ks.234
Half way to Infinity
I saw one today, though I am staying 50 miles north of the South Coast.
General Election 2024
- Thread starter gavreid
- Start date
mandryka
pfm Member
I hope you'll analyse the result on Thursday like you analysed the results in 2019 @Seanm . What's happened to all those Conservative voters who were doing quite well for themselves and so voted Tory for more of the same? And all those nasty racists who had no better place to go than the Conservative party in the past?
Something's happened between 2019 and 2024 which has caused this, my view is that Partygate was the last straw even for property owning boomers, but I could be wrong.
Something's happened between 2019 and 2024 which has caused this, my view is that Partygate was the last straw even for property owning boomers, but I could be wrong.
Tony L
Administrator
I would have thought Truss and her Tufton St “brain” trashing the economy would have left a mark too. Those with standard savings, pensions and savings did very badly, as did anyone with a legitimate business, it’s only the Tory inner circle of hedge fund managers in the know who cleaned up.
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
I think it was the utter failure of Brexit. We Got It Done and it, or anything else, just ain’t got done. It’s almost as if they weren’t telling the truth about the sunlit uplands.
I think Brexit shattered the illusion that the Tories can be trusted with the economy.
Seanm
pfm Member
Single biggest issue, beyond the Tories’ sheer inability to govern, has been the press withdrawing their support, and letting it be known that they cannot govern. They switched sides and I don’t think there’s much more to it than that.
I don’t attribute absolute power to the media in any general sense, but when politics is basically shit panto - detached from reality, exhausted, unable to offer solutions to the many crises facing the country, lacking organic support, practiced by very unappealing people - then it’s make or break.
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
Isn't there a bit of a contradiction in what you're saying: if the media has no absolute power but just shifts with the prevailing wind, and politics is shit panto, and Labour and Tories are just two cheeks of the same unappealing arse (I hope I'm not distorting any of your thoughts too badly), how come Labour has gone in a few short years from losing consecutive general elections against pretty weak Tories (bumbling May, corrupt dilettante Johnson) to "20 points ahead in the polls" and looking forward to a landslide? Those three statements can't all be true at the same time.
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
It's pretty simple to grasp that 'raising their voice' isn't what I was referring to when I said only the US can influence Israel over what is happening in Gaza and Labour can't do anything. I'm on about stuff such as bringing an end to it rather than just making noises that make you feel better but nothing changes.
After saying that, Labour has 'raised its voice' and has been calling for a ceasefire.
UK parties on Gaza
Has that, and shouts from the SNP among others, influenced Israel much?
What do you want Labour to do? Can you confirm you at least want a ceasefire?
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Everyone with a conscience has been calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. Labour could be calling on the UK to suspend arms sales to Isreal, and promise to do so once in power until a ceasefire is announced
They can’t though, for, as ever, economic reasons.
Seanm
pfm Member
I don't think they shift with the prevailing wind, far from it. I think they have an agenda which they pursue relentlessly, and that their influence can be decisive - but only under the conditions I outline above, where nothing is really real. Like, Sunak is not much worse than May or Johnson - not 25 points in an election worse. If the Conservatives really had some answers to the country's problems, or real organic support, they wouldn't be experiencing this kind of volatility. But they don't, so their popular support depends on whether or not the media chooses to make that obvious.
Labour are now occupying that same space: they have no answers, have deliberately dismantled their own base, and are entirely reliant on whether or not the media support or attack them. That's all IMO: obviously, if the media turn on them and they maintain the same level of popular support I'll be proved wrong.
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
Much of the electorate is heavily influenced by the media and the media being pro-tory and against Labour since Brown took over from Blair is a large factor in why we've had a tory govt for 14 years.
Obviously if and when the media turn against Labour their support will drop no matter what they have achieved. It happened in 2010 after a period of very sound Labour govt.
You don't know Labour have no answers.
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
It may make you feel better but that's all.
Perhaps Labour will make this call next week should they be elected, however, it is unlikely to have any influence on what is happening in Gaza. I don't believe anyone will take a blind bit of notice of words from the UK govt let alone UK opposition parties.
Spraggons Den
pfm Member
Nah, Starmer made no impression on the polls until Partgate when the position of the two main parties flipped until Truss came along and the gap widened further and to such an extent that the Tories have been unable to recover. The media didn't engineer either of those events. Simples.
Seanm
pfm Member
If they have any answers, beyond what has been tried in some form or another since the 2008 crash, they are being very quiet about them. But sure, I can't know. They might have all the answers, I hope they do.
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
That would say media power is considerable, even if it's not absolute. While only a fool would underestimate the influence of media in the UK, it is declining. And what made them jump ship? The shear hopelessness of end-of-the-line Tories, one scandal too many (I know, hard to believe), or something else?
Could it also be that Labour 2024 somehow manages to attract a greater number of voters than Labour 2019, and the press just likes to back a winner?
Seanm
pfm Member
Yes, Partygate was when the press withdrew their support. The two main parties flipped when the press flipped. Truss sealed it, but Truss would never have happened if the press hadn't decided to knife Johnson. And even Truss would have looked very different if the press had supported her while attacking Starmer.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
That'll be interesting - clearly they will but by how much? Labour still polled more than 10 million votes in 2019 which was a million more than in 2015!!! Blair failed to poll 10m in 2005 in a very low turnout of his own making. It'll be a test for Starmer to see if he beats the 12.9 million of 2017 even with the increase in the adult population...
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Best keep quiet about the UK arming genocide then. Do nothing. Not even a fag paper between Tory and Labour.
Seanm
pfm Member
Yes, it is considerable: but what I'm saying is it's not static, it's less considerable under different political conditions. When politics is empty bollocks then the media, which trades chiefly in empty bollocks, is at peak influence.
The biggest factor leading the media to jump ship was the defeat of the Labour left. Once it became clear that Starmer would manage in the interests of the establishment Labour looked a much better bet than the Tories. (The Conservative Party has been a corpse for many years.) This is what I mean when I say that the parties have to be offering broadly the same thing, in order for the media to have not only influence but discretion.
I think to imagine the press just likes to back a winner, you have to imagine that they have no ideological preferences of their own, and very clearly they do. At one stage, remember, Corbyn's Labour was quite far ahead of May's Conservatives in the polls. Did the press flip? Can you imagine them doing so?
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
They have to be quiet so as not to wake up the media.
Finnegan
It’s shite being Scottish!
The media is undoubtedly an influence. But if the almost universal Tory support among the U.K. media was/ is responsible for a Tory government, then I can’t think why they are now tanking to probably the worst election result in their history. And they began tanking before Murdoch withdrew his support.
Murdoch might be the most despicable stain on humanity, but he doesn’t usually need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Just as with Blair in 97, Rupert likes to back the winning side. And you don’t need a more reliable weather vane than the support of Murdoch and The Spectator to discern that the bosses are relaxed about a Labour government under Starmer because Starmer poses no threat whatsoever to Murdoch and his disgraceful ilk.
Murdoch might be the most despicable stain on humanity, but he doesn’t usually need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Just as with Blair in 97, Rupert likes to back the winning side. And you don’t need a more reliable weather vane than the support of Murdoch and The Spectator to discern that the bosses are relaxed about a Labour government under Starmer because Starmer poses no threat whatsoever to Murdoch and his disgraceful ilk.