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General Election 2024

Nah, Starmer made no impression on the polls until Partgate when the position of the two main parties flipped until Truss came along and the gap widened further and to such an extent that the Tories have been unable to recover. The media didn't engineer either of those events. Simples.

Those were events that can be amplified or ignored. The ignorance of Gaza is, for example, an issue that has not penetrated because it hasn’t been made an issue in this election by those who choose not to mention it’s omission
 
There's no point in guessing now really, we have wait to see how different cohorts actually voted. One factor, which I don't think anyone's mentioned here, is that maybe a significant number of 2019's Tory voters can't bring themselves to support a brown skinned PM.
 
Nah, Starmer made no impression on the polls until Partgate when the position of the two main parties flipped until Truss came along and the gap widened further and to such an extent that the Tories have been unable to recover. The media didn't engineer either of those events. Simples.
The Tories had a boost for a while when vaccines were rolled out but it faded quite quickly. The Tory lead collapsed with Truss but labour has dropped back to the same 40% level that it's had pretty consistently
 
Best keep quiet about the UK arming genocide then. Do nothing. Not even a fag paper between Tory and Labour.
If you are genuinely bothered by the UK arming genocide you should focus on criticising the UK govt, not the opposition. It looks like criticising Labour is the main thing.

What do you mean by 'do nothing'? The opposition can't set UK foreign policy.

I'm pretty sure we'll see differences between Labour and tory should Labour be elected, but why do you demand more than a fag paper difference between Labour and tory on anything and everything that bothers you? You don't support Labour, after all. Can't you find a party with an ideology that falls into line with your own?
 
There's no point in guessing now really, we have wait to see how different cohorts actually voted. One factor, which I don't think anyone's mentioned here, is that maybe a significant number of 2019's Tory voters can't bring themselves to support a brown skinned PM.
It’s been mentioned. It’s significant that the wider party chose Truss over Sunak, and it’s of little doubt that racism played a large part in that process. They changed the rules to prevent the racists voting; the parliamentary party realised that Sunak was at least a bit more competent than the batshit crazy Truss, even if his complexion was less than desirable.

I also genuinely believe that there is a significant cohort of old school, Disraeli One Nation Tories, for whom the current crop of ultra right wing free marketeers is beyond the pale. Of course they’ll never vote Labour, but they probably won’t vote at all, further eating into their overall total.
 
They have to be quiet so as not to wake up the media.
It’s a lovely thought, but pretty fanciful given the people involved. Maybe they’ve been playing the long game, *pretending* to rule out left wing solutions their entire careers, in the hope of one day having the chance to put them into action, pissing off the powerful people to whom they owe their positions. You never know!
 
If you are genuinely bothered by the UK arming genocide you should focus on criticising the UK govt, not the opposition. It looks like criticising Labour is the main thing.

What do you mean by 'do nothing'? The opposition can't set UK foreign policy.

I'm pretty sure we'll see differences between Labour and tory should Labour be elected, but why do you demand more than a fag paper difference between Labour and tory on anything and everything that bothers you? You don't support Labour, after all. Can't you find a party with an ideology that falls into line with your own?
No. I don’t support Labour. They are ironclad supporters of genocide.

Yes, I have found a party who fall more in line with my own social democratic ideology.
 
There's no point in guessing now really, we have wait to see how different cohorts actually voted. One factor, which I don't think anyone's mentioned here, is that maybe a significant number of 2019's Tory voters can't bring themselves to support a brown skinned PM.

It wouldn’t surprise me if that was a big factor in the size of the Reform vote. The Owen Jones video I posted upthread from Truss’s constituency in Norfolk highlighted the racism in the Tory voter demographic. It has always been there, and now the racist right have a real home of their own.

FWIW I’m increasingly worried that Reform might exceed all expectations and maybe get several more seats than the top-end of the poll estimates. Their voteshare will be depressingly high. The racist far-right are clearly on the ascendency and huge numbers of people seem to be falling for the BBC-friendly public school millionaire veneer they have stuck on reheated Oswald Mosley/National Front content. I still think they will merge with the Tories, but NF policies are now well and truly mainstream now.

PS A low turnout (“a plague on all their houses”) wouldn’t surprise me either, which could lead to some really unpredictable outcomes. My feeling is this is all very far from a forgone conclusion and the polling may be way out. I’ve never known an election this negative.
 
It’s a lovely thought, but pretty fanciful given the people involved. Maybe they’ve been playing the long game, *pretending* to rule out left wing solutions their entire careers, in the hope of one day having the chance to put them into action, pissing off the powerful people to whom they owe their positions. You never know!
All I hope for in the next 5 years is a halt to the right leaning trajectory with a small shift back in a left direction. That's all. There is nothing fanciful in that. What is fanciful is thinking there can be a massive lurch to the centre left. It can't happen, the media won't allow it.

The iron grip of the right has taken decades to get where we are now, it will take beyond the rest of my life to get to where I prefer so I won't see it but we have to start somewhere. Anyone accepting more tory time in govt because Labour isn't left wing enough need to take a good look at themselves, frankly.

This is exactly what I said a number of years ago here, it didn't go down well then and I expect nothing better now, but I've seen nothing to suggest I'm wrong.
 
No. I don’t support Labour. They are ironclad supporters of genocide.

Yes, I have found a party who fall more in line with my own social democratic ideology.
Good. I have no idea which party it is, they are all neoliberal when it comes down to it. It's the time in which we live, unfortunately.

Why do you prefer to focus entirely on Labour rather than posting positively about the party you support? In what way are they different to Labour? I assume they can't win under FPTP so could be making all manner of declarations they will never be judged on. What they promise may not even be porkies, it could just be impossible stuff. Any evidence they will do what you demand?
 
I have a feeling Starmer will be brought down by the media cosh before long.

We are already hearing about Starmer the part timer.

Then there's the £76,000 of freebies.

He's not even PM yet.
Makes me wonder how much more sh*t is heading his way.
Deja vu all over again.
 
It wouldn’t surprise me if that was a big factor in the size of the Reform vote. The Owen Jones video I posted upthread from Truss’s constituency in Norfolk highlighted the racism in the Tory voter demographic. It has always been there, and now the racist right have a real home of their own.

FWIW I’m increasingly worried that Reform might exceed all expectations and maybe get several more seats than the top-end of the poll estimates. Their voteshare will be depressingly high. The racist far-right are clearly on the ascendency and huge numbers of people seem to be falling for the BBC-friendly public school millionaire veneer they have stuck on reheated Oswald Mosley/National Front content. I still think they will merge with the Tories, but NF policies are now well and truly mainstream now.

PS A low turnout (“a plague on all their houses”) wouldn’t surprise me either, which could lead to some really unpredictable outcomes. My feeling is this is all very far from a forgone conclusion and the polling may be way out. I’ve never known an election this negative.
I'm wondering if reform will get more votes than the tories...

It could be the much needed death of the tory party as its fascist members jump ship. I have a hope not all tory voters are actual fascists and are in denial, so some will be left.

This could present the opportunity needed for a move to the left as the current tory support is split between the real fascists and the semi-sensible types looking for a new party.
 
All I hope for in the next 5 years is a halt to the right leaning trajectory with a small shift back in a left direction. That's all. There is nothing fanciful in that. What is fanciful is thinking there can be a massive lurch to the centre left. It can't happen, the media won't allow it.

The iron grip of the right has taken decades to get where we are now, it will take beyond the rest of my life to get to where I prefer so I won't see it but we have to start somewhere. Anyone accepting more tory time in govt because Labour isn't left wing enough need to take a good look at themselves, frankly.

This is exactly what I said a number of years ago here, it didn't go down well then and I expect nothing better now, but I've seen nothing to suggest I'm wrong.
I don't necessarily disagree with the idea that the media won't allow a meaningful shift to the left but I would make a couple of points.

First, the current lot are using that as an excuse to do what they want to do anyway. And you might say well what difference does it make but it's best not to tell ourselves stories about who these people are. They have commitments, interests, values, support bases etc. that have nothing to do with the media.

Secondly, the media don't *always* have the power to block change. Given sufficient support a movement can get around the media to a degree. It took *a lot* to break the Labour left. It took ages and it cost them a lot in terms of credibility. They can't sustain that sort of thing indefinitely.

And then, the media can't go it alone. In order to stop the Labour left they needed the Labour right to feed them constant leaks, gossip, plots.

Anyway, nobody wants more Tory time and even if they did they're not getting it, so you can afford to let that bit drop.
 
Just for a bit of light relief... as some of you know I live in Truss's constituency. On the A47 just west of Wisbech one of the misguided ****ers that still wants to vote for the waste of space has erected a huge billboard with her smug face on it. Drove past it last week and someone had nailed a lettuce over her face. This was removed by the 'angry farmer' apparently but today it's back again. If I can I'll get a pic tomorrow as it's quite comical :D
 
Since when is it "hard left" to support the principle of Free Education enshrined in the UN treaties? Is the SNP "hard left"? It's a central component of Human Rights generally - or have you given up on that too in the name of Project Starman?

Brian was (not so secretively) a Brexit supporter... He's into 'sunlit uplands'.
 
Much of the electorate is heavily influenced by the media and the media being pro-tory and against Labour since Brown took over from Blair is a large factor in why we've had a tory govt for 14 years.

Have you forgotten Brexit? The willy of the peops?
 
Speaking of Labour's interests, support base etc. it's clear that as well as the media, the interest group that it will not challenge and that it will largely be governing *for* is finance. Daniela Gabor coined the term "derisking" to describe the process whereby governments make the world safe for private finance: she meant it critically but Labour have actually taken it up as one of their flagship ideas. Here she is on the implications:


Labour’s strategy raises a bigger set of questions about the type of state we want. Starmer’s vision for government-by-BlackRock reduces the question of state capacity to “how do I get BlackRock to invest in infrastructure assets?” This model involves the state in effect subsidising the privatisation of everyday life. This doesn’t only make it harder to bring public goods back into public ownership; it also allows big finance to tighten the grip on the social contract with citizens, and to become the ultimate arbiter of climate, energy and welfare politics, which will have profound distributional, structural and political consequences.

Already, BlackRock is betting on becoming a key provider of green energy infrastructure – though its actual commitment to tackling the climate crisis only extends so far. The firm has lobbied heavily against European proposals to regulate its lending to fossil fuel interests with penalties, and has instead called for voluntary climate commitments. It is aiming to rapidly grow its green energy profits by tapping the government subsidies that will probably be provided through Starmer’s GB Energy, and through the US Inflation Reduction Act.

But the profits BlackRock will hope to generate through investing in green energy are likely to come at a huge cost. In Britain, we know that the public ownership of green energy is more effective at lowering consumer bills, accelerating the green transition and creating good jobs. The risk is not only that our climate future will be vastly more expensive if actors such as BlackRock are driving it, but that this future will also produce a more unequal society, where citizens equate green measures with unaffordable public services. This may well provide the kindling for authoritarian, far-right fossil-fuel politics that reject the green transition and frame it as an assault on people’s living standards.
Pretty obviously a deal with the devil IMO, and the kind of thing that's driving popular support for the far right.
 
The media is undoubtedly an influence. But if the almost universal Tory support among the U.K. media was/ is responsible for a Tory government, then I can’t think why they are now tanking to probably the worst election result in their history. And they began tanking before Murdoch withdrew his support.

I’m far from thinking this is done yet. I’d not be surprised if all the propaganda about a “supermajority” (a made-up word that no supporter of FPTP has any right to use) may be working. I’m increasingly uneasy about Thursday. I suspect the right-wing/mainstream media larping a baked-in Tory defeat is a deliberate attempt at voter-suppression. A last-ditch cynical gaslighting attempt to sew seeds of apathy. Whether it works, or to what degree, I’ve no idea, but my suspicion is it could greatly benefit Reform and maybe the Tories. I certainly think this, plus Gaza, could really hit Labour’s turnout, and that could impact the outcome in all manner of ways. I can’t visualise all the variables, I’d not know where to put a bet, but something just isn’t right here IMHO.
 


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