Labour Leader: Keir Starmer IV

[Tony L]

Bit of a Rorschach test this one it seems.

Ha! As I say, far better to read the whole thing than a few points chunked-up on Twitter. It strikes me as pretty much on the money, including the conclusion (i.e. that things will likely shift back given time etc). There will always be a fair chunk of That London Labour who just don’t get The North, but speaking as someone who lives up in ‘the red wall’ it rings pretty much true as a poll. I suspect it is about where people are:

“Overall, our polling shows there are some common assumptions and suggestions about Red Wall residents that are indeed true: they are in favour of Brexit, prefer Boris Johnson and his party to Keir Starmer and Labour, and do not view Jeremy Corbyn nor his leadership of Labour with much fondness.

However, there are certainly signs that the Red Wall may come back to Labour, and that Keir Starmer has improved evaluations on the Labour Party somewhat in these key electoral battleground areas.“

PS Labour have a long road to recovery ahead, and I’ll be fascinated to see how they achieve it without ideology, policies or conviction!

 

[Seeker_UK]

What was interesting for me was that many of those polled thought that Keir Starmer had neither made the party better nor worse. That's a bit different from "he's absolutely f**ked it" that was all across the press following the elections last week and seems to be the consensus amongst many here.

The other one that was quite interesting is that voters thought the Conservatives had less respect for them than Labour. Seems it was a less important factor than other things like voting for a party led by someone who shared their view on important stuff to them, like Brexit, which still looms large despite "gettingitdun".

 

[Woodface]

The poll findings are interesting but nothing more than that, far from conclusive. They do illustrate that JC wasn’t the answer so change was needed. Starmer may or may not prove to be the solution.

 

[Seeker_UK]

The poll findings are interesting but nothing more than that, far from conclusive. They do illustrate that JC wasn’t the answer so change was needed. Starmer may or may not prove to be the solution.

Indeed. As @Seanm says, we'll all project our own pre-formed views on the poll.

 

[Mullardman]

I am convinced the politics of the left has to be coherent, powerful and focused. It needs to be based on a strong ideological core and unflinching moral compass. Just ‘not being something else’

So am I..which is why I'd really like to see at minimum..a formal 'Coalition of the Left'..at the very least. That could start now.. and could send a very powerful message, whilst actually demanding little if any 'surrender' between the paries of the left. As I've already said.. the Tories have quietly formed a coalition with UKIP/Brexit Party and elements at least of EDL and worse. The left should be doing the same, so that their combined voter share enhances their power, rather than fragmenting it. Imagine the effect of a joint.. highly publicised 'War Cabinet' of left leaning parties..deliberately and loudly excluding the right. Just the existence of such a thing might start sending a powerful message.

However.. from what I know of Green policy apart from the obvious.. Green Social and Economic policy for e.g is in many respects 'Labour without the baggage'... and all parties.. including the Tories like to claim Green credentials. So.. the Green Party message needs to much more strongly point out the overall socio-economic benefits of it's policies..as opposed to just the easily mocked 'tree hugging' aspect...and the other Left parties need to do the same.

Thing is..all of that needs to be set against the whole 'messaging' thing..which is a very real factor.. and the 'strong leader' thing...which also plays well to the great unwashed.

Quite how all of that could be achieved is beyond me.. but as a start I'd say that all left of centre parties need to send out a consistent 'Anybody but the Tories' message.. whilst constantly calling them out on their sleaze, corruption, anti democratic activities, racism and failure to 'level up'.

It seems to me that people have abandoned Labour in droves ... not because they don't believe in the best aspects of Labour principle and ambition.. but because they have been very successfully convinced that Labour let them down. All that from the party which has presided over 10 years of austerity, racist immigration policy, 150000 Covid deaths and an absolute shambles of a Brexit... not to mention the likely break down of the fragile NI peace and the the break up of the Union.

 

[Tony L]

So am I..which is why I'd really like to see at minimum..a formal 'coalition of the left'..at the very least.

Agreed. Though I suspect Labour would need to fully embrace electoral reform (PR) as a flagship policy and drop all the flag-waving authoritarianism for any of the other parties to even consider it. At present they are just way to the right of the other progressives.

 

[ks.234]

The poll findings are interesting but nothing more than that, far from conclusive. They do illustrate that JC wasn’t the answer so change was needed. Starmer may or may not prove to be the solution.

The figures for the big one in Hartlepool were Corbyn 22,000 votes in 2017. 15,000 in 2019 and in 2021 a complete reversal and 15,000 votes for the Tories.

The figures do not support the conclusion that Corbyn was the problem or that Starmer is a possible solution.

 

[Woodface]

The direction of travel across Europe appears rightwards, look at France as an example. This is rather worrying but shows how a change of leader alone is not the answer. Unfortunately Labour really needs to distil it’s offering down to 2-3 key pledges/policies; a lot of what we talk about on here may not land with the wider electorate.

I’ve worked in media for many years, one of the first things I learned is that I am not typical of the audience clients wish to reach. This holds equally true of people who are immersed in politics; people are motivated by the relatively mundane.

 

[Mullardman]

It's a World wide problem. Look at India, Turkey et.al. ..not to mention numerous right wing authoritarian religious regimes and others masquerading as Communist. (China, N.Korea).. plus the Gangster regime in Russia and other elements of the former USSR, and the USA teetering on the edge.. still.

 

[Seanm]

Indeed. As @Seanm says, we'll all project our own pre-formed views on the poll.

Indeed, although the value of polls like this is that they do sometimes serve to interrupt the stories we tell ourselves, at least for a moment (always easy to explain things away though).

I agree that one of the most interesting findings has to do with whether voters thought the Tories respect them more than Labour. That brought me up sort because I do actually think the Tories have shown them a *lot* more respect than Labour! First Brexit, then parading Mandelson around town: basically giving them the finger!

 

[Seeker_UK]

I agree that one of the most interesting findings has to do with whether voters thought the Tories respect them more than Labour. That brought me up sort because I do actually think the Tories have shown them a *lot* more respect than Labour! First Brexit, then parading Mandelson around town: basically giving them the finger!

I think it makes a case for politicians rethinking what the Electorate actually care about.

 

[Seeker_UK]

It's a World wide problem. Look at India, Turkey et.al. ..not to mention numerous right wing authoritarian religious regimes and others masquerading as Communist. (China, N.Korea).. plus the Gangster regime in Russia and other elements of the former USSR, and the USA teetering on the edge.. still.

Yes. IMHO, their winning tactic is to push the idea that prosperity for the population to prosper / survive in a World gone to rat-s**t is a zero-sum game; they'll make sure their country prospers at whatever the cost and b*gger the rest of the world. That seems to be a winning formula - people want reassurance that they'll be OK. If you can't convince people that if they vote for you, that'll be the outcome, then you'll lose. It's a bad assumption that the Electorate will go for being told it like it is without a workable, believable, easy to understand solution that doesn't adversely their standard of living.

TL;DR - the one making the pitch for the easy solutions will more likely win elections.

 

[kendo]

Yes. IMHO, their winning tactic is to push the idea that prosperity for the population to prosper / survive in a World gone to rat-s**t is a zero-sum game; they'll make sure their country prospers at whatever the cost and b*gger the rest of the world. That seems to be a winning formula - people want reassurance that they'll be OK. If you can't convince people that if they vote for you, that'll be the outcome, then you'll lose. It's a bad assumption that the Electorate will go for being told it like it is without a workable, believable, easy to understand solution that doesn't adversely their standard of living.

TL;DR - the one making the pitch for the easy solutions will more likely win elections.

Sunlit uplands and unicorns it is then, it worked for so many...

 

[Seanm]

I think it makes a case for politicians rethinking what the Electorate actually care about.

Labour seem most incurious about this. The fear is that if they actually ask - rather than incessantly telling people that they are listening - the answer might lead them to Preston.

 

[ks.234]

The direction of travel across Europe appears rightwards, look at France as an example. This is rather worrying but shows how a change of leader alone is not the answer. Unfortunately Labour really needs to distil it’s offering down to 2-3 key pledges/policies; a lot of what we talk about on here may not land with the wider electorate.

I’ve worked in media for many years, one of the first things I learned is that I am not typical of the audience clients wish to reach. This holds equally true of people who are immersed in politics; people are motivated by the relatively mundane.

I think this is fundamentally wrong if we’re talking about the planet rather than selling aspirational goods or politics.

One thing to poll posted by @Tony L shows is that the environment is not important, is is seen as a woke issue for snowflakes.

If we’re going to live in a sustainable world, we need urgent change regardless and irrespective of opinion polls

 

[Seeker_UK]

Sunlit uplands and unicorns it is then, it worked for so many...

If we’re going to live in a sustainable world, we need urgent change regardless and irrespective of opinion polls

If that's what the majority of people want and vote for, then that's what you get. The trick is to make the overcast foothills and horses seem more attractive.

Urgent change will only get support if you can make the case that people's standard of living won't be affected. Even that needs a politician / salesman; the softly spoken 'telling it to you straight' politician won't get votes if their election means your average voter is going to lose the convenience of their own car, cop a £10k bill to replace their central heating, get taxed to f*ckery to pay for all these green initiatives, stop you going to the boozer / restaurant / cinema because some people don't want to get vaccinated etc etc

 

[Seanm]

More on the "red wall": Tory votes *more* strongly related to (higher) income than elsewhere:

https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1394606184313888772?s=20

 

[ks.234]

If that's what the majority of people want and vote for, then that's what you get. The trick is to make the overcast foothills and horses seem more attractive.

Urgent change will only get support if you can make the case that people's standard of living won't be affected. Even that needs a politician / salesman; the softly spoken 'telling it to you straight' politician won't get votes if their election means your average voter is going to lose the convenience of their own car, cop a £10k bill to replace their central heating, get taxed to f*ckery to pay for all these green initiatives, stop you going to the boozer / restaurant / cinema because some people don't want to get vaccinated etc etc

Precisely. The case for change needs to be made, and policies developed that enable it, but the case isn’t being made and policies are not being developed, at least, not by the Labour Party. .

 

[Brian]

So am I..which is why I'd really like to see at minimum..a formal 'Coalition of the Left'..at the very least. That could start now.. and could send a very powerful message, whilst actually demanding little if any 'surrender' between the paries of the left. As I've already said.. the Tories have quietly formed a coalition with UKIP/Brexit Party and elements at least of EDL and worse. The left should be doing the same, so that their combined voter share enhances their power, rather than fragmenting it. Imagine the effect of a joint.. highly publicised 'War Cabinet' of left leaning parties..deliberately and loudly excluding the right. Just the existence of such a thing might start sending a powerful message.

However.. from what I know of Green policy apart from the obvious.. Green Social and Economic policy for e.g is in many respects 'Labour without the baggage'... and all parties.. including the Tories like to claim Green credentials. So.. the Green Party message needs to much more strongly point out the overall socio-economic benefits of it's policies..as opposed to just the easily mocked 'tree hugging' aspect...and the other Left parties need to do the same.

Thing is..all of that needs to be set against the whole 'messaging' thing..which is a very real factor.. and the 'strong leader' thing...which also plays well to the great unwashed.

Quite how all of that could be achieved is beyond me.. but as a start I'd say that all left of centre parties need to send out a consistent 'Anybody but the Tories' message.. whilst constantly calling them out on their sleaze, corruption, anti democratic activities, racism and failure to 'level up'.

It seems to me that people have abandoned Labour in droves ... not because they don't believe in the best aspects of Labour principle and ambition.. but because they have been very successfully convinced that Labour let them down. All that from the party which has presided over 10 years of austerity, racist immigration policy, 150000 Covid deaths and an absolute shambles of a Brexit... not to mention the likely break down of the fragile NI peace and the the break up of the Union.

Agreed.

Quite a few members here are described in your final paragraph.

 

[notaclue]

Desperation overdrive https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1394564641850896386

I hear that the final throw of the dice will be to train him as a singer and try and get him on Britain's Got Talent.