Yes, the number of tests needed starts to approach the number of individuals as infection rate goes up. The mathematicians have factored that in, being mathematically rather skilled as is their wont. At present the infection rate is<1% so low numbers of tests will cover it off.
Coronavirus - the new strain XII
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Seanm
pfm Member
I thought you’d copped to it!
Anyway, there’s obviously a range of options between laissez faire and police state, including a half-arsed combination of both, which is what we’ve actually had: selective authoritarianism (poor and black areas), selective economic and social restrictions (some areas have been more or less in lockdown for months), all of it ineffective because directionless, piecemeal, reactive, indifferent to scientific evidence and advice, incompetent, compromised by grift and clientelism, and lacking the key piece of the puzzle, which is proper economic support for those who need it. So, let’s try the opposite of all that before trying our hands at the police state thing.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I saw this a few months ago but didn't look into it any further
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02053-6
That's the one. You can start playing games with probability too, such that say reducing testing by a further X% would still narrow it down to pairs of patients that you can then test again if needed. This has a cost saving of Y at the expense of taking one unaffected individual out of circulation for another test cycle. Maybe this is a price worth paying. The difficulty of course is that this approach needs very reliable testing. One dud result sends the whole group down the garden path.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
NEU is calling for schools to close as part of the lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...085171f23ff949#block-5f9d78118f085171f23ff949
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...085171f23ff949#block-5f9d78118f085171f23ff949
Del monaco
Del Monaco
Having been in this situation where every member of staff has contracted the disease I totally agree with this. It is dangerous.
lordsummit
Moderator
Feeling your pain. I’m slowly watching my career and income dwindling away too. There’s a little light at the end of the tunnel in that I’ve been headhunted for something else, but it’s much further away, and I still have to convince someone I’m the right person. I can’t see what I’m doing now being able to continue. I’ve already lost loads of work due to theatres and productions not being able to work. There doesn’t seem to be an end, and whilst the financially secure and retired can pull up the drawbridge to the rest of the world, for those of us nearly fifty with mortgages like millstones it’s becoming a nightmare. No-one will want an extremely expensive fifty year old when you can have a cheap straight out of university graduate with half the on costs. Especially in these times.
Take care.
Del monaco
Del Monaco
Keep optimistic.I was in the same boat some months ago but managed to navigate myself through to opportunities. I see my life and career differently now. My best wishes for your future.
There are bleak times ahead for sure
However, I was born in 1953 when rationing was still in force. We're not there yet but even so the country got through it. Although what people now would make of only being allocated 1oz of cheese a week for instance I dread to think (some can't bear the thought of not going to Spain for a couple of weeks
However, I was born in 1953 when rationing was still in force. We're not there yet but even so the country got through it. Although what people now would make of only being allocated 1oz of cheese a week for instance I dread to think (some can't bear the thought of not going to Spain for a couple of weeks
Well not everyone can observe it, when their job requires them to be out and about all over the country. As you say it's pointless anyway as it has to end at some point, in which case we'll just be back here again in the future.
Yes they will. If you can make it happen when others can't, you are worth the money. In my work the well meaning 20-somethings were getting mauled and bullied by the hairy arsed managers. I came in and the hairy arsed managers took a beating or two so they no longer try it on. They can be pleasant with my young colleagues or they can have a different conversation with me. I'm not senior to them, but that's not important. We have since solved a couple of problems and are working on some more now that there is a bit more cooperation. I couldn't have made this happen in my 20s, few can. I'm sure that you have similar skills, find someone who needs them and sell it.
That's more cheese and eggs than I eat now, so bonus win for me!!
droodzilla
pfm Member
T&T cannot work when the numbers are so high, this was highlighted at the start & has come to pass. Capacity is irrelevant if people cannot be traced & then obey the edicts when they are. Anyway the plans have been leaked. Schools stay open all non essential shops, pubs & restaurants to close. Economy completely ruined for the foreseeable
HarryCrumb
pfm Member
Good luck with that one. With all the money the government wasted on the furlough scheme (apparently 3.5bn went missing through fraud) they could have built some more hospitals and the ones we have now wouldn’t be so full. Care homes should also have been financially bolstered. Fit and healthy people should be at work, earning money or completing education.
Where do you magic the doctors & nurses to staff hospitals? No easy answers
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