General Election 2024

[kensalriser]

I can't help thinking that democracy might be better served if men lost the right to vote.

Until 2017 women reliably voted conservative more than men. I can't find the research now, but I have read that until then if only women had voted the Conservatives would have won every post universal suffrage election whereas if only men had voted Labour would have won all.

 

[Tony L]

Until 2017 women reliably voted conservative more than men. I can't find the research now, but I have read that until then if only women had voted the Conservatives would have won every post universal suffrage election whereas if only men had voted Labour would have won all.

I’d be interested to see a source for that. It is the opposite of my understanding, both here and in the USA. Opposite of demographic polling I’ve seen etc.

PS Some YouGov data here:

How is Britain voting as we enter the 2024 election year? | YouGov

The coalition that won the Conservatives the 2019 general election has crumbled

yougov.co.uk

As ever it highlights the older and less intelligent/educated one is the more likely one is to vote Tory.

 

[gavreid]

I’d be interested to see a source for that. It is the opposite of my understanding, both here and in the USA. Opposite of demographic polling I’ve seen etc.

PS Some YouGov data here:

How is Britain voting as we enter the 2024 election year? | YouGov

The coalition that won the Conservatives the 2019 general election has crumbled

yougov.co.uk

As ever it highlights the older and less intelligent/educated one is the more likely one is to vote Tory.

The recent change is down to younger voters there's a reason for a blue rinse rather than a red
I suspect Tony that it's more to do with experiences at work with many much older women (now) not having worked full time, or even at all, bitd.

Women, voting and the general election polls - UK in a changing Europe

Dr Rosalind Shorrocks looks at women voters, gender voting gaps, and the part women have to play in the outcome of the general election.

ukandeu.ac.uk

 

[wacko]

As ever it highlights the older and less intelligent/educated one is the more likely one is to vote Tory.

And a reason for Tory/Republican neglect of the education system in the UK and the USA.
All those right-wing 'think tanks' are not just twiddling their thumbs.

 

[Cesare]

As ever it highlights the older and less intelligent/educated one is the more likely one is to vote Tory.

When reading that, do remember that over a 1/3rd of the adult population now have a degree, which rises to over 50% for people under the age of 30, or somewhere like that. The idea that the 'educated' class is a subset is not actually the case, and represents the norm. I was actually quite taken by how consistent across education attainment the voting habits of the 18-34 group registered in that survey, suggesting that education really is not a useful indicator of voting intention.

 

[Tony L]

When reading that, do remember that over a 1/3rd of the adult population now have a degree, which rises to over 50% for people under the age of 30, or somewhere like that. The idea that the 'educated' class is a subset is not actually the case, and represents the norm. I was actually quite taken by how consistent across education attainment the voting habits of the 18-34 group registered in that survey, suggesting that education really is not a useful indicator of voting intention.

You need to factor age too. The majority of the Tory voting base, especially now, is old, and the educational divide was far greater then. I’m certain (non-elite) education now is vastly better than it was in my era. Whilst I detest him there is no doubt Blair had a big part in that.

 

[ks.234]

One also needs to factor that the UK has only been anything even vaguely approaching a democracy since 1928 (the date women won the vote).

Exactly. Democratic gains were made against a background of war and revolution. Since the 70’s there has been an ideological drive to reverse those gains. Neoliberalism is fundamentally undemocratic

 

[gavreid]

Whilst I detest him there is no doubt Blair had a big part in that.

People needed two salaries to support a family by then (it's how it evolved) and the economy needed those skills after the decline of manufacturing. As ever, the important test is whether Blair was leading internationally or whether he was playing catch up. The truth is he wasn't leading...

The Bologna process, if you remember that, was about the UK doing as little as possible to match the quality of degrees in France and Germany especially...

 

[matt j]

Whilst I detest him there is no doubt Blair had a big part in that.

He certainly created a whole industry based around students.

 

[Seanm]

If we did have two similar parties, i'd be happy. Instead the Tories have ceded the centre ground to Labour, and have chased extremist policies. That's why we have brexit, attempts to break international law by exporting asylum seekers, stupid policies which tanked the economy (Truss and her mates), and the 'hostile environment' which attacks the very values which we hold dear (windrush for example), to name a few.

I would like to believe that post-defeat analysis by the conservatives will lead to some soul searching, and an attempt to re-position the party so as to be electable again. This is not because I believe in their values, but I believe that the UK political system only works when we have a choice between alternative reasonable courses, and bad stuff happens when either party is considered unelectable. The conservatives have traditionally been very good at this, dropping leaders and vote loosing policies, and a return to the centre ground is the sane option. Let's hope sense prevails and this happens swiftly.

You don't see a problem with a two-party system where both parties represent broadly the same set of interests and values? I would say that's obviously very problematic in a democracy, and that's before we consider the fact that the interests and values in question do not enjoy very widespread support.

Many would argue that we are where we are because both parties competed very hard for an increasingly narrow economic "centre ground", and then tried to manage the widespread sense of disenfranchisement that followed by moving ever further to the right on social issues. I mean, we haven't really broken with that yet: the Tories' economic policies are broadly what they were 15 years ago, and broadly what Labour's are now. And the culture war stuff is also decades-old, just turned up to 11 in desperation.

 

[Ponty]

Huge numbers of Tory MPs standing down. Apparently already the biggest number ever ahead of any election.

Sinking ships and rats spring to mind...

I don’t blame them TBH. Politics is a brutal, hostile occupation. It must take a massive toll on personal lives. Many will walk into higher paid jobs with lower stress, out of the public eye and free from abuse. There will be some who will never command an MP’s salary in the real world. They’re more likely to want to try and cling on.

 

[wacko]

I don’t blame them TBH. Politics is a brutal, hostile occupation. It must take a massive toll on personal lives. Many will walk into higher paid jobs with lower stress, out of the public eye and free from abuse. There will be some who will never command an MP’s salary in the real world. They’re more likely to want to try and cling on.

Why do you think so ?
I imagine their jobs are less stressful than private sector with little responsibility, short working hours, usually Friday off, and long holidays. Many seem to find time for a second job...
Minister positions might be stressful if they have any conscience.

 

[Ponty]

Why do you think so ?
I imagine their jobs are less stressful than private sector with little responsibility, short working hours, usually Friday off, and long holidays. Many seem to find time for a second job...
Minister positions might be stressful if they have any conscience.

I think that’s very far from reality for most of them. Would you do it? I wouldn’t go anywhere near it for all the tea in China.

 

[paulfromcamden]

I imagine their jobs are less stressful than private sector with little responsibility, short working hours, usually Friday off, and long holidays. Many seem to find time for a second job...

You might think being a nurse on the Friday night shift in A&E is a tough gig but I doubt any of them are made of the same stuff as Michael Fabricant.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

You don't see a problem with a two-party system where both parties represent broadly the same set of interests and values? I would say that's obviously very problematic in a democracy, and that's before we consider the fact that the interests and values in question do not enjoy very widespread support.

Many would argue that we are where we are because both parties competed very hard for an increasingly narrow economic "centre ground", and then tried to manage the widespread sense of disenfranchisement that followed by moving ever further to the right on social issues.

I agree with this. If the only viable parties are both centre-ground and indistinguishable on many metrics, you really need some form of proportional representation to ensure minority interests are reflected in government. Without it, you don't have a credible claim to being a democracy.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

You might think being a nurse on the Friday night shift in A&E is a tough gig but I doubt any of them are made of the same stuff as Michael Fabricant.

To be fair, I suspect significant parts of Michael Fabricant aren't made of the same stuff as Michael Fabricant.

 

[paulfromcamden]

I don’t blame them TBH. Politics is a brutal, hostile occupation.... *sad Simon Bates music*

And they've only just realised this the day after an election is called that is almost certain to see them lose their seat?

Yeah. That'll be it.

 

[glenda]

I'm disappointed that I have yet to see a list of the usual has beens, b listers and washed up celebrities threatening to quit the country if a Labour government is elected.
Come on Myleen Klass, Jim Davidson, the ghost of Cilla Black, Jeanette Krankie, where are you?
Or maybe nothing will change under Labour?

 

[Ponty]

And they've only just realised this the day after an election is called that is almost certain to see them lose their seat?

Yeah. That'll be it.

Well, it’s generally a 4 - 5 year role, making now the best time to go. Not really sure why such a surprise.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Oh not a surprise, but I doubt the motivation is that it is felicitous timing for a smooth handover.