Would you vote for the Soubry/Umunna party?

[Stunsworth]

The Tory split is on for 11am, says Newsnight's Nicholas Watt. It will be Soubry, Wollaston and Allen.

It's certainly a loss of brains for the Tories - who can forget Wollaston's calm, clinical demolition of a repetitive and thoroughly weird May at the Health Select Committee hearing on Brexit?

A lot will depend on how Brexit goes, but we seem to be heading towards a period of increased anger and division as a country. The Internet is unlikely to help. No wonder the authorities have made plans for mass 'no deal' riots.

Brexit cuts across party lines, which it what leads to the bizarre situation where Corbyn and Rees-Mogg both want the same outcome - albeit that Corbyn only wants the poor to be rather poorer, where as Rees.Mogg wants them to be a lot poorer.

 

[gassor]

Rational v bonkers.

The readers can decide which*.

*opinions may vary

My money is on Robert

 

[stephen bennett]

Not long till we find out if true. Would presumably be Soubry, Wollaston and Allen.

"Paul Brand‏Verified account @PaulBrandITV
Speculation tonight that two or three Conservative MPs could be ready to resign as early as tomorrow.
9:27 PM - 19 Feb 2019"

Hard to predict where this could go. The early opinion polls (Survation and Sky) suggest it could go down well with voters. And the worse Brexit goes, the more support this group is likely to get.

Unless the 'independents' go for Tory marginals, they will just split the Labour vote and enable a Conservative majority.

What do they stand for that's different to Corbyn apart from Brexit?

It pi@@es me off for them to say the Labour is 'institutionally anti-Semitic'. It's an insult to the thousands of members who work hard every day to root our racism in the UK.

Stephen

 

[NeilR]

Yes and worth 10 Joan Ryans, for all his faults.

Are you sure?

https://twitter.com/andywigmore/status/1097946246277402625

 

[droodzilla]

Unless the 'independents' go for Tory marginals, they will just split the Labour vote and enable a Conservative majority.

What do they stand for that's different to Corbyn apart from Brexit?

It pi@@es me off for them to say the Labour is 'institutionally anti-Semitic'. It's an insult to the thousands of members who work hard every day to root our racism in the UK.

Stephen

Well said Stephen. It's a disgusting smear on the vast majority of activists who passionately oppose any form of racism. And the media lets it go, without challenge. Gaslighting on an epic scale and heartbreaking for people who have devoted their lives to fighting prejudice.

 

[h.g.]

What do they stand for that's different to Corbyn apart from Brexit?

They are not from the hard left and therefore can be trusted to compromise in order to produce workable solutions. Or the hard right if they pick up a few from the conservatives which they need to do. If they are to have an appeal I suspect this is where it will largely lie.

 

[gavreid]

The Tory split is on for 11am, says Newsnight's Nicholas Watt. It will be Soubry, Wollaston and Allen.

It's certainly a loss of brains for the Tories - who can forget Wollaston's calm, clinical demolition of a repetitive and thoroughly weird May at the Health Select Committee hearing on Brexit?

A lot will depend on how Brexit goes, but we seem to be heading towards a period of increased anger and division as a country. The Internet is unlikely to help. No wonder the authorities have made plans for mass 'no deal' riots.

Certainly if they join up the ex-Tories will be the leading lights among the Dead Centre.

 

[Seanm]

My thoughts FWIW

1) The bizarre paranoia of the left takes me back to my activist student days. Everything is always a plot! There are always secret enemies!

2) Corbyn's base will blame everything on this split. Forever. Whilst continuing to deny all fault on their and his part.

3) I am confused about whether we on the left should be calling for a GE as Corbyn has been urging for months or whether May is going to call a snap GE which she will surely win.

4) The return of the catastrophically awful Derek Hatton makes me yearn for the joy that was late period Ken.

5) The number one thing everyone should be thinking about now is Brexit and how to mitigate the damage.

This seems mean-spirited and also misplaced. It's an odd thing to survey the mess created by self-described centrists gleefully s____ing the bed and think, God, the British left are such bell ends.

It is literally a plot, by the way. I mean, it's one whose every move has been lovingly trailed in The Guardian and The Times, so not exactly secret, but it is still a plot.

Also, the idea that Corbyn's base is consumed with resentment at those who thwart them is well off the mark: it's the view of newspaper pundits raging at Twitter users. Activists are typically too preoccupied with getting things done to fixate on the predictable actions of blatant opportunists. We're also well aware that we're up against the entire establishment and so when we do want to vent some spleen the world's our oyster, really. Some pick on clowns like the IRG, others on local councils, others still are forensically focused on the Tories. Me, I like to shout at the media, because that's my trade, and at well-meaning professionals who find an excuse to put their own interests first, because that's a lot of my social scene.(And who do they blame? Professional types tend to blame...a lack of professionalism on the part of the leadership, and the ravaging partisanship of members. This too is predictable, but I still find it enraging.) Objectively I'm aware that the blame has to be spread pretty widely, to the point that the question of blame is almost beside the point.

 

[Tony L]

It pi@@es me off for them to say the Labour is 'institutionally anti-Semitic'. It's an insult to the thousands of members who work hard every day to root our racism in the UK.

There is however little doubt that the current Labour leadership have failed to handle the issue or protect Jewish members or MPs. I suspect Corbyn must take the blame for this as he apprars to allow an ideological hatred of Israel to cloud his judgement. Exactly the same paralysis and inaction we see over Brexit.

 

[Seanm]

They are not from the hard left and therefore can be trusted to compromise in order to produce workable solutions. Or the hard right if they pick up a few from the conservatives which they need to do. If they are to have an appeal I suspect this is where it will largely lie.

Workable solutions to what? If it's to the problem of an economy unbalanced in favour of finance, to the underrepresentation of working class voters, racism, and endless war, then trust me they are not interested in compromise: they are very committed to these things and they doing their absolute best to burn down the opposition party to prove it. Their actions are those of extremists.

 

[doctorf]

There is however little doubt that the current Labour leadership have failed to handle the issue or protect Jewish members or MPs. I suspect Corbyn must take the blame for this as he apprars to allow an ideological hatred of Israel to cloud his judgement. Exactly the same paralysis and inaction we see over Brexit.

Absolutely right.
The press can spread as much hatred and lies as they like, but you can't argue with some of the 8 who have left.
They have spent their lives in the Labour Party; if they haven't seen what's going on then no-one has.

 

[gavreid]

Absolutely right.
The press can spread as much hatred and lies as they like, but you can't argue with some of the 8 who have left.
They have spend their lives in the Labour Party; if they haven't seen what's going on then no-one has.

Their issue is that they hate the left. When they were in control it didn't matter now they're not they want out, and they have set out to inflict as much damage on those they leave behind as possible. The press lap it up and repeat the bile ad nauseum, and a few gullible people fall for it unfortunately.

 

[Seanm]

There is however little doubt that the current Labour leadership have failed to handle the issue or protect Jewish members or MPs. I suspect Corbyn must take the blame for this as he apprars to allow an ideological hatred of Israel to cloud his judgement. Exactly the same paralysis and inaction we see over Brexit.

The leader is, quite rightly, prevented from having anything to do with the disciplining of members. Again, the problem is not individuals and their personal whims are prejudices. Those who talk about institutional anti-semitism are closer to the mark, IMO, if we think of the term in the strict sense. Antisemitism is in no way endemic amongst either members or the leadership, although there are of course t__ts everywhere. But, institutionally, the party isn't equipped to deal with what antisemitism does exist, and so far no solution to this problem seems to be in sight. It's why they keep pushing this thing: there is some truth to it, unlike their professed anti-racism, progressive remainerism etc.

 

[Seanm]

Absolutely right.
The press can spread as much hatred and lies as they like, but you can't argue with some of the 8 who have left.
They have spent their lives in the Labour Party; if they haven't seen what's going on then no-one has.

Little more than two years ago, having just participated in a select committee on the issue, Umunna stated just that: he had never encountered any antisemitism in the party. Never, ever seen any evidence of it.

 

[droodzilla]

The thing that really pisses me off about this is that I've never (IIRC) seen support for 'other' at 17% before. This, it seems to me, is an indication of a growing discontent with the traditional parties and a move away from supporting them. If you add the 10% support for the Splitter Party to the 'other' you get more support than Labour is mustering. This is support that could otherwise go towards the Greens where a surge of support could really make a difference, on the basis that Caroline Lucas sometimes seems like the only grown up in Parliament. So the Splitters are also splitting the non-traditional party vote. My guess would be that the kids who are now disenchanted with Corbyn may well go to the Greens. I'm seriously thinking of backing them up on that.

Good point. Yes, there must be a risk that the IG will split the "centrist" vote, although the Lib-Dems have said they will cooperate with the group, while both remain distinct entities.

However, I don't agree with your claim that all those votes could otherwise go to the Green Party though. The Green Party is a progressive party, with policies akin to those of the 2017 Labour Party manifesto. I'd be very comfortable with a Labour-Green coalition. The only reason the Greens aren't slaughtered in the media is not because Lucas is "the only grown-up" in the room; it's because they're nowhere near becoming a credible electoral force. The moment they do so, I guarantee that the full force of the far-right press will be turned against them, and any old shite about Caroline Lucas' past will be served up as a hot scoop.

The IG and the Lib-Dems are different beasts entirely. Essentially, they want everything to stay the same but just a little bit "nicer" - New Labour, in all but name. That's a valid message but it's hardly an inspiring one and, once people see beyond the shock of the apparently new, it's not going to attract voters who want real change. In its favour, the IG will be endlessly promoted by certain sections of the media (e.g. the BBC) and its already apparent flaws will barely be scrutinised because it (claims to) represent the "common sense" of that section of society.

My prediction: the IG will be a flash in the plan (an awesome ego trip for all concerned while it lasts though) but it increases the probabilty of both another Tory government and (if Soubry et. al. join) a harder Tory Brexit. I see little to cheer about, even for "centrists".

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

There is however little doubt that the current Labour leadership have failed to handle the issue or protect Jewish members or MPs.

TBH I doubt the Tories - or many other groups of people have '"handled" it much better. Just that it is a convenient diversionary stick for the right and their press to beat Labour with. They win because you and many others duly propagate it as the focus of argument, reducing attention for the looming issues we face.

Thus the divide and rule tactic used by the Tories since the year dot, rolls on...

 

[stephen bennett]

There is however little doubt that the current Labour leadership have failed to handle the issue or protect Jewish members or MPs. I suspect Corbyn must take the blame for this as he apprars to allow an ideological hatred of Israel to cloud his judgement. Exactly the same paralysis and inaction we see over Brexit.

That's not the same as 'institutionally racists'. That's a smear on everyone. You can argue about the leadership, but that's not what the GOS are saying.

Anyhow, the GOS already have a potential racist amongst them, who was defended by leaver number 8 this morning.

Stephen

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

Absolutely right.
The press can spread as much hatred and lies as they like, but you can't argue with some of the 8 who have left.
They have spent their lives in the Labour Party; if they haven't seen what's going on then no-one has.

Yes, they have seen what really goes on. However that might not be what they report to you or me. Note that:

A) They don't all give the same 'reasons' for leaving the LP

B) Many LP MPs have tried more than once from the start of JC's leadership to get rid of him, starting well before some of the 'reasons' trotted (sic) out now.

C) Many were worried that they simply weren't going to be re-selected come the next GE. They've openly complained about it in the past.

Join the dots...

 

[Nigel]

Little more than two years ago, having just participated in a select committee on the issue, Umunna stated just that: he had never encountered any antisemitism in the party. Never, ever seen any evidence of it.

Does this offer proof how much it has increased under Corbyn's leadership?

 

[stephen bennett]

TBH I doubt the Tories - or many other groups of people have '"handled" it much better. Just that it is a convenient diversionary stick for the right and their press to beat Labour with. They win because you and many others duly propagate it as the focus of argument, reducing attention for the looming issues we face.

Thus the divide and rule tactic used by the Tories since the year dot, rolls on...

The Conservatives have handled their much more serious issue with Islam by ... doing nothing.

Their supporting press/members don't criticise them for it as they mostly agree.

Stephen