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Ukraine V

Discussion in 'off topic' started by DimitryZ, Jun 29, 2022.

  1. CTank

    CTank pfm Member

    Big difference in defending the motherland, than invading a neighbouring country.
  2. Spraggons Den

    Spraggons Den pfm Member

    I don't think this kind of thing works in contemporary warfare. Didn't Iraq have a much larger army than the coalition in the first Gulf War and yet it was routed in a few days.
    MikeMA likes this.
  3. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    absolutely. If the Americans give the Ukrainians a few AC130s they will make mincemeat of poorly equipped soldiers on the front lines armed with WW1 rifles
    MikeMA likes this.
  4. CarrotMan

    CarrotMan pfm Member

    This is brilliant - I hope it works!

    Chefren likes this.
  5. MikeMA

    MikeMA pfm Member

    The other great advantage the Russians had in WWII were vast quantities of food and military matériel supplied by the Western Allies, without which they could very well have lost the war. They won't be getting that this time round.
    DimitryZ and stevec67 like this.
  6. stevec67

    stevec67 pfm Member

    Absolutely. Part of why Ukraine are reclaiming land now.

    Interesting question. I'm no military expert, depending upon many other factors the willingness to simply throw numbers at it has to count. How many is anyone's guess.

    Yes, you'd think so, but the Americans are really shockingly bad at winning wars by throwing vast amounts of technology at the problem. It supposes that the enemy lines up in plain sight and waits for the air strike to be called.
  7. PaulMB

    PaulMB pfm Member

    Also, the population of Russia is only 146 million. A bit more than Germany and twice France or the UK. So the massed cannon fodder system won't work, even assuming that with today's more technological warfare it could. Also, it is no longer made up of millions of factory workers and farmers harnessed to a totalitarian Soviet system for which they would obediently sacrifice themselves when confronted by a Nazi invader. And as said already, they don't have the massive supply of aircraft, jeeps, trucks and raw materials that the Allies, mainly US industry, sent them in 1941-45.
    Seems ludicrous, grotesque, that in 2022 we are seriously discussing the possibility of all-out war with Russia!
    DimitryZ, Spraggons Den and MikeMA like this.
  8. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    Putler insists he has super-weapons and he’s not bluffing. I think his Sportspalast speech is only a few months away.
  9. DimitryZ

    DimitryZ pfm Member

    It may have been. I was only referring to the current "referenda" on joining RF.

    Kremlin aligned press are reporting that "referenda have started."
  10. Tim Jones

    Tim Jones pfm Member

    That said, one of the interesting things about the lead-in to February was that the US and UK were explicitly calling out not just the potential for false flags, but quite specific instances before they came to pass.

    Not that it's any comfort, but I can't be alone in wondering what the actual serviceability of Russia's nuclear weapon systems, be they tactical or strategic, really is; not least given some of the graft-induced equipment problems their conventional forces have experienced.
    Sue Pertwee-Tyr likes this.
  11. Somafunk

    Somafunk pfm Member

    Theres been a few reports I’ve read online from credible government/military sources that explain in detail the huge amount of crew and maintenance regimes each individual missile requires to maintain functional viability as there not something you can just pull out storage and flick a switch, given the corruption amongst the various levels of the Russian army I imagine the maintenance of isolated missile silos leaves a lot to be desired.
  12. cobbers

    cobbers pfm Member

    Stories coming out of conscription stations being set on fire.
    ff1d1l likes this.
  13. Jim Audiomisc

    Jim Audiomisc pfm Member

    The snag with your first point is that the existing Russian army (or at least that part which is now still in meaningful existence in Ukraine) and the forced conscripts who clearly *don't* want to go may simply not cohere around the same determination to 'win' in Ukraine that they had when facing Nazi *invaders* of what they *did* see as Russia and threatened them *all* directly. Thus there may well be too many who agree that they *won't* shoot who the army tell them to - but *may* shoot commanders who push them into battle when they clearly lack training.

    Add in that the armaments and tactics of the Ukrainians will clearly make mince of them if the Russian ploy is simply as you describe. They've already minced the previous Army the Russians sent in, and continue to do so. Some of the reasons are as explained in a BBC prog I referenced a while ago. 'Quantity' of opponents can become a "rich target environment" for those who have the kit and the wit.

    The idea that quantity beats quality died with the Maxim Gun.

    Note also the lines of broken down tanks, etc, and the fate of the Moscow warship. Once people are conscripted it becomes hard to hide from them the omnishambles they face when they go to the 'front'... which with HIMAR, drones, etc, facing them can be pretty 'deep' so far as their vulnerability goes. You can't stop some things with a rifle and two bullets used by someone who still can't shoot straight in a panic.
    DimitryZ likes this.
  14. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    I found this vox pop video from 1420 very poignant

  15. MUTTY1

    MUTTY1 Waste of bandwidth

    Found this short piece persuasive/reassuring….
    Alex S, Mike Reed and palindrome like this.
  16. gints

    gints pfm Member

    Autumn and spring are times when conscripts, after serving one year, go home. Probably not this time. They are fresh trained. Also conscripts now officially can do jobs in logistics and before front line, so paid soldiers can go fight.
  17. russel

    russel ./_dazed_and_confused

    Even if 99% of the nuclear weapons do not work then that is still several hundred warheads. It only takes a single SS18 missile to destroy an area the size of France or Texas.
  18. palindrome

    palindrome Thru a hedge, backwards and forwards.

    That's an excellent piece of analysis; worth paying attention to what Justin Bronk has to say. Reassuring, like you say @MUTTY1, although we still can't discount the wayward mindset of a psychopath.

  19. MUTTY1

    MUTTY1 Waste of bandwidth

    Yes, nothing is for certain but that is analysis rather than some wishful thinking articles that are kicking about over this subject. I’ve seen a few pieces by the RUSI and yet to be disappointed.
  20. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    Very insightful and logically put argument here, Mutty. One can only take crumbs of comfort from his potential scenarios, as he seems to know his stuff.

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