Ukraine II

[Mullardman]

Just watched Jeffrey Sachs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sachs) talking utter bollocks on BBC.
Another one who seems to think that you can negotiate with a lunatic.

 

[ks.234]

Russia invaded. It is therefore responsible for all casualties. It is THAT simple.

Do you mean Russia, or the Russians, or just Putin, or just Putin and his cronies?

 

[ks.234]

Just watched Jeffrey Sachs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sachs) talking utter bollocks on BBC.
Another one who seems to think that you can negotiate with a lunatic.

There are only two likely outcomes, one is a continuation of war until one side wins, the other is a negotiated withdrawal. The first will mean a long drawn out conflict in which the collateral damage will be inflicted upon mostly Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian men, women and children, so if the objective is bring the suffering of Ukrainian men women and children to an end as soon as possible, then negotiation is the only option left.

 

[paulfromcamden]

Easy for me to say because I am not fighting or dying in the cold in Ukraine, but in my view there can be NO deal, when the choice is between domination by an authoritarian dictatorship, and the survival of Democracy.

Some kind of 'deal' is how all conflicts end.

 

[Tony L]

There are only two likely outcomes, one is a continuation of war until one side wins, the other is a negotiated withdrawal. The first will mean a long drawn out conflict in which the collateral damage will be inflicted upon mostly Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian men, women and children, so if the objective is bring the suffering of Ukrainian men women and children to an end as soon as possible, then negotiation is the only option left.

Agreed. The sanctions need to really bite first. They are having an effect, apparently many Russian supermarkets are empty etc, pressure is clearly ramping up on the oligarch elite etc. The west is maybe a major Russian bank-run away from a solid negotiation position. Ukraine needs to hold out until that point IMO.

 

[laughingboy]

Agreed. The sanctions need to really bite first. They are having an effect, apparently many Russian supermarkets are empty etc, pressure is clearly ramping up on the oligarch elite etc. The west is maybe a major Russian bank-run away from a solid negotiation position. Ukraine needs to hold out until that point IMO.

Allies of Ukraine need to do more. At this stage, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs, shouldn't have to be tweeting this:

To those abroad scared of being ‘dragged into WWIII’. Ukraine fights back successfully. We need you to help us fight. Provide us with all necessary weapons. Apply more sanctions on Russia and isolate it fully. Help Ukraine force Putin into failure and you will avert a larger war.

 

[dweezil]

Russia needs to be vaguely desperate so that some form of guarantee can be built in.

I wouldn't put much value on Putin's word and any successor could well start this again when they've had time to restock and train the troops.

 

[waxkinglyrical]

I have yet to find an analyst who has offered an accepted explanation as to why the Russians have held back 85% of their air force.

Unless, they are being held in reserve for strikes in an adjacent theatre or simply susceptible to surface to air strikes. Expensive hardware and pilot loss could figure in that decision too.

Surely though, the top brass aren’t all Putin’s men and some, like Canaris in WWII, will have back channels to the west. Factor in families, friends along with severe doubts as to the campaign and that may eventually prove significant.

All supposition on my part of course.

 

[———-]

Right now Nazi Ukrainians kill 20 people in Donetsk by rocket Tochka-U. It's regular terrorism as there no military points inside Donetsk.
The VSU is obviously not going to storm Donetsk. It's just the revenge of the retreating Nazis on the civilians of the city.

Let see when it appears on your honest and independent media. Then let see which of your leaders blame Zelensky for such act of violence.
https://www.reuters.com
https://edition.cnn.com
https://www.bbc.com

It's hard to see (18+)
https://t.me/smotri_media/9746
https://t.me/bbbreaking/119362

 

[Tony L]

Allies of Ukraine need to do more. At this stage, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs, shouldn't have to be tweeting this:

I agree. I’ve argued many time that the west needs to supply Ukraine with whatever weapons it can use along with humanitarian aid and sanctuary for refugees. I draw the line at direct NATO intervention (e.g. attempting to impose a ‘no fly zone’ etc). That can only escalate matters. It is painful, but I suspect the only way out here is to cripple Russia with sanctions to the point his strangle-hold on that country is weakened, and then allow Ukraine to negotiate a peace even if there is some degree of compromise to it.

 

[Seeker_UK]

I agree with this. I imagine some of the NATO people are making careful notes. However I have yet to find an analyst who has offered an accepted explanation as to why the Russians have held back 85% of their air force. A policy of leaving ground forces apparently with inadequate cover seems to be widely viewed as a big no-no which hasn't (I think( been publicly explained.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

"Another potential explanation is that the VKS are not confident in their capacity to safely deconflict large-scale sorties with the activity of Russian ground-based SAMs operated by the Ground Forces. Friendly-fire incidents by ground-based SAM units have been a problem for Western and Russian air forces alike in multiple conflicts since 1990. Running joint engagement zones in which combat aircraft and SAM systems can engage enemy forces simultaneously in a complex environment without friendly-fire incidents is hard; it requires close inter-service cooperation, excellent communications and regular training to master. So far, Russian forces have shown extremely poor coordination across the board, from basic logistics tasks, to coordination of airborne assaults with ground forces activity and arranging air defence cover for columns on the move."

Caveat - the RUSI paper was written 5 days after the invasion started.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Agreed. The sanctions need to really bite first. They are having an effect, apparently many Russian supermarkets are empty etc, pressure is clearly ramping up on the oligarch elite etc. The west is maybe a major Russian bank-run away from a solid negotiation position. Ukraine needs to hold out until that point IMO.

I think I heard a statement over the weekend to the end that there is about 2-3 months to go before they're felt by the Russian population (ie when bulk stores are depleted). That's a big ask on Ukraine to tough it out until then.

 

[Tony L]

I think I heard a statement over the weekend to the end that there is about 2-3 months to go before they're felt by the Russian population (ie when bulk stores are depleted). That's a big ask on Ukraine to tough it out until then.

That is worrying if true. Surprising too given Russia is a net importer of goods that makes very little itself. SWIFT has gone, it is off most financial markets, vast numbers of countries and corporate brands are boycotting it. I know not a reliable source, but I’ve certainly seen lots of pictures on Twitter of empty supermarket shelves etc. People look to have been panic buying and there are apparently very rigid limits on how much cash can be withdrawn from banks (to avert bank-runs).

 

[Seeker_UK]

That is worrying if true. Surprising too given Russia is a net importer of goods that makes very little itself. SWIFT has gone, it is off most financial markets, vast numbers of countries and corporate brands are boycotting it. I know not a reliable source, but I’ve certainly seen lots of pictures on Twitter of empty supermarket shelves etc. People look to have been panic buying and there are apparently very rigid limits on how much cash can be withdrawn from banks (to avert bank-runs).

The issue is not about getting their hands on imported goods / services or food price increases; Russians are very resilient. However, when the food starts to run out (ie not just subject to strict control) and becomes more than just another hardship (on top of the ones shouldered for years), I think that's when the effect will be really felt by the populations in Russian cities. Russia has claimed in the past it holds a two-month national food reserve (https://russiabusinesstoday.com/agr...two-month-reserve-of-food-authorities-inform/) so, if they have, that's the timeframe you're looking at.

 

[ks.234]

Agreed. The sanctions need to really bite first. They are having an effect, apparently many Russian supermarkets are empty etc, pressure is clearly ramping up on the oligarch elite etc. The west is maybe a major Russian bank-run away from a solid negotiation position. Ukraine needs to hold out until that point IMO.

Still not sure about sanctions as they will hit Russians people first and foremost and Putin will be able to insulate himself from Russian people and public opinion. Same with a bank run and any consequent run away inflation, I doubt that the oligarchs will hold their wealth in Russian roubles, so again, it will be the Russian people whose savings and wages are in Roubles, who are hit.

As unpalatable as it is, any negotiated withdrawal will have to give Putin enough for him to claim a victory. Difficult to say with any certainty, but the more wild claims that Putin has imperialist aims to expand further into Europe seem unlikely, more likely his ambitions are Ukraine based. He may have had ambitions to overthrow the democratic government and replace it with something more Belarusian, but as the war appears to be going so badly, he might be willing to accept Ukrainian neutrality on the grounds that he can say that’s all he wanted all along. Bollocks of course, but if it brings the suffering of men, women and children to a swifter end, that will be a price worth paying

 

[———-]

I don't want to upset you but Turkey, Iran, Georgia and CIS countries, China don't put any sanctions on Russia so there will be no food deficit.
I sure there will be food price increase but it will be all around the world.

 

[anubisgrau]

Our friend was attempting sarcasm. I think.

Not really, that's next. A matter of time. A simple logic - your people kill our buddies, we kill you.

 

[laughingboy]

That is worrying if true. Surprising too given Russia is a net importer of goods that makes very little itself. SWIFT has gone, it is off most financial markets, vast numbers of countries and corporate brands are boycotting it. I know not a reliable source, but I’ve certainly seen lots of pictures on Twitter of empty supermarket shelves etc. People look to have been panic buying and there are apparently very rigid limits on how much cash can be withdrawn from banks (to avert bank-runs).

The FT is reporting that Russia could default on its debts as soon as Wednesday, by making dollar-denominated external debt repayments in roubles. Story here (Russia threatens to make external debt repayments in roubles). I suppose the Russian gamble is that, by defaulting, they might cause write-downs that inflict havoc on foreign markets.

 

[kenniGT]

in Donetsk

Donesk is Ukrainian region attacked by Russian militia in 2014. And since then economically destroyed. Fighting all the time.
Whatever happens there, again russian are to blame as they invaded the region.
You do not know details, you do not know who is shooting, and for sure you do not know is anyone is nazi there. Fascist yes, and that Russians.

 

[———-]

Right now Nazi Ukrainians kill 20 people in Donetsk by rocket Tochka-U. It's regular terrorism as there no military points inside Donetsk.
The VSU is obviously not going to storm Donetsk. It's just the revenge of the retreating Nazis on the civilians of the city.

Let see when it appears on your honest and independent media. Then let see which of your leaders blame Zelensky for such act of violence.
https://www.reuters.com
https://edition.cnn.com
https://www.bbc.com

It's hard to see (18+)
https://t.me/smotri_media/9746
https://t.me/bbbreaking/119362

So hour later no updates from your honest media. Let see, let see.

23 people (including children) killed today by Ukranian Nazi Army.
https://t.me/mig41/14824