Ukraine V

[TheDecameron]

This opinion piece from Newsweek reads like some russian propaganda

https://apple.news/AEOhYiz3dSeK9yg0OCccvpQ

The authors make a lot of predictions that seem at odds with what most other people


I agree with you, you are correct.

However, if ukrainian drones are accurate enough to strike an airfield, are they accurate enough to target the Kremlin buildings? Its a very tempting thought even though it would be the wrong thing to do.

The opinion piece in Newsweek seems to laud the prowess of Russia’s armed forces:

“Russia has now put its economy on a war footing, called up the reserves, and assembled hundreds of thousands of troops, including both conscripts and volunteers. This army is equipped with Russia's most sophisticated weapons, and contrary to much Western reporting, is far from demoralized”.

Yet in reality, “the world’s second most powerful military” failed to capture Kyiv and bring down its democratically elected government and instead has suffered casualties in the high tens of thousands, leaving Ukraine littered with thousands of burned out tanks and other assets. The draft has backfired with news reaching families in Russia that many of their sons met their deaths within days of being press ganged. File under contrarian.

 

[gustav_errata]

Wow that Newsweek article is a joke. The attempted parallels with the US Civil War are so absurdly bad, one might think that they're click-bait only. Or comparing Ukrainian efforts to reduce the (official, I guess?) use of the Russian language to Canada trying to stamp out Québécois (of course the more accurate comparison would be a recently independent Québec removing any official use of English). Of course on this latter point, I'm happy to be educated if I here betray ignorance.

 

[droodzilla]

Wow that Newsweek article is a joke. The attempted parallels with the US Civil War are so absurdly bad, one might think that they're click-bait only. Or comparing Ukrainian efforts to reduce the (official, I guess?) use of the Russian language to Canada trying to stamp out Québécois (of course the more accurate comparison would be a recently independent Québec removing any official use of English). Of course on this latter point, I'm happy to be educated if I here betray ignorance.

And that would be a good thing because...?

 

[droodzilla]

This opinion piece from Newsweek reads like some russian propaganda

https://apple.news/AEOhYiz3dSeK9yg0OCccvpQ

The authors make a lot of predictions that seem at odds with what most other people

I think you mean it goes against the grain of most reporting in the UK which, let's face it, is almost undiluted Ukrainian propaganda.

I suspect reality lies somewhere between these extremes. In any case, I see no prospect of a rapid end to this conflict.

 

[PsB]

And that would be a good thing because...?

I'm sure you understand the difference between a province that is part of a federation and an independent country (that should be free to pass laws a majority of its citizens supports).

 

[gustav_errata]

And that would be a good thing because...?

I'm not aware of having communicated a value judgement.

 

[droodzilla]

I'm sure you understand the difference between a province that is part of a federation and an independent country (that should be free to pass laws a majority of its citizens supports).

Sure. I'm also wary of "the tryranny of the majority". Most countries have checks and balances to ensure that minorities are not discriminated against, no matter what the majority view might be.

 

[PsB]

Sure. I'm also wary of "the tryranny of the majority". Most countries have checks and balances to ensure that minorities are not discriminated against, no matter what the majority view might be.

In fairness, most countries are not under assault from a large neighbour that wants to obliterate their language, their culture, their independence and is now making its best efforts to bomb them back to the stone age (to recycle somebody's expression). The large neighbour's imperialism over the last decade or two might be seen by reasonable observers as having a negative influence on the smaller country's language policy, especially when it comes to the acceptability of the large neighbour's preferred language.

Should the Kremlin elect to continue in its mad war of choice, it will encourage a similar backlash against Russian culture in general, starting in Ukraine. This would be a shame for many reasons.

 

[DimitryZ]

Looking at the maps, Moscow appears to be closer to Kyiv than is the Engels-2 airbase.

The old Soviet era TU-141 surveillance drones from 1970-80s (fitted with a warhead instead of bulky old film camera equipment) have a range of 1000km and by my quick look should be able to carry 500kg high frag warhead just fine.

1000km/hr speed isn't too shabby, either.

 

[DimitryZ]

will you attack moscow? are you tempted?

They should bomb military airports around Moscow and hit the MoD building in the city.

The sooner the better.

 

[DimitryZ]

The moral objection at least to me is that Moscow as a city is a civilian target and attacking it is a war crime. Meanwhile attacking a military base is not. So the question would be what in Moscow is being attacked; a military base would be ok, the Kreml would not be.

AFAIK is not even considered an offensive operation by the UN if it is a base from where the enemy attacks you from. Striking back at that base to stop the attacks is a defensive operation. This would include Engels-2 but nothing in Moscow.

Incorrect.

Moscow has plenty of military infrastructure around it and all the government buildings (Kremlin, MoD, National Guard headquarters (Putin's preatorian guard), FSB (old KGB building), GRU, are all completely legitimate military targets.

Once the Russian oligarchy and political elites have to run to bomb shelters, instead of sniffing cocaine in their mansions, this war will end very quickly.

 

[Euan]

Incorrect.

Moscow has plenty of military infrastructure around it and all the government buildings (Kremlin, MoD, National Guard headquarters (Putin's preatorian guard), FSB (old KGB building), GRU, are all completely legitimate military targets.

Once the Russian oligarchy and political elites have to run to bomb shelters, instead of sniffing cocaine in their mansions, this war will end very quickly.

I don't disagree but what do you think would happen when the first Russian civilians are killed by an errant missile?

 

[DimitryZ]

I don't disagree but what do you think would happen when the first Russian civilians are killed by an errant missile?

They will be buried.

Their families may ask why their countrymen were sent to another country to kill Ukrainian civilians.

They may ask why "World's Second Army(tm)" wasn't able to stop a 50 year old drone.

They may question the authority of their leader who started this war and is directly responsible for the deaths of their loved ones.

I am advocating a sort of reverse @anubisgrau here - he wants the West to be bombed, because he hates it and I want Russia's military infrastructure to be bombed because their country started this war.

 

[Hook]

There was no way for this war to be contained exclusively within Ukraine. As stated above, destroying Russia-based infrastructure being used to launch attacks is defensive and justified, and I expect to see it continue.

After all of the Russian attacks on civilians, after all of the war crimes, after all the murder, rape and torture, I think Ukraine has shown remarkable restraint in response. Whether that was by choice, or by lack of weaponry, I don’t know. Perhaps some of both.

 

[venton]

If Ukraine attacks Russian soil, wouldn't Russia escalate this from a special military operation to war. Therefore calling up millions to fight rather than a couple of hundred thousand.

 

[droodzilla]

In fairness, most countries are not under assault from a large neighbour that wants to obliterate their language, their culture, their independence and is now making its best efforts to bomb them back to the stone age (to recycle somebody's expression). The large neighbour's imperialism over the last decade or two might be seen by reasonable observers as having a negative influence on the smaller country's language policy, especially when it comes to the acceptability of the large neighbour's preferred language.

Should the Kremlin elect to continue in its mad war of choice, it will encourage a similar backlash against Russian culture in general, starting in Ukraine. This would be a shame for many reasons.

Well yes, it is understandable. Still...

 

[NeilR]

I think you mean it goes against the grain of most reporting in the UK which, let's face it, is almost undiluted Ukrainian propaganda.

I suspect reality lies somewhere between these extremes. In any case, I see no prospect of a rapid end to this conflict.

that was actually unfinished post that i forgot to delete prior to replying to someone else!

I don’t really pay much attention to the uk media on the war, but i am following quite a few sober military analysts and also stuff from places like the institute for the study of war and the newsweek article is not at all reflecting what many of these people are saying. I think the newsweek article is the outlier here.

 

[DimitryZ]

If Ukraine attacks Russian soil, wouldn't Russia escalate this from a special military operation to war. Therefore calling up millions to fight rather than a couple of hundred thousand.

They didn't do that when Ukraine took Kherson, also now a part of Russia (according to Russia).

However, I hear in the anti-Putin Russian language YouTube that he is planning to announce a ~2 million upper limit "new partial mobilization" in second half of January to essentially drown the Ukrainians in Russian corpses, like Stalin did to the Nazis. Today, the meaningless campaign to take Bakhmut is already being conducted with new waves of mobilized, untrained infantry attacking deeply reinforced Ukrainian positions several times a day over the corpses of the previous attacks. Putin thinks that if he had ten times more bodies, some may actually make it to the Ukrainian positions by climbing over the pile of corpses of their buddies.

I think the increased lethality of modern warfare makes these kind of human wave attacks pretty useless. And maybe eventually even the Russians will start being actually upset at being killed in large numbers (but don't hold your breath).

 

[Spraggons Den]

under assault from a large neighbour that wants to obliterate their language, their culture, their independence

and steal their white goods - washing machine, tumble dryer etc

 

[NeilR]

They didn't do that when Ukraine took Kherson, also now a part of Russia (according to Russia).

However, I hear in the anti-Putin Russian language YouTube that he is planning to announce a ~2 million upper limit "new partial mobilization" in second half of January to essentially drown the Ukrainians in Russian corpses, like Stalin did to the Nazis. Today, the meaningless campaign to take Bakhmut is already being conducted with new waves of mobilized, untrained infantry attacking deeply reinforced Ukrainian positions several times a day over the corpses of the previous attacks. Putin thinks that if he had ten times more bodies, some may actually make it to the Ukrainian positions by climbing over the pile of corpses of their buddies.

I think the increased lethality of modern warfare makes these kind of human wave attacks pretty useless. And maybe eventually even the Russians will start being actually upset at being killed in large numbers (but don't hold your breath).

the Ukrainians may well run out of ammunition.