Brexit: give me a positive effect... X
- Thread starter kabayiri
- Start date
- Status
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
"OK, the general trend was for older, less educated, less affluent, right-wing leaning voters to have voted leave "
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
"OK, the general trend was for older, less educated, less affluent, right-wing leaning voters to have voted leave "
You give then just one issue....one thing to do.....they get to the ballot box and, err, doh!
Just IMO..
I think you find some people who vote predominantly on local issues, and others who take a wider view.
I think people who live in struggling areas, on lower incomes, tend to focus on the former.
In the Brexit campaign, you had George Osborne on one side talking about average reduction in family incomes by 2025, and on the other you had UKIP'ers pointing to the loss of local jobs and suggesting the EU was to blame.
Now which of these is most likely to resonate with low income people; people who only see Europe as a place to holiday for a week every year; never mind work in.
I think you find some people who vote predominantly on local issues, and others who take a wider view.
I think people who live in struggling areas, on lower incomes, tend to focus on the former.
In the Brexit campaign, you had George Osborne on one side talking about average reduction in family incomes by 2025, and on the other you had UKIP'ers pointing to the loss of local jobs and suggesting the EU was to blame.
Now which of these is most likely to resonate with low income people; people who only see Europe as a place to holiday for a week every year; never mind work in.
Tony L
Administrator
Good. Please explain the very clear education split. Are these low educational achievers the wealthy home-owning Tory pensioners you so fear?! Do they comprise 60% of the population of Bolton?!
PS I’m obviously taking the piss as it is such an incomplete dataset. The real hard evidence lies in the huge number of working class Labour seats that have been so consistently solid Labour pretty much as long as the party has existed, yet voted overwhelmingly for Brexit and then voted far-right in the last election. I’m certainly not arguing that racist pensioners don’t exist, but they certainly don’t exist in the numbers necessary to tip such overwhelmingly safe Labour seats in such numbers! The thing the London Labour elite either doesn’t get, or can’t deal with if it does, is that a lot of northern working class people are very open to far-right messaging. This goes right back to the days of Moseley, the NF openly marketing in football crowds etc etc. It has always been here. Bannon, Farage and Trump all fully grasp this ugly xenophobic streak in the ‘left-behind’ working class and mobilised it very successfully. The Tories saw this and Johnson, Gove etc went “here, hold my beer...” and we are exactly where we are...
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
“The great thing about democracy is that it gives every voter a chance to do something stupid.” ~ Art Spander
zarniwoop
hoopy frood
Not to the same degree as the right but some support was there where it mattered, at the vote.
Unless, of course, those Labour and Green 'leave' voters are not proper left-wingers or there were no working people in the Conservatives or UKIP.
The problem with summary charts like this is that they mask the complexities in the underlying data; complexities which make it difficult to draw reliable conclusions. For example, are Age and Education really different measures? Young people are more likely to have A levels and degrees than older people owing to changes in policy and opportunity. Turnout varied by each of these parameters too, which is not shown here.
Stunsworth
pfm Member
That reminds me Mr Hardacre, I haven’t watched Brass in quite some time.
It's that same democracy which gets politicians elected (and re-elected) on sometimes nothing more than empty promises.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
The evidence is that in the 'Red Wall' constituencies, Labour lost 20% of its 2017 vote (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_wall_(British_politics)#2019_general_election_results) which may have been just an acceleration of an already existing downward trend. Some would have been 'hardcore, traditional' Labour voters and some would have been of the more traditional 'floaty' type.
TL/DR; some may have voted differently because 'Brexit', some because 'Corbyn', some for other reasons. It's complex and on its own not evidence of the working classes overwhelming support for Brexit.
You and Seanm really need to tone down the hyperbole.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Agreed, the chart was used to make exactly that point; you can't make simple absolute statements about exactly who / what was to blame.
Aliens are to blame.
It's always Aliens.
Unfortunately, Aliens don't do charts or graphs, so it's not easy to prove.....but it's definitely "them".
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
The evidence is that in the 'Red Wall' constituencies, Labour lost 20% of its 2017 vote (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_wall_(British_politics)#2019_general_election_results) which may have been just an acceleration of an already existing downward trend. Some would have been 'hardcore, traditional' Labour voters and some would have been of the more traditional 'floaty' type.
TL/DR; some may have voted differently because 'Brexit', some because 'Corbyn', some for other reasons. It's complex and on its own not evidence of the working classes overwhelming support for Brexit.
You and Seanm really need to tone down the hyperbole.
Rightly or wrongly, 'Corbyn' was a huge obstacle for Labour. Many voters (of various parties) who were very unhappy with Brexit and Johnson wouldn't shift. The result exaggerated the idea that the vote was all about Brexit and voters were all in favour of 'getting it done'. Some were, many were not, but they simply wouldn't vote for Corbyn.
Tony L
Administrator
The decline in Labour vote is open for interpretation as there were other factors (hopeless leadership etc), but the Brexit vote being so high in working class areas is absolutely indisputable.
You and Seanm really need to tone down the hyperbole.
I keep banging on about it as I am a life-long anti-fascist/anti-racist (independent, not affiliated!), and if people don’t grasp exactly how the likes of Bannon, Farage, Trump, Johnson, Gove, The Daily Mail/Express/Telegraph, Yaxley Lennon, Katie Hopkins, Guido Fawkes etc etc recruit then we will lose everything to them (assuming of course they have not already won). The duck is walking and quacking. It is a duck.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
You have an anti-fascist background and so naturally will see anything to the right of your political compass as fascists. I see a few fascists out there but most of the time I see self-interested chancers who's interest in politics will extend as far as it can offer them a chance to make a fast buck. And of course, my political view is far more objective than yours.
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Cant read that I’m afraid
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
I think the point is that worker’s rights have been secured by the Trade Union movement, and whatever your attitude to Trade Unions, the workplace would, for most people, be a poorer place.
Worker’s rights are a constraint on the worst excesses of capitalist exploitation, which is where the tension in the EU came from. There is a balance needed between worker rights and employer needs. Broadly speaking, the EU bought has into the principle of workers rights, where as the UK has tended towards tipping the balance in favour of the employer at the expense of the worker.
Worker’s rights are a constraint on the worst excesses of capitalist exploitation, which is where the tension in the EU came from. There is a balance needed between worker rights and employer needs. Broadly speaking, the EU bought has into the principle of workers rights, where as the UK has tended towards tipping the balance in favour of the employer at the expense of the worker.
Seanm
pfm Member
There is a correlation between level of education and age. Pensioners don't have to be wealthy not to have a stake in the productive economy or the fate of workers. They just have to...be pensioners. Owning their own home, which very many do, is also a massive bonus. We've been over all of this!
As a PR fan you know the difference between seats and the popular vote. Also: look at the demographic changes in these seats! That's evidence!
Ignoring the Daily Mail froth about London elites (seriously?) this isn't f---ing news to anyone! It's also not exclusive to the north FFS!
*Calms down*
Again, just believe what you want to believe. It's in direct opposition to the data but I think we've established by now you have zero interest in that.
Tony L
Administrator
I’m not arguing in opposition of the data, only your personal interpretation of it. These are very different things.
PS By ‘London Labour elites’ I refer to wealthy public schoolboy Jeremy Corbyn and his bunch of academic socialist advisors. This mindset just didn’t play out up north. Sorry to be the one to break that to you!
- Status