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Ukraine

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Putin isn't the grand old duke of York, he has to do something to save face. Hope it's on the smallest scale possible. I doubt he ever wanted to annex the country, just put a Kremlin-friendly authoritarian leader in there.

Meanwhile, threatening sanctions is a joke, Europe have an energy crisis while Russia has masses of natural resources, foreign currency reserves...and China as a trading partner.
 
He had a Kremlin friendly leader in there but he got turfed out. He would need a dictator like Belarus for that to be a reasonable scenario and that option is no longer likely. Unless China starts actually bankrolling him he needs the oil revenue from Europe. He’s got a lot of attention for doing little more than he usually does. I also think the so-called frictions between NATO members is overstated. What looks like divergent strategies could also be seen as a multi-pronged approach.
 
Apparently the 6th(?) great extinction is already underway, this might speed things up! Bring it on.
 
Bob McC said:
Now what would be your position on Cuba inviting the Russians in to base Ballistic missiles on its soil?
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I don't think Ukraine is inviting anyone to place ballistic missiles on its territory.

In fact, in the early 90s Ukraine negotiated and transferred large number of nuclear weapons to Russia, in exchange for Russia promising to respect Ukraine's sovereignty.

That last part didn't work out so well...
 
DimitryZ said:
I don't think Ukraine is inviting anyone to place ballistic missiles on its territory.

In fact, in the early 90s Ukraine negotiated and transferred large number of nuclear weapons to Russia, in exchange for Russia promising to respect Ukraine's sovereignty.

That last part didn't work out so well...
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Trouble is now the outcome is in the hands of policy wonks, outright bastards and people who haven’t got a clue about anything, what could possibly go wrong?
 
wow&flutter said:
The Tories could go after any Russian funds in UK banks of course, that would upset the Oligarchs. It’s not as if the government has any links to Russian cash, oh wait a minute!:(
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We interned ‘enemy aliens’ in WW2; could we do the same with the Russian expats in London? They are, it seems to me, at least as much of a threat to the UK as expat Germans were in 1939.
 
It seems to be the US pushing the agenda. While the Ukraine calls for calm, and some European countries showing unease the US keep upping the anti.
It isn`t Russia that has broke the no expansion of NATO agreement.
 
DimitryZ said:
If there is a military lesson in the last 70 years, it's "never give up your nuclear weapons."
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Indeed, the N Korean leadership have (further) ruined the country to make theirs; it's the most effective "now treat us with respect" tool a country can have.
 
wezzywest said:
It isn`t Russia that has broke the no expansion of NATO agreement.
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First off, the issue of ex-Soviet Union countries joining NATO (including Ukraine) joining was not part of agreement in the Budapest Memorandum.

It suits the Russian narrative that expansion of NATO is an act of aggression. It ignores the fact that it is a choice of independent countries to request membership and it is an annoyance to Moscow that many ex-Soviet states choose to join NATO and the EU rather than 'Mother Russia' - it would seem that the memory of the USSR is strong in many politicians and has an effects on their diplomatic decisions. Belarus had a similar trilateral agreement but, probably because it has allied itself to Russiam has never had one of its presidents subject to an assassination attempt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yushchenko#TCDD_poisoning) or had part of its country annexed.

Item 2 of the memorandum (https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances) states:

"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations."
  • Russia has already broken this agreement in 2014 when it annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
  • Russia signed up to allowing Ukraine "political independence" which, by definition, means the choice to seek to join another political or military alliance.
  • Putin is worried about being next to a NATO member state, and yet at the moment, Ukraine is a buffer between Russia and such states and unlikely to be a NATO member for a long time. Invading / annexing Ukraine guarantees being a neighbour to a NTO-member state, precisely the sort of thing Putin claims to be avoiding.
It is also worth noting that Ukraine has a large defence and aerospace industry base which would be very useful for Russia (who's own industry is in a bit of a parlous state - https://breakingdefense.com/2022/01...try-might-not-survive-an-invasion-of-ukraine/).
 
Bob McC said:
If Ukraine was in NATO that is exactly what would happen.
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Kind of….under NATOs stance of “flexible response”, we would first try to stop an incursion into a member country by Russia with conventional weapons. This phase could easily take a couple of weeks to resolve one way or the other with NATO likely to be the winner but if we are on the losing end, NATO has the right to employ battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons before finally going all in with the strategic icbms.

With other despotic nations such as N.Korea looking at how this unfolds, the stakes are very high indeed for the credibility of the western alliance.
 
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