Ukraine V

A really good explainer how Russian propaganda works and why. Auto translate CC are pretty good.

The version presented yesterday by @dmitre@gmail.co is the so called "compromise version" which is usually introduced a day or two after the event. Immediately afterwards, the information space is flooded with multiple mutually exclusive "versions" in order to create information chaos and seed doubt that the truth will ever be found.

We have seen this play out many times now following each of Russia's atrocities. While we all think we are resistant to propaganda, I would note that I posted yesterday that we would have to wait until Putin is out of power to find the truth...

The most likely scenario is Russians used Google to find that the nearby factory repaired 3 APCs 8 years ago, which made it a "target." They didn't do any other checking - Russian military intelligence is very poor. They are running out of more modern Air-Ground missiles and have to use an old X-22 naval version with a 600m miss radius (really big warhead though). One of the missiles hits the mall.

 

There will, the memorandum is available online here and quoted below (emphasis mine).

But I have to admit I don't know any details about the European Convention on Extradition, just that this is what Finland and Sweden have been following so far already.

 

Be interesting to see what the Kurdish (Swedish?) MP has to say. Things may not change for the Kurds and Turkey may have managed to get some of the military restrictions the US/Sweden/Finland have imposed on them eased. Given the public sensitivities on both sides I doubt we will get a full picture

 

Maybe an F-35 do-over?

 

^^^^^^ There is quite a queue forming apparently. American plane I believe

 

When the Ottoman Empire collapsed the British and French forgot to give 35 million Kurds a country. So they are split between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.

 

Sykes/picot ? https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/32140

 

The post was more about the invasion of Ukraine leading to NATO expansion. That said, the concessions Turkey 'won' are relatively minor and there is already debate over whether those relating to the Kurds are even enforceable.

Erdogan faces an election next year, one he could well lose. His play here was a much about getting a photo op with the leader of the free world as it was about boosting his strong-man credentials with his domestic audience.

 

A genuine shame. It is always essential to hear an opposing view.

 

Russia vacates Snake Island “as a gesture of goodwill” in order to “assist with grain exports” to needy countries.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...overnor-says-live-news?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

A degree of casual lying that would make even Boris Johnson blush.

 

I wonder who will get the dosh for Ukrainian grain.

 

They just give up, Ukraine attacked that island every day.

 

A C130 overflew us taking off from Stansted yesterday. I didn't see its flight plan, but the flight number was UAF****.

Really? I didn't know they had those.

I hear them every day now, sometimes several times, a quite distinctive sound. Sometimes they are visible on FlightRadar 24, often not. The destination is usually south-eastern Poland. One this morning was going from Brize Norton to Tallinn. I read now that we're setting up a brigade HQ there.

The UK is certainly throwing some resources at this thing.

 

They forgot to put the BBQs out before they abandoned it

​

 

I' ve been wondering if the large error ellipse caused them to fire two. i.e. take two shots for the price of one, increasing the chance of one hitting the 'military' target. So in this case maybe a disregard for cilivilan risk rather than a deliberate "two for the price of one + excuse afterwards if they can get people to think they only fired the one that hit the 'military' target".

That said, could have been t'other way about: Main target was civilian terror with the nearby 'military' target as plausible deniability.

 

I hope it's OK to post that it's understandable but a great shame. Honestly he seems like a nice guy.

 

Cruise missiles are vulnerable to AD systems like the Ukrainian SA-17 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system#System_composition) so most likely that firing two is the tactic to improve chances of getting one to the target.

That said, using something of that size and lack of accuracy against land targets in an urban environment underlines what I said in a previous post; a total disregard for civilian life.

 

Putin’s ministers and spox continue to utter threats toward Finland, Sweden, Norway and Lithuania- the last two for impeding over land transport of Russian cargo through their sovereign territory.
I cannot see this conflict remaining inside the borders of Ukraine, since Putin has been described by various people with knowledge of him, as not someone who makes threats he will not follow through on and in the past two decades he’s been sending regular smoke signals about red lines and Russian re-expansion into its former sphere of influence.

The spectacle of middle aged Russian politicians and pundits jerking off on state TV about super weapons and the rich target environment that Europe presents simply compounds the impression. I can see Putin’s Sportspalast moment coming.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...overnor-says-live-news?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said, a new “iron curtain” was descending between Russia and the west, and that Moscow would not trust Washington and Brussels “from now on”. The process “has begun”, Lavrov said after talks with his counterpart from Belarus.
  
  
• (…..ta-ra and make sure you stay behind it).

 

^^^^^ Hence the rush by Sweden, Finland and NATO to fast-track the process. They are clearly expecting Putin to escalate the conflict. Zelensky has always maintained Ukraine was but a stepping stone to a European wide conflict.

Putin issued an ultimatum last December to 'The West', demanding the USA and allies remove all military capability in Central and Eastern European countries, especially the baltic states that joined NATO post 1997, thus making his intentions clear.

Meanwhile, Johnson is all over the place. After talking up the conflict and 'his part in it' for the past 3 months, taking advantage of Putin's merciless slaughter of thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians for pantomime Churchill photo ops, he now says the UK government will increase spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade!

Except by the end of the decade the human race may be nothing but vapourware. . .

John