UKIP!

[Tony L]

Out on his own is Farage who for the first time in political history, speaks clearly for the
fears and concerns of the ordinary man - like it or lump it and it's this kind of campaigning
that wins votes from the 'ordinary man'..

Bullshit. You've been had mate. Farage is a wealthy and privileged ex-public school investment banker arguing for a flat-tax, deregulation and a privatised health service. Any "ordinary folk" who support him have been royally conned.

 

[Joe Hutch]

UKIP have a few months in which to put together a coherent set of policies on which to fight the General Election. It'll be interesting to see how far they get before major divisions emerge; eg some UKIPers want a privatised NHS, but Farage himself is smart enough to know a suicidal policy when he sees one and has vowed to 'protect' the NHS:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nigel-farage-ukip-manifesto-doncaster-ed-miliband

The Ukip leader said protecting the NHS and tackling the cost of living were two key aims, in a move calculated to win votes off Labour. Although polls show the clear majority of Ukip's votes come from former Conservatives, Farage has repeatedly insisted that his party is eating into Miliband's vote.

"We have already been doing substantial work on the NHS, on defence, on education, on public spending and other areas, and we will unveil our outline manifesto for the next general election, and we will do it in a town called Doncaster," Farage said.

"It is a town in which Ed Miliband is the MP, it's a town in which yesterday we topped the polls, and we will have an honest conversation with the British public about the cost-of-living crisis and about how we can make life better and more affordable for ordinary families in this country. Policy will happen in Doncaster in September."

 

[Robert]

Place your bets......

A Labour win with a 40-50 seat majority.

Farage down on around 10% of the vote nationally but with perhaps half a dozen MPs if the frenzy holds up for the next 11 months, and if the hacks fail to find sufficient dirt to burry him.

50/50 chance Miliband will be frightened into putting a referendum into the 2014 manifesto.

 

[SteveS1]

A Labour win with a 40-50 seat majority.

Farage down on around 10% of the vote nationally but with perhaps half a dozen MPs if the frenzy holds up for the next 11 months, and if the hacks fail to find sufficient dirt to burry him.

50/50 chance Miliband will be frightened into putting a referendum into the 2014 manifesto.

This. Place bet now. A 'free hit' euro election is no indication of anything more than dissatisfaction. Voting UKIP as some kind of protest is understandable. Staying with them when it matters won't happen to any great extent. Scrutiny of what they are really about hasn't started yet.

 

[clivem2]

A lot depends on:

- how the Tories react and whether they get back a lot of the UKIP votes

- where did the LibDem votes go or did their supporters simply not vote? I don't imagine they voted UKIP!

 

[Tony L]

A Labour win with a 40-50 seat majority.

Farage down on around 10% of the vote nationally but with perhaps half a dozen MPs if the frenzy holds up for the next 11 months, and if the hacks fail to find sufficient dirt to burry him.

My bet: no overall control with Lab very marginally ahead of the Tories. Maximum of one UKIP MP assuming Farage can resist the EU expenses-trough long enough to stand himself. Lib Dems hugely reduced from last time, but still holding around 35-40 seats.

 

[Daniel Quinn]

My bet: no overal control, Lab very marginally ahead of the Tories. Maximum of one UKIP MP assuming Farage can resist the EU expenses-trough long enough to stand himself. Lib Dems hugely reduced from last time, but still holding around 35-40 seats.

I will take that Bet , I give you 100-1 on 35-40 seats

 

[Joe Hutch]

A lot depends on:

- how the Tories react and whether they get back a lot of the UKIP votes

- where did the LibDem votes go or did their supporters simply not vote? I don't imagine they voted UKIP!

More depends on how Labour reacts, IMO. The Tories will point to their referendum pledge and say 'we will give you a choice on EU membership, so no need to vote UKIP'. If Labour also offer a referendum, there'll be only one 'safe haven' for pro-EU voters.

 

[Robert]

Could well be Tony.
So much depends on what happens in marginal seats.

The LibDems might rally slightly if economic indicators remain positive.

 

[Daniel Quinn]

Labour wont offer referendum , it keeps them attractive to "business" when they have some "business" unfriendly policies .

 

[SteveS1]

Bullshit. You've been had mate. Farage is a wealthy and privileged ex-public school investment banker arguing for a flat-tax, deregulation and a privatised health service. Any "ordinary folk" who support him have been royally conned.

So true, this charlatan had currency with media barons like Murdoch who have been frustrated by the EU slowing their domination. He is about as far from the 'ordinary bloke' as it's possible to find. But it will take closer scrutiny than those with a vested interest in rubbishing the EU have yet given him.

 

[Joe Hutch]

Labour wont offer referendum , it keeps them attractive to "business" when they have some "business" unfriendly policies .

If they don't, I'd expect the LibDems to fare very badly indeed, as their pro-EU stance is about their only USP at the moment.

 

[clivem2]

A week in politics may be a long time but 7th May 2015 seems to give barely enough time to get leadership squabbles sorted out and polices set.

 

[Barrymagrec]

My bet: no overall control with Lab very marginally ahead of the Tories. Maximum of one UKIP MP assuming Farage can resist the EU expenses-trough long enough to stand himself. Lib Dems hugely reduced from last time, but still holding around 35-40 seats.

Don`t see that at all, I think they`ll be lucky to get 15-20 and if the UKIP vote holds up at all they could go right back to Joe Grimmonds 5 men in the back of a cab days.
I reckon the coalition in-fighting will get very nasty over the next twelve months and the LDs won`t come out on top.

 

[Bob McC]

Farage is the only UKIP candidate with a chance in hell of winning a seat.
Much as it grates to say it I predict a Tory minority government.
Thus enabling them renege on the referendum promise.

 

[John R]

Are you not self employed ?

And?

 

[Cav]

If the Scots vote Yes (which they won't), will that immediately affect constitutional boundaries?

 

[Bob McC]

in Scotland?

 

[clivem2]

Westminster presumably is what's being asked.

 

[Norman Green]

Re. next election I propose:

Farage as token UKIP member in Parliament.

Get rid of awful ‘bedroom’ tax.

Maintain the Lib Dem initiative of tax exclusion for lowest paid and restore 10% tax for the next band.

Bring some Greens and Lib Dems into the cabinet.

No referendum on EU ; a job for elected politicians to is press for EU reform; hopefully, they might be a little better informed than your average citizen.

NHS and money for medical research should be a priority.

George Osborne for PM. He’s a general good chap and financially competent.

Jacob Rees-Mogg in some major new role.

Michael Gove to continue in present post but to insist all teachers are properly qualified and to improve considerably relations with the profession. Ensure school examinations in literature do not include examples of modern celebrity ‘English’.

No House of Lords ‘reform’. We need the upper classes and Bishops of all persuasions present . Doesn’t matter if they occasionally doze off.

Restore the Careers Service, and apprenticeships followed by real jobs.

Bring back the Polys. Get rid of tuition fees and adopt a Scottish model.


I’ve run out of realistic ideas.