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Vast Brexit thread merge part IV

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Tony L said:
What is your take on the numbers, will Johnson’s deal get through?

I honestly don’t know. I’d sincerely hope no one in the SNP will vote for it, the Lib Dems will only vote for it if a 2nd referendum was attached with remain as the only other option (i.e. they’d just use it as a tool to get a 2nd ref), which leaves Labour as the main variable...
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Seems unlikely...

Screenshot-2019-10-17-Nicola-Sturgeon-Nicola-Sturgeon-on-Twitt.png
 
bor said:
All the evidence seems to point to a win for Leave in a second Ref and I think, Leave with the May-with-Glitter Turd Deal would win with even higher approval.

I think the only solution for Labour is to support Deal with confirmatory Ref, but assume that Leave will win again. But this will place ownership of Brexit back on the Conservatives, and not Labour.
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I think demographic change is working against this - or at least could do so if the young uns get to the polling station.
 
Colin Barron said:
What you are describing is the EEC, it is came and went. What we have now is a Federal Europe with ever increasing centralised control.
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Which might've been the thing that tipped the balance of me voting Remain. We the people are better protected by a centre right EU than we ever would be by a hard/far right Tory government. As we are now seeing play out today, if we Leave the EU, Scotland will leave the UK, followed by Ireland and potentially Wales soon after. What will then happen is the new countries will compete with (little) England, and effectively we get more of the causes of what brought us to this position in the first place.

There is no better deal than the one we have now, everyone apart from those who put the the Tory party above the country and John Mann who's vote has been bought for a seat in the Lords and £350/day for the rest of his life agree.
 
maxflinn said:
Still a few days left to bribe them.
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Apparently Johnson’s Vizier to the Provence, Julian Smith offered the DUP a motorway between Belfast and Derry but Foster’s mouth turned down even more and said that’s no use because Derry is Sin Fein territory. This is the level of politics they’re dealing in.
This looks promising-

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...xit-deal-politics-live?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

A view in Northern Ireland is that the DUP have been totally shafted, or “run over by a convoy of juggernauts”, and for once lost out in their hallmark brinkmanship.

This could rise to further tensions in the region, making it vital that there is “no crowing in Dublin”, one source said.
 
Not good:

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal
 
Konteebos said:
Not good:

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal
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So the EU will not accept democratic scrutiny of the deal - sums that shower up completely!

It has to be VoNC on Saturday and a Corbyn interim government - still waiting for the penny to drop with Swinson though. The Benn Act should have ruled out out No Deal under any circumstances...
 
Konteebos said:
Not good:

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal
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Hmnn, not quite as clear as that - BBC putting out misleading Juncker statement. He did not say EU would rule out an extension, he just said, “why would you need an extension if you have a deal?” Not the same thing.
 
gavreid said:
I'm also unconvinced that the EU would agree an extension now if the deal fails to pass, which makes the Benn Act redundant. It's this quote from Barnier

"Barnier says, when Boris Johnson spoke to Jean-Claude Juncker this morning, he presumes Johnson had faith in his ability to get a majority. He has said he has confidence in his ability to win the vote."

There's nothing else on offer...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08c78d1cb4e0c6#block-5da841a98f08c78d1cb4e0c6
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Juncker has said the EU will not grant a further extension. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live

This means the opposition have to band together and do a VONC, form an interim government and have a second referendum, or alternately revoke Article 50. I doubt Corbyn the Brexiteer will go for the latter though.

"EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said the EU will not grant another Brexit extension.

"This is hugely significant, because, if the rest of the EU27 agree - and it is not clear yet whether he is speaking on their behalf - it means MPs will effectively be faced with a choice between this deal and no deal."

Jack
 
jackbarron said:
"This is hugely significant, because, if the rest of the EU27 agree - and it is not clear yet whether he is speaking on their behalf - it means MPs will effectively be faced with a choice between this deal and no deal."
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I think an election or a Labour Government would prompt a rethink though.
 
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