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Ukraine

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Putin has to stay in power; as soon as he loses that one of his quiescent enemies will return a favour.

No peaceful being put out to stud for the corrupt despot.

If it takes a million deaths he won't worry.
 
WTF.. all the press here seem to be saying maybe war next few days...
Governments need a war to deflect from the financials..
Gold and oil price jumping up...
Friday night and after a bottle of wine I'm sitting here thinking (and hoping) nooooo.....this is all press BS.
 
Let’s hope all the running to Moscow by the bit players massages Putin’s ego enough to claim a victory and he can go back to overseeing the slow decline of Russia. He couldn’t have picked a better time to go mischievous but I don’t think the east Europeans have that fatalistic mindset anymore. He’s in for quite a surprise once his tanks stop rolling if they ever start.
 
I read the few remaining Russian news sites.

What has scared me is that Putin has surrounded himself with military advisors who share with him deep desire to pay the West back for the fall of the USSR. And these advisors for the last decade or more have developed a military strategy that includes demonstrative use of nuclear weapons to de-escalate a conventional conflict. They are convinced that if they destroy a medium size European city, the West will back off and not respond with nuclear weapons.

And that has me very seriously concerned.
 
Seeker_UK said:
This provides a view on Russian nuclear doctrine which might allay some fears.
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf
Click to expand...
These two sections are concerning:

These revisions have led to questions about whether Russia would employ nuclear weapons
preemptively in a regional war or only in response to the use of nuclear weapons in a broader
conflict. In mid-2009, Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Russia’s Security Council, hinted that
Russia would have the option to launch a “preemptive nuclear strike” against an aggressor “using
conventional weapons in an all-out, regional, or even local war.”


As with previous official statements, this document does not call for the preemptive use of
nuclear weapons during conventional conflicts. But it does not completely resolve the question of
whether Russia would escalate to nuclear use if it were losing a conventional war. It notes that,
“in the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of
military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation
and/or its allies.” Analysts have assessed that this means Russia might threaten to escalate to
nuclear use as a way to deter a conflict that would threaten the existence of the state.


Patrushev is the one closest to Putin.
 
raf%20Typhoons%20escort%20B-52%20US%20Air%20Force%20bombers%20from%20the%20Bomber%20Task%20Force%20four%20aircraft%20100222%20CREDIT%20RAF.jfif_.jpg

RAF fighters welcome US B-52 bombers back to Europe as Russia tensions build

The American Bomber Task Force was joined by Typhoons ahead of joint training missions.
11th February 2022 at 1:08pm

https://www.forces.net/news/raf-fighters-welcome-us-b-52-bombers-back-europe-russia-tensions-build

Air Strip One...

Hmmm, a show of hands. :rolleyes:
 
This notion that as a "superpwer" Russia is entitled to a sphere of influence is nonsense.

When the USSR fell, the former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact nations practically stampeded into the arms of NATO.
 
Bob McC said:
How is that different from NATO doctrine?
Click to expand...
I am not sure NATO has such - but individual nuclear-armed nations in it probably do.

What is concerning me mostly is that Putin's advisors have convinced him that a tactical nuclear exchange can be a viable and "winnable" option in a conventional conflict.

If one side is no longer constrained by mutually assured destruction, that's a real problem.
 
Nato is a defensive organisation which has no ambitions to encroach into legitimate Russian territory.

Ukraine is a democracy which is entitled to make its own choices as to whose 'sphere of influence' it wishes to align with.

Putin is many things.. but he is not a fool. He is 'trying it on', as much for home consumption as anything.

All he needs to do is accept that ..as the leader of a Gangster Regime which needs to murder and imprison its opposition at home and abroad.. and rig elections in order to stay in power..he is unlikely to intimidate Ukraine into accepting his 'influence'.

So. What next?

Nato and the West in general needs to stop pussyfooting about and tell him in no uncertain terms to stop being a prick..accept that NATO will be his neighbour, and learn to live with it.

The unknown is Belarus... a 'puppet' Russian state.

Russia is unlikely to invade Ukraine. Belarus might..with Putin's backing.
 
Now what would be your position on Cuba inviting the Russians in to base Ballistic missiles on its soil?
 
Clearly Liz Truss was ineffective at diplomacy. I believe Johnson should send Michael Fabricant to parle. A side benefit is that we may never see him again
 
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