Cav
pfm Member
And that tells everything about your understanding of statistics.
Labour Leader: Keir Starmer IV
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russel
./_dazed_and_confused
Mullardman
Moderately extreme...
I was at school with Harold 'Fred' Shipman. Did I ever mention that?
Mullardman
Moderately extreme...
Most likely, yes. The Tories are undoubtedly nasty.
Not just responding to Cheese here...
When any of us declares a political allegiance.. we are not simply stating a preference for one or other 'brand'. We are actually signalling how we feel about our fellow citizens and their value.. both to us.. and to society at large.
Thing is.. living.. as we do.. in a 'Representative Democracy'....we are effectively forced to choose to vote for candidates from whatever party we think has policies most closely aligned to our own political views. A perfect match is unlikely.
Operating on that basis, I have long had cause to disagree with elements of Labour policy... but been in broad agreement with their 'intent'. OTOH, I have never been able to vote Tory.. because they have consistently and very clearly worked to undermine any and every policy designed to broaden access to opportunity, re-distribute wealth etc.
Furthermore.. and even more damning..they have frequently done so by corrupt or illegal means.
I can sleep nights...
You?
Joe Hutch
Mate of the bloke
Depends. Sometimes I sleep right through, sometimes, less so. I suffered from terrible insomnia in my 20s and 30s, and I didn't even vote Tory. So there you go.
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
I’d like some Treasury funded vouchers for use down the pub to incentivise me to get one. Of course I may end up not wishing to leave the Spoons to vote if the vouchers are generous enough.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
A very good opinion piece on the Hartlepool fiasco by Alex Niven
"Where the north is concerned, the party’s return to this elitist pre-2015 mode of operating has involved the repetition of tactics that failed to stop voters deserting the party in droves during the 2010s – an exodus pre-empted in the later New Labour years, when Peter Mandelson famously and erroneously claimed that Labour should not worry about voters in traditionally working-class areas because they had “nowhere else to go”. That Mandelson is now apparently a major presence in Starmer’s backroom team is both unfortunate and ironic."
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...england-north-east-disaster-hartlepool-labour
"Where the north is concerned, the party’s return to this elitist pre-2015 mode of operating has involved the repetition of tactics that failed to stop voters deserting the party in droves during the 2010s – an exodus pre-empted in the later New Labour years, when Peter Mandelson famously and erroneously claimed that Labour should not worry about voters in traditionally working-class areas because they had “nowhere else to go”. That Mandelson is now apparently a major presence in Starmer’s backroom team is both unfortunate and ironic."
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...england-north-east-disaster-hartlepool-labour
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
The demographic of the parties has changed, political fault lines have shifted. One party has embraced this, the other is in denial.
Tories won Hartlepool, Labour gained council seats in places like Chipping Norton and Tunbridge Wells. If they continue to pander to 'traditional' areas who are now proudly voting Tory, instead of going after the people the Conservatives have abandoned, they will get nowhere. The truth is many in Labour don't welcome the prospect of different voters, whereas the Tories have embraced them. They will do whatever they need to do - to win elections. Labour will continue to mourn and squabble.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Demographic change does not begin to explain Hartlepool
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
The new fault lines most certainly do. The Tories gambled correctly that by throwing their lot in with Farage and co that they would gain Labour votes and Labour would not come after their own.
Tony L
Administrator
Agreed. A lot of nail on head stuff there IMO. If Starmer continues on the current ‘flags and pints’ strategy I suspect Corbyn 19 far from represents the bottoming out point. I suspect they’ll move even further backwards next election.
My view is Labour’s problem is one of total dishonesty. They just are not approaching things from a perspective of ‘these are our core ideological beliefs, these are the things we can change for the better, these are the things we believe are repugnant and will fight against’, but looking at everything through a prism of (very poor quality) corporate marketing and trying to bend a manifesto together out of what they think might not actually alienate anyone. No voter anywhere is daft enough to buy that.
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
The problem is that nobody knows who or what Labour stands for. This is why Tories won in Hartlepool. The Labour vote has declined since Labour were last in power. Labour vote in Hartlepool was around 20,000 pre Blair, went up a little when Labour was in power then steadily declined to low teens before picking up again to 22,000 in 2017.
People in Hartlepool have felt abandoned by Labour, they had a brief period of hope before it was crushed yet again by Labour. Along comes a Tory government that offers them hope again, and they jump at it with a complete reversal of the Labour vote in 2019 of 15,000 to a Tory vote of 15,000 in 2021.
Labour is not going to get anywhere by chasing the gammon vote, the Tories have that sewn up and without a fundamental and unambiguous narrative of what Labour stands for in a sharply divided counrty, they’ll continue trying to please everyone and actually end up pleasing no one.
doctorf
left footed right winger
And that is why they are unlikely to gain power again in my lifetime.
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Tend to agree. If there is going to be a substantial challenge to the Tories, it will have to come from a party with fresh ideas setting out a new direction in a new and changing world with global priorities. At the moment Labour is wedded to old thinking from 20 years ago, which is as outdated and irrelevant as Labour’s attachment to the industrial working class
Cheese
Bitter lover
Politics in Germany are about to experience a major change with the next election. The departure of 'Mutti' (mummy) Angela Merkel will be a challenge for the country, and the outcome of the elections is more open than it ever was. But many observers expect a clear change of direction, with more women and more Greens. And a shipwreck for the SPD (social democrats), they make the same mistakes Labour are apparently doing, at least from what I read here. I don't know to what extent Germany is comparable to the UK, but it could give some information on how things could (or should ?) evolve in the UK.
I don't view the Tories as green sticky monsters like some on here do, but I certainly don't expect them to do even the slightest thing for the working class. So someone has to take up that job, and I see Labour for it. Let the Greens do the woke stuff their predominantly well-off electorate expects them to.
Why is the industrial working class irrelevant ? Is there no such class in the UK anymore, and aren't they the ones who are getting milked the most ?
I don't view the Tories as green sticky monsters like some on here do, but I certainly don't expect them to do even the slightest thing for the working class. So someone has to take up that job, and I see Labour for it. Let the Greens do the woke stuff their predominantly well-off electorate expects them to.
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Seanm
pfm Member
Demographic changes are important and I’m glad people are starting to talk about age in relation to the loss of previously safe Labour seats, rather than just banging on about Islington elites forsaking the ‘umble working class. But as Gav points out demographic shift doesn’t begin to explain Hartlepool: vote share doesn’t drop by 25% in 4 years because of demographics.
As Tom Hazeldine argues in this article, the Conservatives won Hartlepool from the left: Labour, bewilderingly, played up continuities with the New Labour years, while the Conservatives pushed the record of Tory Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen, whose schtick is economic development and nationalisation.
It’s absurd to write off “traditional” Labour safe seats, especially given the loss of Scotland, when very recent history, as well as Labour’s success stories in the most recent elections, show that they can be won with economic populism - which is also popular with Labour’s young and city-based voters.
Unless, of course, you think that economic populism is “pandering”. Lots of the people currently in charge of Labour certainly do. That “traditional” voters have been falling away is not news to them. Shifting right *culturally* in an attempt to recover them is a well-worn strategy. It’s never occurred to them to shift left *economically*. So their fatalism is quite consistent: racism didn’t work so it’s time to go after the shires! Demographics, dear boy, demographics!
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Good article by Tom Hazeldine. Lots of good analysis but the single sentence than leaps out is, “Through neglect [Labour has] poisoned its own well.”
What was neglect is now looking like a new policy direction.
Seanm
pfm Member
Yep. Harder, faster neglect.
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