Would you vote for the Soubry/Umunna party?

[Jim Audiomisc]

The problem with this argument is that it presumes that all MPs vote, all of the time, and always vote along party lines.

In truth, they don’t, and members often abstain or even vote against Government motions sometimes. God knows, Corbyn of all MPs understands that back benchers don’t always support the party line. So why has there been little or no evidence of work to peel Tory remainers away and, even if not getting their support, getting them to abstain?

There has been - more than once. And the result has been examples when some of the Tories/DUP vote with the opposition (or abstain) to defeat the Government on details *but then go solidly behind that government* as soon as another motion is placed to propose an alternative 'deal' or a vote no confidence in the Government.

Rule 1 for the Tory party is that: what matters is that power must remain with the Tories at all costs - even at the cost of the UK! For them the purpose of power is keep power. Ironically, read '1984' for an explanation!

Only the ERG are potentially barking enough to act otherwise - having shifted their wealth abroad. The Tories are *much* more opposed to the slightest risk of losing power than they are to Brexit arguments. That's why May would rather damage the UK than the Tory party. Their tactic 1 is always 'divide and rule' of *opponents*, not themselves.

A few decades ago many Tories had been though WW2 and had a different view based on their experiences. But they've pretty much all gone now.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

There is no public clamour up here at present for Indyref2 as we prepare to leave the EU. An independent Scotland would have to wait its turn in the queue to join which could take 10+ years. Then there are the slight problems of the public deficit and providing a new stable currency - both requirements of entry - to overcome. These could take 10 years at least, meaning we would not be joining the EU for 20+ years (half lifetime up here ). The main reason why the SNP lost the last Indyref is down to its lack of credible economic policy as an independent country.

Sturgeon will announce in the next week or so what her thoughts are so nothing is clear at present. In the past, she has been very cautious about going for another ref that might say No as the whole issue would become dead in the water. The other slight problem is that neither a Tory and Labour govt would give permission to hold it in the first place.

I'd agree there is no 'clamour' (or any other kind of big sword waving :-> ) as yet up here. But there will be, I think, once any Brexit strikes home. The main problem wrt currency last time was the Scots havering over 'keep the pound'. That won't be an option after all this because we'll be told to adopt the Euro, full stop. And if the pound tanks, why not? And on a *political* level I suspect after Brexit the EU would be very pleased to use letting Scotland join as a 'two fingers' to the ex-UK.

TBH if the Tories/LP refuse to allow it, that will simply enhance its popularity as Brexit consequences strike *unless* the UK puts a *lot* of effort into protecting Scotland, which I rather doubt they'd do in the circumstances. But ye never know...

 

[gassor]

The EU would be very sympathetic to Scotland and would have to agree terms in principle before Indyref2 so that people know what they are voting for. Scotland would have to adopt the Euro. It could be a lot less than 20 years.

It has taken Croatia 8 years and there are now seven countries, as well as Kosovo, are waiting in the wings to join.

Adopting the Euro and showing the fiscal acuity to manage it within the EU requirements will take quite a few years esp with the state of public finances. "The SNP’s long-awaited Sustainable Growth Commission report was published yesterday and said that an independent Scotland should aim to keep the pound for a transition period of around 10 years".

Oil prices are predicted to remain flat for many years to come and there would be all the problems of a frictionless border to sort out (something that the UK and Ireland have found problematic). Have a look at the Growth Commission report produced by the SNP if you think it will be easy or straightforward and done and dusted in a few years.

 

[gassor]

I'd agree there is no 'clamour' (or any other kind of big sword waving :-> ) as yet up here. But there will be, I think, once any Brexit strikes home. The main problem wrt currency last time was the Scots havering over 'keep the pound'. That won't be an option after all this because we'll be told to adopt the Euro, full stop. And if the pound tanks, why not? And on a *political* level I suspect after Brexit the EU would be very pleased to use letting Scotland join as a 'two fingers' to the ex-UK.

TBH if the Tories/LP refuse to allow it, that will simply enhance its popularity as Brexit consequences strike *unless* the UK puts a *lot* of effort into protecting Scotland, which I rather doubt they'd do in the circumstances. But ye never know...

All the problems of Brexit will be magnified in an independent Scotland. And we trade more with England than the UK does with the EU. Once you have one leg amputated you would not rush into having the other cut off. You should also have a look at the Growth Commission report produced by the SNP if you think it will be done and dusted in a few years.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

All the problems of Brexit will be magnified in an independent Scotland. And we trade more with England than the UK does with the EU. Once you have one leg amputated you would not rush into having the other cut off. You should also have a look at the Growth Commission report produced by the SNP if you think it will be done and dusted in a few years.

For clarity: I'm not actually an enthusiast for Scots independence! But I suspect Brexit will lead to it. None of this is the world I'd have chosen.

 

[Still]

Excellent Steve Bell cartoon possibly commissioned by @HarryB

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ven-mps-who-have-resigned-from-labour-cartoon

 

[ks.234]

Angela Smith appears to describe people with 'funny tinge' in racism debate – video

 

[Nigel]

Leave.EU openly stating on their website that they are targeting Conservative MPs obstructing the people’s will for deselection.

 

[notaclue]

Not long till we find out if true. Would presumably be Soubry, Wollaston and Allen.

"Paul Brand‏Verified account @PaulBrandITV
Speculation tonight that two or three Conservative MPs could be ready to resign as early as tomorrow.
9:27 PM - 19 Feb 2019"

Hard to predict where this could go. The early opinion polls (Survation and Sky) suggest it could go down well with voters. And the worse Brexit goes, the more support this group is likely to get.

 

[Tony L]

Hard to predict where this could go. The early opinion polls (Survation and Sky) suggest it could go down well with voters. And the worse Brexit goes, the more support this group is likely to get.

For anything meaningful to happen in the centre ground the Lib Dems need to be involved or simply go. Two parties simply don’t stand any chance. A coordinated progressive coalition or similar could work though. It will be interesting to see what if anything emerges. My suspicion is nothing will, and that this, and anything similar within the Tories is just a (justifiable IMO) protest stance against the two failed parties rather than a real new direction.

 

[gassor]

An eighth MP has left the Labour party tonight citing its inability to deal with anti-semitism in the party.

Earlier in the day "A Labour MP apologised for claiming a group of ex-colleagues who quit the party in protest over anti-Semitism may be backed by the Israeli government.

Ruth George, the MP for High Peak, suggested it was "possible" the seven MPs who jumped ship on Monday were being supported by the state of Israel." What is wrong with these people, is it so endemic in their political outlook that they don't realise the damage they are doing to Labour?

 

[Tony L]

Joan Ryan MP is out.

 

[Philim]

What is wrong with these people, is it so endemic in their political outlook

Yes.

She is not without her controversies on twitter. I would rather she and her colleagues were honest about their anti semitic/anti capitalist views rather than this continual pretence.

 

[droodzilla]

Pre-planned I expect. I believe they said they intend to maximise the impact (read: maximise damage to the party that got them elected, while kicking thousands of unpaid, hard-working activists in the teeth) with a series of staged announcements. Umunna knows how to milk the media machine, I'll give him that.

 

[Seanm]

Losing a lot of talent here.

 

[Tony L]

Never mind, you’ve got Derek Hatton back!

 

[Nigel]

Is there a lot of talent to lose?

 

[Seanm]

Room for a little more now.

 

[gassor]

The political party system in this country has seized up. It is no longer fit for purpose. We are moving towards economic suicide and both parties are standing by more engrossed in their own internal divisions than thinking of a way to halt the impending damage. It's probably too late for a new party to do anything about this, but the lesson for the future has to be learned. Both Tory and Labour are a shambles.

 

[Robert]

Number eight.

Come on, stand up - out!

More of these cowards will go over the next week or so, all choreographed just like the pathetic shadow cabinet resignations we saw after the election of Corbyn.

If this is still happening after the brexit vote, May will call an election and win - and she'll win thanks to these bast**rds. It's the 80s SDP all over again. And again the right will blame 'left wing extremism' for the Tory win when in fact it's the Labour right split killing the vote.
Truth is, this shower would prefer a Tory government.

If anyone thinks this isn't a highly coordinated attack by vested interests petrified by the prospect of a left government they must be pretty dim.

On the plus side, this could well be the time to thoroughly cleanse the Party of these liberals since the membership are having none of the appeasement currently on display by the leadership.