It’s been flagged that NATO will respond mightily but conventionally. In other words, you can either destroy the world or be absolutely humiliated. It’s not a great choice. Also, it’s not a choice Putin ( or Trump) can make on their own. It’s has other players that have their own families.
After 30. September front line will find itself inside of Russia as only one from four will be annexed teritories at the moment are in Russia control fully. So there is nothing to decide and nothing than can be changed. This is again just another formal excuse for Russia to do what they planned to do. Can anybody remember similar war situation when one day you defend your home and next day your are occupant in your own home. I do not think that Putin is that stupid, just another stupid excuse.
That article was written in 1997. You may think it was prescient, but reading it now just shows how much the world has changed in 25 years. For instance, the bits about "the chimera of a resurgent Russia bent upon imposing its hegemony in Eastern Europe" and "the improbable emergence of a Russian conventional threat at a distant date" haven't aged very well. Some chimera. Likewise, concerns about the expansion of NATO weakening the alliance, or the main security risk to the US being loose Russian nukes seem almost quaint now.
Russia doesn't fly aircraft in Ukrainian-controlled airspace - too high a risk of being shot down.
Generally, someone who says, "I am not bluffing" is indeed bluffing. Putin must know how this would go down in the countries on which he''s relying, such as India and China, who are already starting to edge away nervously. He has already trashed Russia's reputation as a reliable business partner; is he so bananas that he is going to trash the rest?
