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Post-Trump: III (decline, further tantrums, legal proceedings, book deals etc)

I don't care for her, but Nikki Haley is nobody's fool, so she must believe, and/or have been advised, that Trump's legal troubles will ultimately prevent him from running.
Unfortunately for her, the Koch network is no longer throwing money her way.
 
How Trump can become President even after losing in the Electoral College:

Basically, a repeat of the 2020 scheme. Block certification of results and throw election to House of Representatives, where they win. To do it they would use tactics that ought to be legally blockable, but apparently aren't. Speaker Johnson already has used a key tactic, refusing to swear in a newly-elected Democrat. Apparently there's no way to make him do it. Details from Thom Hartman here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-142066575:
 
How Trump can become President even after losing in the Electoral College:

Basically, a repeat of the 2020 scheme. Block certification of results and throw election to House of Representatives, where they win. To do it they would use tactics that ought to be legally blockable, but apparently aren't. Speaker Johnson already has used a key tactic, refusing to swear in a newly-elected Democrat. Apparently there's no way to make him do it. Details from Thom Hartman here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-142066575:

Bizarre. If the Republicans resorted to undemocratic tactics what might follow is that states with democrat majorities might refuse to implement federal policies like anti-abortion legislation or whatever.
 
The Republic of Gilead. Margaret Atwood saw it coming...

Such a shame the writer's strike delayed production of the final season of The Handmaid's Tale. It would have been fortuitous to have aired it from September 2024 in the run up to the election in November...
 
A very good article in the NYT on the mess that the Supreme Court has made of constitutional law:


The right-wing bias has tossed out so much precedent, which is supposed to be the whole basis of the common law legal system, that professors of constitutional law are giving up, because what used to be sure no longer is so. The Supreme Court has completely departed from, as Chief Justice Roberts said, "calling balls and strikes" and has become just another branch of Trump, Inc.
 
The 2024 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held August 19 to 22, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.

Watch out for a new Democrat nomination as Biden "with great reluctance" or "on the advice of his doctors" stands down. The landscape will shift. And since the Republican Convention comes first, the Democrats will be able to make plans accordingly.
 
The 2024 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held August 19 to 22, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.

Watch out for a new Democrat nomination as Biden "with great reluctance" or "on the advice of his doctors" stands down. The landscape will shift. And since the Republican Convention comes first, the Democrats will be able to make plans accordingly.
Is this speculation on your part, or do you have a basis for thinking this is the way this will play out? In many ways, I hope you're right, but I worry that Democrats, faced with a candidate switcheroo like that, might not respond as constructively as they might if they'd felt more invested in the process.
 
Is this speculation on your part, or do you have a basis for thinking this is the way this will play out? In many ways, I hope you're right, but I worry that Democrats, faced with a candidate switcheroo like that, might not respond as constructively as they might if they'd felt more invested in the process.

I agree, but it would be very tricky for Biden to make a volte-face before the convention out of nowhere. The convention would act as a place where democrats could come together and act in one direction.

This is just speculation, but I can see it happening.
 
I agree, but it would be very tricky for Biden to make a volte-face before the convention out of nowhere. The convention would act as a place where democrats could come together and act in one direction.

This is just speculation, but I can see it happening.
He would gratefully accept the overwhelming support at the Convention, but then say that, as he had established a firm foundation for the Democratic platform, he had decided to pass the baton to a new generation. It would render all those "senile Joe" attack ads totally useless and put the Republicans further in hock, having spent a fortune creating them.
 
Watch out for a new Democrat nomination as Biden "with great reluctance" or "on the advice of his doctors" stands down. The landscape will shift. And since the Republican Convention comes first, the Democrats will be able to make plans accordingly.

This is a bonkers theory albeit also one shared by Nikki Haley and the Daily Mail.
 
"The Republican refrain goes something like this: Democrats know Joe Biden can’t win in November and they — it’s always “they” — are going to replace him on top of the ticket.
Anyone around politics has heard it — and the assured predictions have reached a crescendo following the release of the special counsel’s report on Biden and the 2x4 to the head therein.
On Sunday even Nikki Haley, ostensibly the GOP’s Team Normal candidate for president, put down her cash at the window. “My bet is 30 days from now, I don’t think Joe Biden is going to be the nominee,” Haley told supporters."


 
The other thing about Biden stepping down is that if they do this (Spoiler: they won't) then they either have to pick Kamala Harris or ditch her and pick someone like Gavin Newsom (who probably refuse to run at this point as he has excellent chances in 2028).

If you want to go with Kamala then good luck running with a black woman who for all her formidable skills in grilling people in the Senate committees is actually a fairly terrible candidate. And if you whack her you destroy the very coalition which elected Biden in hthe first place (the black vote, women and the centre right).
 


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