Many stocks are at, by far, all time highs after the longest bull run in history. And that is only 4 months after a pretty scary Covid Crash.
I wonder what your 'all out bull market' would look like ?
Stock Market 2020
- Thread starter andyoz
- Start date
- Status
Many stocks are at, by far, all time highs after the longest bull run in history. And that is only 4 months after a pretty scary Covid Crash.
I wonder what your 'all out bull market' would look like ?
andyoz
pfm Member
If this isn't a market driven by Euphoria then I don't know what is. If you take the massive Fed etc. stimulus out of it then the markets would have halved and stayed there for a bit. They were tanking until that was tabled.....tanking totally and at the fastest EVER
So if this is the new normal then where do we go from here? The only certainty we have now is that the Fed etc stimulus is temporary and cannot go on forever. That is the only economic thing that is certain although the dates aren't known. You then have to ask yourself - where does that leave the markets....do you like what you see?
So if this is the new normal then where do we go from here? The only certainty we have now is that the Fed etc stimulus is temporary and cannot go on forever. That is the only economic thing that is certain although the dates aren't known. You then have to ask yourself - where does that leave the markets....do you like what you see?
andyoz
pfm Member
The thing I am fully aware of is there is alot of cash still sitting on the sidelines so definitely an argument that markets will continue to go up. I just chose to not play that game fully and looking at other assets that I feel I have slightly more control over.
Silvers still on the rip...you can't say I didn't call that one...it's where I have my biggest position and the facts on where that one would go have been out in plain sight for months!
Silvers still on the rip...you can't say I didn't call that one...it's where I have my biggest position and the facts on where that one would go have been out in plain sight for months!
andyoz
pfm Member
This one liner from @jagdesign on 18 March wins the whole thread so far...instant Legend status!
On that very day Tesla hit it's bottom of $360 and is now $1550
deanf
pfm Member
I don’t think it is euphoria. It’s overpriced in areas and some people are delighted at their gains, but there’s still a lot of negativity around. It goes euphoric when most people think we’re out of the woods. Expect it when you least expect it.
My money’s on next year, but a guess is as good as a prediction!
Snufkin
pfm Member
Exactly, for most of us it’s a guess or a calculated one at best. My feeling is that as the carnage of unemployment and business collapse starts to become entrenched in the autumn we will see substantial falls in market values but it’s just a guess. Having said that, the better off may not start panicking till next year which might keep things going a little longer.
andyoz
pfm Member
Yes, when you actually look around there's a load of stocks down 70%+ but they aren't in the FTSE, NASDAQ, etc indexes so aren't on the news so no one cares (especially politicians). It's strange how the companies that form the indexes are benefiting most from the money printing...isn't that the weirdest coincidence
I'd say the 55yo who is watching their business implode just loves to see the chirpy news reporters trotting out the latest Dow Jones gains...bet they have never seen a stock market reaction like that to an economic crash before in their lifetime...
haha, kicking myself now for not properly acting on it!
I’ve only got a tiny holding, the first of which I bought just before Xmas, but it’s doing ok
robs
should know how this works by no
A heavily indebted cinema chain is possibly one of the last places I'd be looking to invest right now....? No audience, no films, huge ongoing costs and interest payments, and probably one of the last places that will (maybe) open up again if social distancing continues for any length of time? Or are you just thinking the SP is on it's knees and it's heavily shorted so it's likely to bounce back to some degree? Not for me...still in gold and silver here :-0
andyoz
pfm Member
We'll see about Cineworld. A cinema is a much more controlled space than a pub or restaurant.
Their fixed costs are low currently due to rent and rates holidays. They don't pay for films until they show them. Staff costs are basically teen wages...the days of film techs in the projection booth are long gone...
It's already priced in about as much bad news as it can take. Share price dived on delay to cinema openings and suggestions that all 2020 blockbuster distribution has been pulled. Looks like 'Tenet' about to break that rumour and others will follow. Hollywood won't sit on it's hands forever. It can survive a year on current funding. The Cineplex court case will take years and they'll probably win it.
It might tank but it's my wildcard ATM. Need to takes a risk every now and then. If early attendance numbers break expectations watch it go...Cinema goers are mainly younger and they don't seem to give a toss about Covid.
Still weighted towards gold and silver like I have been since March. Took some Silver profits on Friday...should've waited but I never look a gift horse in the mouth
Their fixed costs are low currently due to rent and rates holidays. They don't pay for films until they show them. Staff costs are basically teen wages...the days of film techs in the projection booth are long gone...
It's already priced in about as much bad news as it can take. Share price dived on delay to cinema openings and suggestions that all 2020 blockbuster distribution has been pulled. Looks like 'Tenet' about to break that rumour and others will follow. Hollywood won't sit on it's hands forever. It can survive a year on current funding. The Cineplex court case will take years and they'll probably win it.
It might tank but it's my wildcard ATM. Need to takes a risk every now and then. If early attendance numbers break expectations watch it go...Cinema goers are mainly younger and they don't seem to give a toss about Covid.
Still weighted towards gold and silver like I have been since March. Took some Silver profits on Friday...should've waited but I never look a gift horse in the mouth
Last edited:
Amber Audio
This is the Day
Did you get any Crypto, hope so cos it just went skywards, I bought ETH @ £80-100 in March - today it's over £250
andyoz
pfm Member
Not yet, the fact I can't hold in ISA held me back and alot of other options distracting me. Silver and Gold have been a good enough inflation hedge for now.
davidjt
pfm Member
It's only my opinion, but I'd say they may qualify as low risk (depending on the bank) in a 'normal' environment. But that's not where we are. So much more money has been printed than ever before that no-one really knows what the outcome will be. Inflation seems a reasonable expectation, in which case holding cash only makes sense in an inflation-linked interest bearing account. Even then, if the kids have flown and the mortgage is paid off your inflation rate won't bear much resemblance to the ONS figure.
Given that we're in new territory, everyone's guessing. We all want to sleep peacefully at night so it seems sensible to hedge for a while. Llike others here I'm overweight gold, silver and miners and I expect to stay that way for 6-18 months, maybe longer. Miners are the biggest segment by far because leverage appeals to me right now. But anyone can open a BullionVault account and buy metal in relatively small quantities. In a year or two we should have a better idea of what the new normal looks like.
Given that we're in new territory, everyone's guessing. We all want to sleep peacefully at night so it seems sensible to hedge for a while. Llike others here I'm overweight gold, silver and miners and I expect to stay that way for 6-18 months, maybe longer. Miners are the biggest segment by far because leverage appeals to me right now. But anyone can open a BullionVault account and buy metal in relatively small quantities. In a year or two we should have a better idea of what the new normal looks like.
- Status