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General Election 2024

gavreid said:
Corbyn losing would really take the shine off next week. We shouldn't underestimate just how difficult it is to run as an independent at a GE, you suddenly have no contacts list, no starting point etc etc. As I've said previously he left it very late anyway and a landslide will make it even harder. You need to have individual arguments with people worried about splitting the vote...
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But don't underestimate his popularity in Islington, and the extent of urban decay there.
 
Mullardman said:
Interesting contrast between that statement, and your lengthy response below.

And above, yes, you lay out a pretty comprehensive condemnation of Starmer, much of which is difficult to dispute. I've made clear on many occasions that I'm no Starmer fan, and for what it's worth now, I was pretty much OK with Corbyn's ambitions and his economics, though his leadership style left an awful lot to be desired.

One major element that you seem to leave out of the equation, is the power of the press and media. You know as well as I do that it was the UK Media, including elements within the BBC, which created the lasting image of Corbyn as a far left and dangerous character, anti-semite and terrorist lover with massive and ruinous socialist tax and spend plans. You know as well as I do that their depiction was deliberately distorted and damaging. In short, both the media and the establishment (is there a difference?) were terrified of him and set about destroying him. Sadly, he took the Labour Party down with him. Not intentionally or deliberately, but that was the effect of him 'scaring the horses' and being unable to 'sell' his perfectly reasonable policies.

Starmer has obviously courted the press, 'big money' etc.. so that, knowing that their 'pet' Tories have royally ****ed everythinhg up... at the very least are prepared to 'suspend hostilities', in return for what they perceive as a less threatening stance than Corbyn. Has he gone too far in that direction? Has he promised too much? Has he surrendered to the Neoliberal Consensus and Oligarchy? Almost certainly, but he's not the first and he also represents the only hope, in the short term, of ridding us of the rampant corruption, self interest and incompetence of the Tories. That is all any of us can hope for from this particular election and I'm all ears for anyone who can suggest a better alternative, at this point, or any way in which we can begin to break the hold which the international neolib conspiracy has on our Democracy.

(As an aside.. I'm firmly of the opinion that Capitalism is in its death throes. Throughout history, different economic models, from slavery, to feudalism, bullionism, mercantilism, capitalism and now the variant neoliberalism, have held precedence. None have been universally applied world wide at any one time, there is overlap, coexistence etc.., and elements of all remain.. but the dominance of Capitalism for the last couple of centuries is beginning to crumble. Sadly, the development of Democracy in parallel to Capitalism looks very much like it might also be on the way out. What will replace Capitalism and Democracy? I have no idea.. but as the World continues on its inevitable journey to destruction, the weight of History clearly points to some other system. It's not hard to imagine a system where 'value' resides in increasingly scarce resources such as clean air, open space, water, etc.. but enough for now.)

So, keeping it brief, I now find myself in the same situation as most of the population, and all of the Left of Centre population. I.E. Where now?
Yes, we might send a message to Starmer by boosting the Green and Neolib vote, but that is risky in many constituencies which Labour need to win.
What do you suggest? Would you sooner die on a hill of rejected left wing policy, or live to fight another day?

And above, yes, you lay out a pretty comprehensive condemnation of Starmer, much of which is difficult to dispute. I've made clear on many occasions that I'm no Starmer fan, and for what it's worth now, I was pretty much OK with Corbyn's ambitions and his economics, though his leadership style left an awful lot to be desired.

One major element that you seem to leave out of the equation, is the power of the press and media. You know as well as I do that it was the UK Media, including elements within the BBC, which created the lasting image of Corbyn as a far left and dangerous character, anti-semite and terrorist lover with massive and ruinous socialist tax and spend plans. You know as well as I do that their depiction was deliberately distorted and damaging. In short, both the media and the establishment (is there a difference?) were terrified of him and set about destroying him. Sadly, he took the Labour Party down with him. Not intentionally or deliberately, but that was the effect of him 'scaring the horses' and being unable to 'sell' his perfectly reasonable policies.

Starmer has obviously courted the press, 'big money' etc.. so that, knowing that their 'pet' Tories have royally ****ed everythinhg up... at the very least are prepared to 'suspend hostilities', in return for what they perceive as a less threatening stance than Corbyn. Has he gone too far in that direction? Has he promised too much? Has he surrendered to the Neoliberal Consensus and Oligarchy? Almost certainly, but he's not the first and he also represents the only hope, in the short term, of ridding us of the rampant corruption, self interest and incompetence of the Tories. That is all any of us can hope for from this particular election and I'm all ears for anyone who can suggest a better alternative, at this point, or any way in which we can begin to break the hold which the international neolib conspiracy has on our Democracy.

(As an aside.. I'm firmly of the opinion that Capitalism is in its death throes. Throughout history, different economic models, from slavery, to feudalism, bullionism, mercantilism, capitalism and now the variant neoliberalism, have held precedence. None have been universally applied world wide at any one time, there is overlap, coexistence etc.., and elements of all remain.. but the dominance of Capitalism for the last couple of centuries is beginning to crumble. Sadly, the development of Democracy in parallel to Capitalism looks very much like it might also be on the way out. What will replace Capitalism and Democracy? I have no idea.. but as the World continues on its inevitable journey to destruction, the weight of History clearly points to some other system. It's not hard to imagine a system where 'value' resides in increasingly scarce resources such as clean air, open space, water, etc.. but enough for now.)

So, keeping it brief, I now find myself in the same situation as most of the population, and all of the Left of Centre population. I.E. Where now?
Yes, we might send a message to Starmer by boosting the Green and Neolib vote, but that is risky in many constituencies which Labour need to win.
What do you suggest? Would you sooner die on a hill of rejected left wing policy, or live to fight another day?
Click to expand...
Excellent post. 👍
 
Less than a week to go and we have had 4 leaflets from Labour (very safe Labour seat) and nothing from the rest bar one from the Greens pertaining to the Ward bye-election that will held on the same day.

Lost cause?
 
mandryka said:
But don't underestimate his popularity in Islington, and the extent of urban decay there.
Click to expand...
This week the first constituency-specific poll of the campaign put Labour’s support at 43% and Corbyn’s at 29%. But when people were asked to pick directly between Corbyn and Labour, he was ahead, by 48% to 40%.

Canvassers from both sides say this mixed result points to the fact that quite a lot of local voters seem not to have noticed that the MP who has represented them for more than 40 years, and had a 26,000 majority in 2019, is no longer with the Labour party.

“We spoke to one person who said ‘I’ve already voted by post, and voted Labour – I love Jeremy,’” one Labour source said. “But you’ll knock on other doors and people go ‘no, not Labour. Oh, hang on, it’s not Jeremy any more.’”

www.theguardian.com

Jeremy Corbyn in final push to keep seat amid voter confusion in Islington North

Hundreds are knocking on doors for longtime MP, often having to remind voters that he is no longer Labour
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Starmer's performance on 5 Live this morning was impressive. He was lucid (after the Biden mumbling) and laid out most of the reasons I would or wouldn't vote for him.

There was one caller that puzzled me on the private school issue.
She had to put her child in a pay-for school because there were no state school places.

Considering the legal obligation to attend school, does anyone know if that is actually possible?
 
Mullardman said:
And above, yes, you lay out a pretty comprehensive condemnation of Starmer, much of which is difficult to dispute. I've made clear on many occasions that I'm no Starmer fan, and for what it's worth now, I was pretty much OK with Corbyn's ambitions and his economics, though his leadership style left an awful lot to be desired.

One major element that you seem to leave out of the equation, is the power of the press and media. You know as well as I do that it was the UK Media, including elements within the BBC, which created the lasting image of Corbyn as a far left and dangerous character, anti-semite and terrorist lover with massive and ruinous socialist tax and spend plans. You know as well as I do that their depiction was deliberately distorted and damaging. In short, both the media and the establishment (is there a difference?) were terrified of him and set about destroying him. Sadly, he took the Labour Party down with him. Not intentionally or deliberately, but that was the effect of him 'scaring the horses' and being unable to 'sell' his perfectly reasonable policies.

Starmer has obviously courted the press, 'big money' etc.. so that, knowing that their 'pet' Tories have royally ****ed everythinhg up... at the very least are prepared to 'suspend hostilities', in return for what they perceive as a less threatening stance than Corbyn. Has he gone too far in that direction? Has he promised too much? Has he surrendered to the Neoliberal Consensus and Oligarchy? Almost certainly, but he's not the first and he also represents the only hope, in the short term, of ridding us of the rampant corruption, self interest and incompetence of the Tories. That is all any of us can hope for from this particular election and I'm all ears for anyone who can suggest a better alternative, at this point, or any way in which we can begin to break the hold which the international neolib conspiracy has on our Democracy.

(As an aside.. I'm firmly of the opinion that Capitalism is in its death throes. Throughout history, different economic models, from slavery, to feudalism, bullionism, mercantilism, capitalism and now the variant neoliberalism, have held precedence. None have been universally applied world wide at any one time, there is overlap, coexistence etc.., and elements of all remain.. but the dominance of Capitalism for the last couple of centuries is beginning to crumble. Sadly, the development of Democracy in parallel to Capitalism looks very much like it might also be on the way out. What will replace Capitalism and Democracy? I have no idea.. but as the World continues on its inevitable journey to destruction, the weight of History clearly points to some other system. It's not hard to imagine a system where 'value' resides in increasingly scarce resources such as clean air, open space, water, etc.. but enough for now.)

So, keeping it brief, I now find myself in the same situation as most of the population, and all of the Left of Centre population. I.E. Where now?
Yes, we might send a message to Starmer by boosting the Green and Neolib vote, but that is risky in many constituencies which Labour need to win.
What do you suggest? Would you sooner die on a hill of rejected left wing policy, or live to fight another day?
Click to expand...
Thanks for your considered response. As I said, I share passionately your’s and others desperate desire to see the end of probably the most blatantly and venally corrupt U.K. administration of modern times. I just differ in that I really can’t see the advantage of dispatching the Tories only to usher in another administration that is, in essence, little different socially and economically.

George Orwell wrote “If there is hope, it lies with the Proles.” If Corbyn had properly harnessed the immense extra-parliamentary movement that was developing in parallel with his leadership, we might be in a different place today. Likewise, if while addressing the huge Gaza rallies in central London, he had announced his intention to form a left alternative bloc that would have harnessed both the immense anger with the Tories, and lukewarm at best anticipation of a Starmer government, again we might now be in a different place. Even the recent Great White Hope, Mick Lynch, now advocates a vote for Labour instead of pressing home the immense power of the RMT.

However, I acknowledge that these possibilities failed to materialise and today, we are where we are. Nevertheless, if there is any hope, it lies outwith the increasingly narrowing reforms offered by Parliamentary democracy. I am encouraged by movements like the huge pro-Palestinian rallies currently sweeping the globe, the student encampments, the revolts in Kenya and Sudan, the massive anti- Le Pen demos in France, as well as the recent huge public sector strikes, Black Lives Matter, Extinction Rebellion, Gilet Jaunes movements etc. And that is where I will continue to direct my efforts rather than await the meagre crumbs that might be tossed our way from Starmer.

One last thing, even if you’re prepared to give Starmer the benefit of the doubt, or assert that however ineffective he is, he is preferable to the Tories, his recent racist outburst under the auspices of The Scum, removed any doubt whatsoever from my mind as to what sort of person he is, where his priorities lie, or what his administration is likely to be like.
 
This thread keeps reminding me of the old joke about the person who, when asked for something, replied: "I keep telling people. There's no call for it!"

Yes, the LP is arguably 'better' than vampires like the Tories. But if you want genuine change then you're going to have to face up to it... and vote Green! Otherwise we'll remain stuck where the wealthy want us: Not saying what we want and need because we've decided in advance NOT to ask for it!

Time is running out - and I don't just mean for this election. if you have any children they will eventuallly judge you on this. It's time to stand up.

They may not get a majority. But if they get many more votes, and some seats, people can then see this is changing and take hope from it.
 
mandryka said:
But don't underestimate his popularity in Islington, and the extent of urban decay there.
Click to expand...
I'm not but I think it's a tough gig. They'll have been a fair turnover in the inner London constituencies since 2019 too. Slightly different but I'm just about old enough to remember Benn losing in Bristol after the boundary changes...
 
Minio said:
Starmers performance on 5 Live this morning was impressive.
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The private pension 25% tax-free lump sum thing was a bit weird. He announced that it was due to expire(?) and started rambling on about promises he couldn't keep and Liz Truss.

Then an hour later Labour spokesperson announced that he was talking about something else.

Um. OK.
 
Labour's opinion poll (average) lead has fallen from 53% in the autumn to 40% just now. How much further?

The 2nd random question is will the combined right wing vote be in the majority for the first time since the war (without looking it up but certainly since the Alliance days)? I still doubt that to answer my own question first.
 
Colin L said:
Yes, Ianucci is a traitor. He fails the Pink Fish purity test. How can he sleep at nights?
Personally, IDGAF what he does or does not accept. His talent is sufficient for me to admire him.
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Wind your neck in, I said nothing to suggest his acceptance of a gong lessened his immense talent. Completely up to him what he does. I merely made the point that, imo, it seems rather incongruous for a supposed satirical thorn in the side of the establishment to accept an (outdated) honour from the same establishment whose pomposity he purports to puncture.
 
gavreid said:
I'm not but I think it's a tough gig. They'll have been a fair turnover in the inner London constituencies since 2019 too. Slightly different but I'm just about old enough to remember Benn losing in Bristol after the boundary changes...
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Apparently there is some confusion whether he is standing independently or for the LP.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805657686496751649
 
Kirk said:
Er, he hasn't been elected yet but putting that aside for a moment, people change their minds. It's a healthy trait.
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You believe S'Kewer constantly changing his mind is healthy? For whom?

What makes you think he actually believed in, and intended to pursue, any of the pledges/promises he's reneged on?

Do you know what he actually believes in?

Answers on a naughty post card, to. . .

John
 
Kirk said:
Suspect they will do a Brussels + Trump. I'd rather not have them in Parliament.
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Every Reform candidate I've seen so far, is remarkably thick. They really do believe their own publicity and are just trotting out their ludicrous policies like parrots. Even their Messiah, Farage, can't sustain his arguments or policy proposals in the face of intelligent challenge and if he ever does get into Parliament to face political reality, he will be quickly exposed as the 'Liz Truss in Human Form', that Pie accurately described him as. A far right, self interested extreme neoliberal, using schoolboy level populism to fool the stupid. Fortunately, that same population of stupid would soon start to bite him once his House of Cards collapsed.

gavreid said:
Corbyn losing would really take the shine off next week. We shouldn't underestimate just how difficult it is to run as an independent at a GE, you suddenly have no contacts list, no starting point etc etc. As I've said previously he left it very late anyway and a landslide will make it even harder. You need to have individual arguments with people worried about splitting the vote...

Click to expand...
I'm not sufficiently informed about Corbyn's position locally, to pass comment. I'd like to see him win and act as a focus in Parliament for the Left..including Green and Lib Dem elements...though they might have different ideas.

That said, in raising the notion of the Political 'Independent', you point to some interesting issues. Corbyn and his ideology are of course well known, and anyone voting for him knows what they are getting. However, the use of 'Independent' labels can also be exceptionally dishonest.
It seems to be fortunately mostly confined to local politics at present, but this is what happened in my constituency a year or so back...

A neighbour and friend of mine is a lifelong Tory voter, as is her right, but what she fell for could catch out anyone who doesn't look a bit deeper into politics than the superficial labels. However, she is also disenchanted with the present lot, and was therefore delighted to find that in the last Local Elections here, a whole group of 'Independents' suddenly appeared. I cautioned against voting for any 'Independent' whose political motivations are obscured by the vagueness of the 'Independent' tag.. Sadly, she went ahead anyway and contributed to the victories of four candidates 'pushing' the 'grudge' agenda of their group leader. He was an ex Teacher, with some sort of grudge against the Local Council. A few moments of online research showed that he had recruited three relatives and paid all of their election expenses. Not something many people would put any effort into discovering. I'm still unsure what he achieved by getting elected. Another 'Independent' is a former BNP member, failed Ukip candidate etc.. who stood as 'Independent' and actually got elected to District Council. I know him well and he'll make a very acceptable candidate for Reform some day... Another self appointed 'Local Hero' whose online misogynist and racist views only came to light after his election, is still sitting on the Council. At least I tried...
 
gavreid said:
I'm sure Labour will be playing that card heavily - I'm surprised they didn't find a candidate called Corbyn! He certainly can win but he needs the foot soldiers and the opportunities to put the arguments to people face to face.
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Is his brother available? Given some recent additions to the LP he might fit in ...
 
Mullardman said:
Even their Messiah, Farage, can't sustain his arguments or policy proposals in the face of intelligent challenge and if he ever does get into Parliament to face political reality, he will be quickly exposed as the 'Liz Truss in Human Form', that Pie accurately described him as.
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Unlikely we'll see much of him in Parliament. As we saw with Nadine Dorries there's no sanction for MPs who can't be bothered turning up for months on end.

As an MEP his record of attending votes placed him 745th out of 746 MEPs.

(the single MEP below him had never voted because he was hospitalised)
 
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