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Post-Trump: III (decline, further tantrums, legal proceedings, book deals etc)

It is hugely worrying, and America is a very gerrymandered electoral system. If Trump does win I’d be amazed if he did so by actual votes. He didn’t last time against Clinton.
 
Kirk said:
The Economist had a new poll out yesterday. Basically, "we've launched our forecast model for the American election, which right now gives Trump a roughly two-in-three chance of beating Biden. When we unveiled a similar model around this time in 2020, it gave Biden an 83% chance of winning."

This one says neck and neck:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

About equal then but per 2020, the margins in most of the swing States are very small. The third party candidates could easily make a difference in these States (arguments on both sides about how RFK could impact the R and D votes). The Gaza vote could make a difference in MI. What's happening in those States is what really matters. It's also interesting that in State-level election polling, the Ds are doing quite well but on the national level the Ds (i.e. Biden) are struggling. A lot of local voters think their respective State economies are doing well but think the economy on the national level is not. They also think Trump will do a better job on the economy than Biden.
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Yes I see these, but then their are real votes. No way should this Trump backed high spending candidate in a red state be run so close by a Dem who spent only about $25k on a campaign. Look back at all the state and district elections since 2022 and Trump’s favoured candidates are not performing anything like polling would suggest. Which begs the question, who is responding to polls and who isn’t?


Tragic that some voters think enabling Trump will help the Gaza situation btw, hard to imagine anyone worse.
 
SteveS1 said:
Yes I see these, but then their are real votes. No way should this Trump backed high spending candidate in a red state be run so close by a Dem who spent only about $25k on a campaign. Look back at all the state and district elections since 2022 and Trump’s favoured candidates are not performing anything like polling like that would suggest. Which begs the question, who is responding to polls and who isn’t?

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What do you mean by "real votes"?
 
SteveS1 said:
Actual elections not polls.
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Yes, past real votes on the local level are encouraging. Although a Trump anointed candidate won in last week's special Ohio local election, the Ds came in a surpassingly strong second. This is part of the counter narrative to a Trump win but at the moment the national level doesn't look as encouraging. I think the Americans like to split the ticket which may partially explain that and the local/national economy split mentioned before. Maybe one of our American members can add some perspective on this.
 
Kirk said:
Yes, past real votes on the local level are encouraging. Although a Trump anointed candidate won in last week's special Ohio local election, the Ds came in a surpassingly strong second. This is part of the counter narrative to a Trump win but at the moment the national level doesn't look as encouraging. I think the Americans like to split the ticket which may partially explain that and the local/national economy split mentioned before. Maybe one of our American members can add some perspective on this.
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I think there is a serious question over whose voters are more likely to respond to polls too.
 
Forgive me if it's been posted upthread - but are not many of the polls themselves tools owned and used by vested interest groups to help promote their preferred candidate(s) ?
 
SteveS1 said:
Tragic that some voters think enabling Trump will help the Gaza situation btw, hard to imagine anyone worse.
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I'm sure they don't prefer Trump. Just hard to bring themselves to vote for Biden.
The zionist, NRA, media mogul/billionaire pressure lobbies are so strong they have destroyed choice/democracy.
 
wacko said:
I'm sure they don't prefer Trump. Just hard to bring themselves to vote for Biden.
The zionist, NRA, media mogul/billionaire pressure lobbies are so strong they have destroyed choice/democracy.
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I totally get and share their feelings, but not voting when the alternative is so much worse is plain nuts. By all means put the squeeze on when the Maga loons have been defeated.
 
If Trump were to win, he has said what he’d do immediately, which is terrifying in prospect and ushers in a fascist USA. Do we think that would drive the coastal states, California and some on the East, to secede from the Union?
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
If Trump were to win, he has said what he’d do immediately, which is terrifying in prospect and ushers in a fascist USA. Do we think that would drive the coastal states, California and some on the East, to secede from the Union?
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It's a great point. Is there precedent where a state has come close and explored the mechanics of it?
 
Nic Robinson said:
It's a great point. Is there precedent where a state has come close and explored the mechanics of it?
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A number did 163 years ago - it didn't end well for anyone... IIRC, a state can only secede with the approval of all the others. California being about the eighth largest economy in the world, I can't see permission being forthcoming.
 
tones said:
A number did 163 years ago - it didn't end well for anyone... IIRC, a state can only secede with the approval of all the others. California being about the eighth largest economy in the world, I can't see permission being forthcoming.
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I was thinking more recently obviously!
 
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