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Vast Brexit thread merge part I

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Of all the unexpected things that has happened over the last three years, this is one of the most surprising by Polly Toynbee.

If Boris Johnson quits, MPs should back Jeremy Corbyn to avoid no deal

Stephen

It's surprising in that Toynbee used to hate Corbyn. She attacked him and advisors like Seumas Milne virtually every week. So did the newspaper. It got to the point where I stopped reading The Guardian, aside from the Culture section. I do however think she's right in her analysis that if Johnson quits, MPs should back Corbyn to avoid No Deal.

Johnson quitting is a distinct possibility, because he then wouldn't be able to ask for an extension to Article 50. Given the Tories are shrinking in Parliament, the Queen would then choose Corbyn as the next PM and he would lead a unity government.

The Opposition Parties and rebel Tories would have to come together for a unity coalition to succeed. There are potential glitches though, as Toynbee points out.

"The Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, may be softening her “no way” stance. If not, she’ll lose the party’s reputation for pragmatic politics. Starmer says to exit the EU with no deal through squabbling would be unforgivable. It can’t and mustn’t happen. Understandably, Swinson fears that going into an election in November she may be attacked as a Corbyn stooge, but she’d never be forgiven if she let Britain crash out.

"Parties must swallow their squeamishness and vote the Labour leader in if that’s ever required. To prefer some grandee risks breaking the unity and goodwill of the alliance. In any case, to be an interim prime minister in this broken-backed parliament is almost meaningless: Corbyn would only have permission to call an election or do whatever parliament required. He would be as powerless as Johnson to promote his party’s policies without majority backing: a no-confidence vote could remove him instantly."

Its a well thought out piece by Polly Toynbee. I can see Corbyn as an interim PM. Whether I would vote for him and Labour in a general election though, is an entirely different matter.

Jack
 
So it’s through.

I suspect Johnson will ignore it. They’ll claim ‘human rights violations’ even though Cummings already demanded pretty much the same thing from the SPAD he marched out under police escort.

Stephen
The stinking hypocrisy of fundamentalist Gove citing European human rights law to provide cover for the likes of Cummings. No doubt the toilets in Tory wine bars will be blocked with burner phones going down them tonight.
 
Without wishing to stoke the (somewhat false) idea of Cummings as some sort of Megamind (*), this letter from the Graun made me think a bit.

Dominic Cummings’ meme-generating media outrage strategy is working



* He puts me in mind of this chap.
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I’m surprised that there haven’t been more (any?) Boris-Cummings/Pinky and The Brain jibes!
 
Oh dear, look who’s just been appointed the EU’s chief trade negotiator....this man-

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...real-over-no-deal-brexit-says-hogan-1.3993131

“A no-deal Brexit would create a “foul atmosphere” between the EU and the UK and would have “serious consequences” for negotiating any future trade agreement, Ireland’s European Commissioner Phil Hogan has warned.
Mr Hogan, who will remain Ireland’s nominee to the next Commission which takes office in November and is tipped for the vital trade portfolio, made his remarks after days of sharp exchanges between London and the EU”.

Brexit Island’s going to get it good and hard.
 
It's surprising in that Toynbee used to hate Corbyn. She attacked him and advisors like Seumas Milne virtually every week. So did the newspaper. It got to the point where I stopped reading The Guardian, aside from the Culture section. I do however think she's right in her analysis that if Johnson quits, MPs should back Corbyn to avoid No Deal.

Johnson quitting is a distinct possibility, because he then wouldn't be able to ask for an extension to Article 50. Given the Tories are shrinking in Parliament, the Queen would then choose Corbyn as the next PM and he would lead a unity government.

The Opposition Parties and rebel Tories would have to come together for a unity coalition to succeed. There are potential glitches though, as Toynbee points out.

"The Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, may be softening her “no way” stance. If not, she’ll lose the party’s reputation for pragmatic politics. Starmer says to exit the EU with no deal through squabbling would be unforgivable. It can’t and mustn’t happen. Understandably, Swinson fears that going into an election in November she may be attacked as a Corbyn stooge, but she’d never be forgiven if she let Britain crash out.

"Parties must swallow their squeamishness and vote the Labour leader in if that’s ever required. To prefer some grandee risks breaking the unity and goodwill of the alliance. In any case, to be an interim prime minister in this broken-backed parliament is almost meaningless: Corbyn would only have permission to call an election or do whatever parliament required. He would be as powerless as Johnson to promote his party’s policies without majority backing: a no-confidence vote could remove him instantly."

Its a well thought out piece by Polly Toynbee. I can see Corbyn as an interim PM. Whether I would vote for him and Labour in a general election though, is an entirely different matter.

Jack
It's more or less what I wrote weeks ago, alhough Toynbee's piece has less self-awareness. Maybe some people needed to see the full Johnson/Cummings horror show to get the prospect of a Corbyn-led caretaker government in perspective.
 
“No deal would be a failure of statecraft caused by all those who sired it”
(Boris Johnson)

To paraphrase Franky Boyle “the last time Johnson and Gove made eye contact was over the back of the sow”.
 
ERG hardliner Andrew Bridgen just said “The last thing the E.U. want is the people of Ireland looking over the border into the land of milk and honey in the North and having Brexit contagion spread”.

I was in the Republic and N.Ireland today and had a discussion with a significant small and medium enterprise business representative in Ireland. He said the last thing they wanted for fiscal reasons, was the North dumped on them. He neglected to tell me about the milk and honey for some reason.
 
ERG hardliner Andrew Bridgen just said “The last thing the E.U. want is the people of Ireland looking over the border into the land of milk and honey in the North and having Brexit contagion spread”.

I nearly s*it a kidney laughing when I heard that.
 
This is the clearest analysis of Johnson's strategy (and it is strategy, rather than tactics) I've seen:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rliament-brexit-power-boris-johnson-impotence

It's not pretty, but it does present the opposition with a Trump-style dilemma: the more outraged we become, the firmer the resolve of Johnson's supporters.

I'm not sure what the solution is, but I think we need to think carefully before we go all-in on a culture war with these far-right bastards (doh!).

Peter Mandelson was very good on Newsnight tonight he basically said that Corbyn has to move to the left ie the remain side cause Johnson now occupies the leave side and that Corbyn has no chance of winning a GE unless he does exactly that.
 
ERG hardliner Andrew Bridgen just said “The last thing the E.U. want is the people of Ireland looking over the border into the land of milk and honey in the North and having Brexit contagion spread”.

I was in the Republic and N.Ireland today and had a discussion with a significant small and medium enterprise business representative in Ireland. He said the last thing they wanted for fiscal reasons, was the North dumped on them. He neglected to tell me about the milk and honey for some reason.

NI is in dire economic straits but it is holding on thanks to subsidies from the mainland and the EU. Of course the Irish don't want to pick up the expensive tab of a unified Ireland at present, subsidising a large group of people, who don't like them very much, why would they? If the DUP had a brain cell between them they would realise that NI remaining in the customs union while we defer would bring enormous economic benefits to the province. Traditional industries have declined big time in Belfast and it's hinterland, but new industry would be attracted due to it's proximity to the EU and its market of 360m people.
 
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