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US Election, November 2024

New Biden campaign fundraising email: "Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee, period... If he were to drop out, it would lead to weeks of chaos, internal food fighting, and a bunch of candidates who limp into a brutal floor fight at the convention."

Also from Twitter.
 
Kirk said:
NBC reports that Biden was "humiliated" by his debate performance, and is discussing his future with his family tomorrow. They also say Clyburn, Jeffries, and Pelosi have all "privately expressed concerns about his viability," but that Jill Biden is the one he'll most listen to.

From Twitter.
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The person he should listen to is professor Alan Lichtman. He probably wins if Kennedy's third-party run gets less than 10%. If the Dems replace Biden, they are almost sure to lose. https://www.channel4.com/news/if-bi...ance-of-winning-says-historian-allan-lichtman
 
DonQuixote99 said:
The person he should listen to is professor Alan Lichtman. He probably wins if Kennedy's third-party run gets less than 10%. If the Dems replace Biden, they are almost sure to lose. https://www.channel4.com/news/if-bi...ance-of-winning-says-historian-allan-lichtman
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I don't agree with Lichtman. He is basing his reasoning on past events in contexts that have nothing in common with today's unprecedented situation.

Today the polls give Biden and Trump about even. Those who would vote for Biden would presumably do so because they consider him a better option than the slightly crazy overgrown lout Trump. There are also many who will vote Democrat on principle.

If, instead of Biden, the Democratic candidate were one of the three "possibles," all people with a good public image, solid background, political experience and a generally positive record, why would they not choose one of them, rather than Trump?

In other words, I don't think a potential Biden-voter would switch to Trump because instead of Biden the candidate is Harris or one of the other two.
 
Lichtman's model is a model. Any model can be broken. But the data says that over history, voters are turned-off by a 'new' face emerging out of a chaotic struggle.
 
I think one thing for certain is that if it's not Biden then it's going to be Kamal Harris. This idea of the DNC (the DNC!) getting from Biden to anyone other than Harris without it being an absolute car crash seems somewhere between fanciful and bonkers to me.
 
PaulMB said:
I don't agree with Lichtman. He is basing his reasoning on past events in contexts that have nothing in common with today's unprecedented situation.

Today the polls give Biden and Trump about even. Those who would vote for Biden would presumably do so because they consider him a better option than the slightly crazy overgrown lout Trump. There are also many who will vote Democrat on principle.

If, instead of Biden, the Democratic candidate were one of the three "possibles," all people with a good public image, solid background, political experience and a generally positive record, why would they not choose one of them, rather than Trump?

In other words, I don't think a potential Biden-voter would switch to Trump because instead of Biden the candidate is Harris or one of the other two.
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The election will be decided not by 'Biden voters", but by unaffiliated/undecided/swing-voters.
 
DonQuixote99 said:
The person he should listen to is professor Alan Lichtman. He probably wins if Kennedy's third-party run gets less than 10%. If the Dems replace Biden, they are almost sure to lose. https://www.channel4.com/news/if-bi...ance-of-winning-says-historian-allan-lichtman
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Yeah, there's a lot of hysteria over this and Biden is being held to a far higher standard than Trump for some reason - maybe a fear reaction to Trump. And then you have all the arguments about the alternatives. My main issue with Biden centres on his campaign team and their rather passive, lacklustre campaign to date.
 
Kirk said:
Yeah, there's a lot of hysteria over this and Biden is being held to a far higher standard than Trump for some reason - maybe a fear reaction to Trump.
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In my opinion, to a different standard - Biden is a serious politician, Trump is an entertainer. Bread and circuses...
 
Today the US Supreme Court will reveal their decision on Presidential immunity. We know how Thomas and Alito will go, and Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson, so it's a question of Roberts and the three Trump appointees Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett.
 
matthewr said:
Immune for official acts, not-immune for unofficial acts. Sent back to Chutkin to determine which are which in this case which is more delay.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807783490743910708
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In a way it's understandable, otherwise Polk would be in the dock for stealing half of Mexico's territory in the 1840s, McKinley for his acquisition of the Philippines, Truman for the overthrow of Mossadeq in Iran, Kennedy for the Bay of Pigs, Reagan for the invasion of Grenada, Bush Jr for the invasion of Iraq, etc. etc. etc. When it comes to perceived national interest, all morality goes out the window. As Tom Lehrer put it:

For might makes right, and 'till they've seen the light
They've got to be protected, al their rights respected,
Until someone we like can be elected!
 
The court ruled 6-3 that Trump has “absolute immunity” for acts that fall under his “core constitutional powers,” such as appointing officials....

...or trying to overturn a legitimate election.....
 
Bob McC said:
So can Biden send the seals in to Mar a Lago with D O A order.?
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That's Sotomayer's view.

"The President is now a king above the law.”

“Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.”
 
Yes. It seems basically that the President of the United States is now a King.


If he gets elected in November he will be able to do all the terrible things his stunted, malicious ego-raddled brain wants to do.

Who knows what the heck happens next.
 
Devastating verdict. The only possible upside is that there is now no room for doubt, the people of the US now have their democracy on the ballot. They are the only people who can stop Trump from being crowned Emperor if they care enough.
 
The CHAOS gathers strength in preparation for November.

It feels like the darkness is going to take us all...

....unless Biden can use those same powers to really play dirty and give Trump a taste of his own medicine.
 
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