-29-at-22.16.12.png



Do you really think these people don't know about wearing masks? Of course they do!

6-DC3-DD8-C-E120-49-A0-9131-1-A7-E502-FBAAB.jpg





In fact the tories in power now are not liberticide. And the left . . . and precautionary principles . . . I don't know how much they value an individual's freedom to act and take risks.





People with a party political agenda understandably want to focus the entire debate on the alleged incompetence of the Tories. That means they are missing all the important things. With all due respect the party political lefties here are like this


article-0-1A2B262D00000578-818_636x382.jpg
Click to expand...
Mask off.
 
droodzilla said:
Even after all this shite, most people are still in favour of a national lockdown:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1322206062846640128

Good.
Click to expand...
It’s already been leaked to the press, some form of lockdown ahead.

I can’t see me having a job for too much longer. I just wish they would decide on a strategy & stick to it.

People have been calling for a more targeted solution but this appears to have fallen by the wayside before it’s even begun.

I can’t keep up anymore, evidence of R rate falling in some areas (particularly NE) but we just carry on with more measures?

I don’t share your delight ahead of another lockdown, sorry.
 
droodzilla said:
Worth remembering that SAGE recommended a short, sharp national lockdown ("circuit breaker") in September. There's a reaon we no longer hear the phrase, "following the science".
Click to expand...

and it's now a proposal for four weeks rather than two. It'll need to be longer still of course...

Looks like they'll be keeping schools, colleges and unis open. It makes a mockery of the lockdown.
 
Shambles. We do not want another lockdown...it’s an enigma.....it’s not the right way to go.... back to the beginning....let’s follow the science again.....lockdown. What an inept bunch. Least it’s distracting from the Labour problems...which will be a relief for some!
 
C
mandryka said:
I let you off too easily before. Do you really think these people don't know about 1m+ social distancing? Of course they do!

Screen-Shot-2020-10-29-at-22.16.12.png



Do you really think these people don't know about wearing masks? Of course they do!

6-DC3-DD8-C-E120-49-A0-9131-1-A7-E502-FBAAB.jpg





In fact the tories in power now are not liberticide. And the left . . . and precautionary principles . . . I don't know how much they value an individual's freedom to act and take risks.





People with a party political agenda understandably want to focus the entire debate on the alleged incompetence of the Tories. That means they are missing all the important things. With all due respect the party political lefties here are like this


article-0-1A2B262D00000578-818_636x382.jpg
Click to expand...
Can you think of ways of dealing with the terrible, definitely-the-most-serious-problems like young people standing too close in queues and a minority of people on the tube not wearing masks that don’t involve handing repressive powers to one of the most right wing governments the country has ever known?

I can, but they might not suit a Tory-voting landlord.
 
Unfortunately a lockdown won’t work because not enough people will observe it. In any case, it doesn’t matter how long it lasts, once it ends, the jack in a box will leap out again. Behavioural change is our only real option, whether that be voluntary or by more persuasive options.
 
Seanm said:
C

Can you think of ways of dealing with the terrible, definitely-the-most-serious-problems like young people standing too close in queues and a minority of people on the tube not wearing masks that don’t involve handing repressive powers to one of the most right wing governments the country has ever known?

.
Click to expand...

I can’t, but that’s a different point. My point is that laisser faire isn’t working and there’s a gap to be filled by a political party who is prepared to go the authoritarian route. Which is the lesser of the two evils? I need time to think about that one.


Seanm said:
C

I can.
Click to expand...

please spell it out.

Seanm said:
Tory-voting.
Click to expand...

Never! What on earth would make you think that I would do such a thing? Just because I’m disillusioned with the party political left (on the basis of my contact through this forum mainly) doesn’t make me enamoured with the party political right.
 
tiggers said:
Perhaps if you did follow the news you’d know there is no such thing as natural immunity.
Click to expand...

Not sure what you mean?

From the world's premier science journal:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02943-9

At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, researchers lacked an understanding of how natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 might develop. ... Within months, studies had shown that infected people can make antibodies that neutralize the virus,

Further research has revealed that even people who have not been infected with the virus can have antibodies...

People who recover from other types of coronavirus infection can be reinfected, because the antibody responses in those cases are relatively short-lived. In the case of COVID-19, it is not yet known how long any potential protection might last; how common reinfection is; or to what extent reinfected individuals are going undetected.

...it is not yet known whether vaccine-induced immunity will be short- or long-lived, nor how effective a vaccine will be in older people, whose immune systems often respond less well to vaccination.​

My point was just to note that it's a complex disease that is going to take some time to get a handle on both scientifically and culturally.

​
 
Woodface said:
It’s already been leaked to the press, some form of lockdown ahead.

I can’t see me having a job for too much longer. I just wish they would decide on a strategy & stick to it.

People have been calling for a more targeted solution but this appears to have fallen by the wayside before it’s even begun.

I can’t keep up anymore, evidence of R rate falling in some areas (particularly NE) but we just carry on with more measures?

I don’t share your delight ahead of another lockdown, sorry.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately it's a double bind. Any effective response to the crisis depends on not having a Conservative government. So do we continue to insist on what we know works (stringent measures + financial support, followed by efficient T&T to stay on top of things) or do we factor government incompetence into our demands? I still favour the first approach because anything else feels like giving up (which would suit Boris Johnson and his chums perfectly).
 
Heckyman said:
Not sure what you mean?

From the world's premier science journal:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02943-9

At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, researchers lacked an understanding of how natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 might develop. ... Within months, studies had shown that infected people can make antibodies that neutralize the virus,

Further research has revealed that even people who have not been infected with the virus can have antibodies...

People who recover from other types of coronavirus infection can be reinfected, because the antibody responses in those cases are relatively short-lived. In the case of COVID-19, it is not yet known how long any potential protection might last; how common reinfection is; or to what extent reinfected individuals are going undetected.

...it is not yet known whether vaccine-induced immunity will be short- or long-lived, nor how effective a vaccine will be in older people, whose immune systems often respond less well to vaccination.​

My point was just to note that it's a complex disease that is going to take some time to get a handle on both scientifically and culturally.

​
Click to expand...

Recent peer reviewed research has unfortunately shown that the antibodies do not last long enough to enable any serious herd immunity.
 
ks.234 said:
I offer this little nugget from inside our care home track and trace initiative as an insight into how this government thinks.

Mrs ks is responsible for a number of care home in the South of England. Last week she was informed that the government has decided that testing will be done in batches of 5. That is, the tests from 5 different people would go into one pot and that pot sent off for testing. If that pot came back positive, then all 5 care workers would have to isolate while they underwent individual tests to determine who was positive and who not. Obviously this would create an operational nightmare that would make it impossible to run a care home with regular staff.

The government would of course be able to claim it was doing 5 times more tests.

Luckily the provider is one of the biggest in the UK and persuade the govt of the stupidity of its idea, but it was close!
Click to expand...
There is a way of bulking tests that is effective and does not then rely on individual testing. It has been worked out by mathematicians and relies on the crossover of various groups. To oversimplify massively, if group A contains individuals 1 to 101, group B 1 to 100, group A tests positive but not group B, you know which individual is infected. 2 tests, 101 people screened. If this is repeated with multiple crossovers you can screen large numbers of people, once, with fewer than one test per person and still identify individual positives. Because set theory.
 
stevec67 said:
There is a way of bulking tests that is effective and does not then rely on individual testing. It has been worked out by mathematicians and relies on the crossover of various groups. To oversimplify massively, if group A contains individuals 1 to 101, group B 1 to 100, group A tests positive but not group B, you know which individual is infected. 2 tests, 101 people screened. If this is repeated with multiple crossovers you can screen large numbers of people, once, with fewer than one test per person and still identify individual positives. Because set theory.
Click to expand...

I guess it becomes less efficient as the fraction of positives increases though...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top