1. Things you need to know about the new ‘Conversations’ PM system:

    a) DO NOT REPLY TO THE NOTIFICATION EMAIL! I get them, not the intended recipient. I get a lot of them and I do not want them! It is just a notification, log into the site and reply from there.

    b) To delete old conversations use the ‘Leave conversation’ option. This is just delete by another name.
    Dismiss Notice

Coronavirus - the new strain IX

Discussion in 'off topic' started by gavreid, Jun 23, 2020.

  1. gintonic

    gintonic 50 shades of grey pussy cats

    possibly. If the demographic getting infected is less likely to need hospitalisation, then the relationship will be more loosely coupled. Hospital admission numbers are useful in the context of capacity.
     
  2. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Doesn't seem to be. PHE said yesterday "Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over."

    These are the points that I'm not really understanding - why does there seem to be so few cases with so many people not observing the safety measures? I don't think they're lying because hospitalisations would give the game away and they're flat-lining. I think we're going to see a significant rise in all the figures during August (but I hope I'm wrong)
     
  3. tonerei

    tonerei pfm Member

    Depends on age profile getting it possibly? In Ireland up tick in cases is now among younger age profiles. I am guessing that they will have a lesser hospital rate but the fear is they will spread it among all age groups if trends continue and hey presto we will move back to April/May figures
     
    gavreid likes this.
  4. gintonic

    gintonic 50 shades of grey pussy cats

    it would be interesting to understand the demographics of those >85.

    I have access through one our Royal Society grants to detailed data from our county. Around here its young people, but the numbers are tiny atm

    there are some interesting works i have seen, yet unpublished looking at demographics and the spread. In particular, ethnicity, the tendency to gather in large multigenerational familial groups, and live in extended families
     
    gavreid likes this.
  5. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    In France they're reporting big rises among young adults certainly. I think France and Spain are a week or two ahead of us again...
     
  6. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Yes I agree, but it's not limited to younger people and, as you say, they'll pass it on. That means many more people in hospital, there's no getting over it really but we're just not seeing it yet. That's the conundrum for me. I think it's because R must be still predominantly less than one but, probably, only just, and not in some parts of the country.
     
  7. Caledon1297

    Caledon1297 pfm Member

    In Scotland, over the past week, about half of the new cases have been in the 20 to 39 age group.
     
  8. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    I'm not surprised and I bet there's a lot of undiagnosed infection among younger people too. Perhaps older folk are more likely to get tested?
     
  9. Caledon1297

    Caledon1297 pfm Member

    The speculation seems to be that younger people are more likely to socialise, and, perhaps, less scrupulous in adhering to the rules, as 'lockdown' is eased?
     
  10. Caledon1297

    Caledon1297 pfm Member

    However, did I hear recently that there seems to be increasing suggestions, from around the world, that younger people are now being more affected by COVID-19, than had been the case previously?
     
  11. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    Yes, reports coming in from across Asia that seem to show that to be the case.
     
    Caledon1297 likes this.
  12. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    That would certainly be true if older people were being a lot more careful for whatever reason - which I can imagine to be true. Younger folk are more likely to be living, I won't say hand to mouth, but certainly month by month so don't have any cushion to fall back on, while others are just cavalier.

    Which reminds me there are 3 words in the English language ending in -shion - cushion, fashion and...
     
  13. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    Pashion.
     
    gavreid likes this.
  14. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    That was quick ;)
     
  15. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    Too easy. I can think of quite a few more. ;)
     
  16. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    It was a favorite of my English teacher - hard pre-internet
     
  17. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    Hushion and fushion.... if you're a Scot you'll know these.
     
    gavreid likes this.
  18. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    It's a good one. I'm resisting the temptation to google the answer for now.
     
  19. gassor

    gassor There may be more posts after this.

    Jeezo, it is patently obvious that if infections go up by say 30% then there will be more hospital admissions but it is extremely unlikely they would rise by exactly 30%. We have a highly sophisticated model that has been very reliable and you want to avoid it and use hospital admissions as the best indicator of infections in the community? Really? You would rather the government and medical authorities abandon the current approach of determining where we are and forget the 4200 figure because it doesn't suit your argument.
     
  20. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    I'm happy with that, obviously, but they don't seem to be increasing at all. I don't mean to be patronising, I don't have an argument, I'm just thinking aloud to provoke discussion, but it's my scientist's eye on the real data, the ONS is just modelling.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice