Post-Trump: III (decline, further tantrums, legal proceedings, book deals etc)

[SteveS1]

Polling by GOP supporting companies seeking to create momentum where there is none should be treated with caution. There is nothing to suggest Trump is expending beyond a very noisy base and he will need to, even in those 4 or 5 states. Meanwhile, actual votes for real elections featuring MAGA backed candidates and Trump’s own primary results are significantly shy of 2020, never mind 2016.

Complacency may be a danger especially in the face of renewed GOP and judicial attempts at voter suppression, but scaremongering with little real basis plays to the ‘inevitability’ narrative that they are trying to foster.

I expect Trump to chicken out of the debate btw., already some client pundits clearing the path.

 

[matthewr]

Polling by GOP supporting companies seeking to create momentum where there is none should be treated with caution. There is nothing to suggest Trump is expending beyond a very noisy base and he will need to, even in those 4 or 5 states. Meanwhile, actual votes for real elections featuring MAGA backed candidates and Trump’s own primary results are significantly shy of 2020, never mind 2016.

You are completely missing changes in Biden's vote. Which is where the complacency comes from.

 

[SteveS1]

You are completely missing changes in Biden's vote. Which is where the complacency comes from.

I’m not missing that, if it’s anything like 2020 and mid-terms most of that will return when the chips are down. It may not, the opposition, as in the UK, are good at protest votes that achieve an even worse outcome than the one they are protesting about. I don’t think you’ll find much complacency, but of course that would be having to prove a negative.

In any event, I don’t expect most voters to tune in until at least September, when we will perhaps start getting a slightly clearer picture.

 

[matthewr]

I’m not missing that, if it’s anything like 2020 and mid-terms most of that will return when the chips are down.

But that's literally the complacency people are worried about! I.e. just assuming that all these votes will come back to Biden and not just stay at home.

I just don't understand how, given the stakes involved, and all the sustained evidence of shifts in voting sentiment in precisely the demographics and states that are crucial to Biden, that anyone would not be massively worried given it's likely to come down to to a few 10s of 1000s of votes in 3 or 4 states.

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency

 

[SteveS1]

But that's literally the complacency people are worried about! I.e. just assuming that all these votes will come back to Biden and not just stay at home.

I just don't understand how, given the stakes involved, and all the sustained evidence of shifts in voting sentiment in precisely the demographics and states that are crucial to Biden, that anyone would not be massively worried given it's likely to come down to to a few 10s of 1000s of votes in 3 or 4 states.

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make. With polling v the actual votes we are seeing them differ considerably. What can I say about complacency, other than I’m not and I’m pretty sure those campaigning against Trump are not.

I could try and believe Trump and his candidates are doing better than they actually are, as some sort of anti-complacency therapy if you think that would help. But looking at actual results - I don’t see Trump’s path has improved. The pressure is on for sure, but has been since the disaster of 2016.

 

[matthewr]

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make. With polling v the actual votes we are seeing them differ considerably. What can I say about complacency, other than I’m not and I’m pretty sure those campaigning against Trump are not.

I could try and believe Trump and his candidates are doing better than they actually are, as some sort of anti-complacency therapy if you think that would help. But looking at actual results - I don’t see Trump’s path has improved. The pressure is on for sure, but has been since the disaster of 2016.

Well it depends on how much you know about this election and polling. And you might, of course, know more than me, but I do listen to a lot of polling, voting analysis and focus groups from people who do a lot of this sort of thing and I do know about county level data, what a "Trump double no" is and so on. My concerns are largely based on that.

So to answer your question about how Trump's path has improved:

-- First 2020 was *incredibly* close. Overall 2024 is going to come down to somewhere between 100,000 and 300,000 spread across 6 states votes which in such a large voting population is obviously nothing.

-- Biden's black and brown vote has been showing signs of softening mostly because of inflation and the cost of living crisis that has disproportionally affected these voters who are overwhelmingly in lower income groups. All Dem presidential victories since 1992 have been based on a coalition bases on black and, brown voters.

-- There is also a extra effect with black men in certain age brackets and lower education levels (ie. people who didn't go beyond high school). This is worrying because a lot of these shifts in the polling are going to affect turnout rather than actually switching votes but the change being reliably shown in polling here is about Biden voters flipping to Trump. This appears, at least according to focus groups, to be a wanting a "strong leader" effect.

-- Biden won Arizona by 10,000 votes. That's nothing. Big Latino population, definitely in play for Trump. 11 electoral votes.

-- Nevada is similar demographically and although Biden's majority was 33,000 and it's only 6 electoral votes, 33k is still in bad weather in the wrong county and you lose territory.

-- Georgia. A naturally red state and a huge upset for Biden in 2020 for a number of reasons surrounding the various Senate races (Doug Jones, Stacey Abrams, etc.). First time it's voted for a Dem president since 1992. Biden won by 12k and is hugely reliant on the Black vote to have any chance (electorally the state is basically Atlanta + Columbus vs Everywhere Else). Looks a very likely Trump regain in 2024. 16 electoral votes.

-- Michigan. Michigan is *huge*. Part of the dems "Blue wall" on which they have based all their presidential wins in the last 40 years. Biden majority was 150k but it has some unique problems for him. Firstly, Dem strength here is based on Detroit because of a) unions from auto workers and b) the very large urban (i.e. black) vote. Union vote probably relaible but for black vote see above. Secondly, Michigan has a large Arab-American population (it's home to Dearborn the first Arab majority city in the US). This means Gaza and Biden's policy there is seriously affecting his vote. Also has two very large universities (Go Wolervines!) and a big student vote which is also Gaza sensitive. 15 electoral votes.

-- Pennsylvania (19 EV) and Wisconsin (10). Similar to MI but without the Arab complication. Both close races and in play for Trump (he won them in 2016) if not the concern that MI is.

-- On the plus side for Biden there is a significant softening for Trump amongst women voters (esp. college educated women and suburban women which are traditional GOP strengths) largely because of E. Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels. The one place where his terrible behaviour seems to be reliably affecting him does seem to be with women.

A lot of this is probably coming down to turnout and how these votes actually split on voting day. E.g. will the +Trump effects in the black vote be larger than the +Biden effect with suburban women. Overall, personally, I would give Trump AZ, NV and GA which takes him to 268. I don't think he will repeat his 2016 victories wins in PA or WI which would make MI the ballgame.

None of which is to say that Trump is going to win or that it will even be that close. Only that I find it head-scratchingly confusing that anyone would express any level of confidence in Biden winning in 2024. Eternal optimists like George Conway do seem to share your positive view that eventually, when push comes to shove, Trump is such an obviously terrible person that people will come to their senses and not vote for him.

But it's very thin gruel to assuage all of one's foreboding about November.

 

[droodzilla]

Also: being a terrible person is no obstacle to being elected.

 

[SteveS1]

Well it depends on how much you know about this election and polling. And you might, of course, know more than me, but I do listen to a lot of polling, voting analysis and focus groups from people who do a lot of this sort of thing and I do know about county level data, what a "Trump double no" is and so on. My concerns are largely based on that.

So to answer your question about how Trump's path has improved:

-- First 2020 was *incredibly* close. Overall 2024 is going to come down to somewhere between 100,000 and 300,000 spread across 6 states votes which in such a large voting population is obviously nothing.

-- Biden's black and brown vote has been showing signs of softening mostly because of inflation and the cost of living crisis that has disproportionally affected these voters who are overwhelmingly in lower income groups. All Dem presidential victories since 1992 have been based on a coalition bases on black and, brown voters.

-- There is also a extra effect with black men in certain age brackets and lower education levels (ie. people who didn't go beyond high school). This is worrying because a lot of these shifts in the polling are going to affect turnout rather than actually switching votes but the change being reliably shown in polling here is about Biden voters flipping to Trump. This appears, at least according to focus groups, to be a wanting a "strong leader" effect.

-- Biden won Arizona by 10,000 votes. That's nothing. Big Latino population, definitely in play for Trump. 11 electoral votes.

-- Nevada is similar demographically and although Biden's majority was 33,000 and it's only 6 electoral votes, 33k is still in bad weather in the wrong county and you lose territory.

-- Georgia. A naturally red state and a huge upset for Biden in 2020 for a number of reasons surrounding the various Senate races (Doug Jones, Stacey Abrams, etc.). First time it's voted for a Dem president since 1992. Biden won by 12k and is hugely reliant on the Black vote to have any chance (electorally the state is basically Atlanta + Columbus vs Everywhere Else). Looks a very likely Trump regain in 2024. 16 electoral votes.

-- Michigan. Michigan is *huge*. Part of the dems "Blue wall" on which they have based all their presidential wins in the last 40 years. Biden majority was 150k but it has some unique problems for him. Firstly, Dem strength here is based on Detroit because of a) unions from auto workers and b) the very large urban (i.e. black) vote. Union vote probably relaible but for black vote see above. Secondly, Michigan has a large Arab-American population (it's home to Dearborn the first Arab majority city in the US). This means Gaza and Biden's policy there is seriously affecting his vote. Also has two very large universities (Go Wolervines!) and a big student vote which is also Gaza sensitive. 15 electoral votes.

-- Pennsylvania (19 EV) and Wisconsin (10). Similar to MI but without the Arab complication. Both close races and in play for Trump (he won them in 2016) if not the concern that MI is.

-- On the plus side for Biden there is a significant softening for Trump amongst women voters (esp. college educated women and suburban women which are traditional GOP strengths) largely because of E. Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels. The one place where his terrible behaviour seems to be reliably affecting him does seem to be with women.

A lot of this is probably coming down to turnout and how these votes actually split on voting day. E.g. will the +Trump effects in the black vote be larger than the +Biden effect with suburban women. Overall, personally, I would give Trump AZ, NV and GA which takes him to 268. I don't think he will repeat his 2016 victories wins in PA or WI which would make MI the ballgame.

None of which is to say that Trump is going to win or that it will even be that close. Only that I find it head-scratchingly confusing that anyone would express any level of confidence in Biden winning in 2024. Eternal optimists like George Conway do seem to share your positive view that eventually, when push comes to shove, Trump is such an obviously terrible person that people will come to their senses and not vote for him.

But it's very thin gruel to assuage all of one's foreboding about November.

Indeed and good points all. I have studied all those areas you mention and as I said, the pressure has never been off since 2016. But in addition to the softening of votes, minorities for Biden women for Trump. I’m personally not convinced that the strong man card is as valid. Trump has been damaged since 2020, and 2022 albeit not nearly as much as he should be. But moving from there to the idea that there are many people who having never voted for Trump, suddenly think he’s their guy after all is not as credible in my opinion.

Reduced votes for Biden at a higher rate than reduced votes for Trump would seem to be the more realistic threat. But coming back to real votes as opposed to polling, there is still this significant gap between where polls are projecting and what Trump or his favoured candidates are actually achieving. Most voters will not be engaged at this stage but votes that have been cast are reliable and at every level the results have been consistently down for them, even in strong red areas with Ohio being the latest example.

Finally, Trump is still in an endless loop of personal difficulty and quite capable of talking himself into more. None of this is doing him any good with voters he will definitely need irrespective of Biden’s vote being subdued. Nobody should be relying on Trump self destructing but you have to note that some more notable Republicans are becoming a bit bolder. It could be a situation that gains momentum quite quickly, if Trump looks like he might not win, things among his biggest backers could change rapidly. To paraphrase Hemingway’s line from The Sun Also Rises, how did it go wrong? "Two ways, gradually then suddenly”.

 

[matthewr]

To which I would jus re-echo the point that I wished I shared your certainty because I don't.

 

[SteveS1]

To which I would jus re-echo the point that I wished I shared your certainty because I don't.

No reason why you should.

But it would wrong to describe what I’ve said to you as ‘certainty’, I happen to be more encouraged by actual election and primary results than I am some very dubious polling. I’m intrigued as to why you attribute such fearful weight to polling, which have been pretty poor predictors so far, while taking no real account of what has happened in pretty much every actual vote at district and state level since the mid-terms. Or the far from impressive Trump showings in GOP primaries for that matter. Two ways of looking at the same situation.

Personally I’m more worried by the vote suppression, election interference and partisan judicial meddling that I’m sure will be ramped up.


Interesting to note Paul Ryan’s comments today. The ‘base’ already have him as a RINO, but it will matter to some who are not.

 

[wow&flutter]

The Republicans have been very vocal about Hunter Biden but it may be about to bite them in the butt!

 

[matthewr]

But I’m intrigued as to why you attribute such fearful weight to polling, which has been pretty poor portents so far, while taking no real account what has happened in every actual vote at district and state level.

Well firstly it's not really just about polling. So your scepticism about black double no voters flipping would be, I suspect, somewhat reduced if you actually heard a black, Michigan focus group member say "I voted for Hilary in 2016 and Joe in 2020 but I think I am voting for Trump this time because these are tough times and we need a strong leader". Whom I gonna believe you or my own lying ears?

There is just much more to polling than the horse race coverage you get in the media, depending on how deep into the weeds you want to get. Another example: young Latinos are an increasing factor given we are 3 generations into significant Latin immigration to the US. They, counter-intuitively, lean Trump and are in favour of increased border security. So who the hell knows?

Also on the primary votes, how indicative are those exactly? Both candidates are effectively incumbents and yet while Trump is beset with a chunk of Hailey votes against Trump even though she has dropped out and Biden has a similar sized element voting "None of the above" mostly over Gaza and the economy (i.e. the things I am suggesting might cost him victory). Who knows who those votes are going to break in November? Again the point being that here is yet more uncertainty in this election

And again my claim is not that Trump is going to win, only that I think it's going to be very close and that carrying on as if Biden is a shoe-in seems complacent because all the evidence points to it being very close and that there is more than an usual amount of variance involved.

 

[SteveS1]

Well firstly it's not really just about polling. So your scepticism about black double no voters flipping would be, I suspect, somewhat reduced if you actually heard a black, Michigan focus group member say "I voted for Hilary in 2016 and Joe in 2020 but I think I am voting for Trump this time because these are tough times and we need a strong leader". Whom I gonna believe you or my own lying ears?

There is just much more to polling than the horse race coverage you get in the media, depending on how deep into the weeds you want to get. Another example: young Latinos are an increasing factor given we are 3 generations into significant Latin immigration to the US. They, counter-intuitively, lean Trump and are in favour of increased border security. So who the hell knows?

Also on the primary votes, how indicative are those exactly? Both candidates are effectively incumbents and yet while Trump is beset with a chunk of Hailey votes against Trump even though she has dropped out and Biden has a similar sized element voting "None of the above" mostly over Gaza and the economy (i.e. the things I am suggesting might cost him victory). Who knows who those votes are going to break in November? Again the point being that here is yet more uncertainty in this election

And again my claim is not that Trump is going to win, only that I think it's going to be very close and that carrying on as if Biden is a shoe-in seems complacent because all the evidence points to it being very close and that there is more than an usual amount of variance involved.

It was always going to be too close. It’s tragic that a candidate like Trump gets any votes at all.

There are many counter-intuitive individuals and groups, but the overall would be a hell of a lot more worrying if the actual votes so far had gone as many were fearing. We will see, there are many things in play yet. The existence of partisan judiciary with a corrupt SC is the only reason we are still having this conversation so anything can happen but at this point, there are signs that enough voters will not wear it. I prefer to be optimistic until real elections prove otherwise.

Also on the primary votes, how indicative are those exactly? Both candidates are effectively incumbents and yet while Trump is beset with a chunk of Hailey votes against Trump even though she has dropped out and Biden has a similar sized element voting "None of the above" mostly over Gaza and the economy (i.e. the things I am suggesting might cost him victory).

There is a considerable difference here in quantum of expected votes lost. In several GOP primaries Trump’s vote was down to levels that would have people running around with their hair on fire if they were Biden’s. We will have to find out whether Dem protest votes are just that as in the past, but a cursory glance of the very many interviews with Haley voters seem much more definite that they will never vote for Trump. It’s an open question as to whether some of those actually vote for Biden.

Then of course there is the RFK factor and whether his brand of conspiracy nonsense takes more from Trump or Biden. I can’t help feeling that deep state and medical paranoia is more a MAGA thing, but again we’ll see. Or put another way, RFK pulling out would worry me more.

 

[Kirk]

"The number of partisan-backed outlets designed to look like impartial news outlets has officially surpassed the number of real, local daily newspapers in the U.S."

https://x.com/stevenwaldman/status/1800558565725241439

 

[matthewr]

It was always going to be too close.

I think we can probably cut out a lot of the noise here. Fundamentally, from the totality of what I have listened to and read, I believe this election will not only be very close but there is a significant chance that Trump can win. I am not a "Trump will win" doomer I just don't believe we can say with any certainty that he won't. Hence, given the stakes, I worry about November.

It seems to me that you don't think this and that you are instead fairly confident Biden will win? Is this correct?

If you are *not* confident Biden will win and think it's a toss up then we basically agree.

If you are confident Biden will win then I would be grateful if you can you point me to some sources who argue this case?

 

[SteveS1]

I think we can probably cut out a lot of the noise here. Fundamentally, from the totality of what I have listened to and read, I believe this election will not only be very close but there is a significant chance that Trump can win. I am not a "Trump will win" doomer I just don't believe we can say with any certainty that he won't. Hence, given the stakes, I worry about November.

It seems to me that you don't think this and that you are instead fairly confident Biden will win? Is this correct?

If you are *not* confident Biden will win and think it's a toss up then we basically agree.

If you are confident Biden will win then I would be grateful if you can you point me to some sources who argue this case?

No point, it’s getting repetitive. I don’t see that Trump has the numbers going by real elections of any type since 2020. I also don’t see quite the slavish level of support from people who were on board when he did win. I’m far more concerned that a partisan judiciary may enable him to cheat, but as yet he is not completely out of the legal woods and quite a lot is to play out. I’m happy to leave it there, because we are wasting bandwidth and there is much that can go wrong either way.

 

[SteveS1]

The SC seeking to turn down the recent heat?

 

[Kirk]

No point, it’s getting repetitive. I don’t see that Trump has the numbers going by real elections of any type since 2020. I also don’t see quite the slavish level of support from people who were on board when he did win. I’m far more concerned that a partisan judiciary may enable him to cheat, but as yet he is not completely out of the legal woods and quite a lot is to play out. I’m happy to leave it there, because we are wasting bandwidth and there is much that can go wrong either way.

I think we sometimes forget how close the last election was; Biden won in the end but in four of the key six swings states, AZ, GA, WI and NV, the results were very close. And it's hard to gauge what will happen in MI (the fifth swing state) over Gaza this time around. His coalition is also fragmenting a bit - Latinos and African Americans drifting over to Trump and then we have the third party types. It could be death by a 1000 small cuts. There is a counter narrative of course but at the moment it looks like the election will be very close.

 

[SteveS1]

I think we sometimes forget how close the last election was; Biden won in the end but in four of the key six swings states, AZ, GA, WI and NV, the results were very close. And it's hard to gauge what will happen in MI (the fifth swing state) over Gaza this time around. His coalition is also fragmenting a bit - Latinos and African Americans drifting over to Trump and then we have the third party types. It could be death by a 1000 small cuts. There is a counter narrative of course but at the moment it looks like the election will be very close.

Quite a lot seems anecdotal as it does around Trump losing chunks of support among women and Haley voters, I can only go by real votes and unless you can point to any that show Trump’s favoured candidates doing well enough to suggest he has the numbers, I’m of the view that he will struggle to get what he needs. There is a serious attempt by groups affiliated to Trump to create the impression of momentum as well as disunity among the opposition. Do you think RFK’s conspiracy nonsense is taking more from MAGA conspiracy nuts or Biden’s support? I’ve yet to see much evidence either way. I’m not advocating complacency, just trying to keep some perspective when click driven media has an interest in scaring everyone to death.

The sleepy Joe narrative wasn’t helped by Trump's recent court naps and he’s at Hannibal Lector again today - how many more times? Yet Biden is the one who is losing it.

For poll watchers - Forbes major tracking poll has Biden ahead 53% chance of winning v Trump 47%. I’m not sure I want people thinking Biden is winning, perhaps it’s would encourage voters to think they could have a protest vote without consequence and so it goes on.

See Forbes poll at 5:27.

 

[Kirk]

Quite a lot seems anecdotal as it does around Trump losing chunks of support among women and Haley voters, I can only go by real votes and unless you can point to any that show Trump’s favoured candidates doing well enough to suggest he has the numbers, I’m of the view that he will struggle to get what he needs. There is a serious attempt by groups affiliated to Trump to create the impression of momentum as well as disunity among the opposition. Do you think RFK’s conspiracy nonsense is taking more from MAGA conspiracy nuts or Biden’s support? I’ve yet to see much evidence either way. I’m not advocating complacency, just trying to keep some perspective when click driven media has an interest in scaring everyone to death.

The sleepy Joe narrative wasn’t helped by Trump's recent court naps and he’s at Hannibal Lector again today - how many more times? Yet Biden is the one who is losing it.

For poll watchers - Forbes major tracking poll has Biden ahead 53% chance of winning v Trump 47%. I’m not sure I want people thinking Biden is winning, perhaps it’s would encourage voters to think they could have a protest vote without consequence and so it goes on.

See Forbes poll at 5:27.

The Economist had a new poll out yesterday. Basically, "we've launched our forecast model for the American election, which right now gives Trump a roughly two-in-three chance of beating Biden. When we unveiled a similar model around this time in 2020, it gave Biden an 83% chance of winning."

This one says neck and neck:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

About equal then but per 2020, the margins in most of the swing States are very small. The third party candidates could easily make a difference in these States (arguments on both sides about how RFK could impact the R and D votes). The Gaza vote could make a difference in MI. What's happening in those States is what really matters. It's also interesting that in State-level election polling, the Ds are doing quite well but on the national level the Ds (i.e. Biden) are struggling. A lot of local voters think their respective State economies are doing well but think the economy on the national level is not. They also think Trump will do a better job on the economy than Biden.