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UK Election 2015 (part II)

Discussion in 'off topic' started by cooky1257, Apr 22, 2015.

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  1. Colin L

    Colin L LOU Attitude Adjuster

    PaulR,

    Im struggling to see what you point is about the Finns (and the graph in the article). Please explain. The article is more about politics than economics.

    The Telegraph article shows UK Gross GDP crashed after the financial crisis and the onset of austerity. Gross GDP slowly has slowly recovered and recently exceeded the 2008 levels after about 5 years below. The graph I quoted (from Mainlymacro) is GDP per capita - you do know the difference dont you?

    Referencing the Telegraph is laughable - the most rabid pro-Tory rag in the country and little better than the Daily Mail for integrity... and by the way, the article is written by a trainee journalist with a degree in Politics, a somewhat lesser authority than a nationally respected Economics Professor.
     
  2. Brian

    Brian Eating fat, staying slim

    Tory desperation is going to become more embarrassing the closer it gets to the end for them.
     
  3. Mullardman

    Mullardman Moderately extreme...

    Mick,
    Re: Strawmen, I find myself in rare agreement with you. Definitions given above are a bit too convenient. I spent some time researching the whole idea of the Strawman last night and there are numerous variations on a theme.

    Mull
     
  4. Mullardman

    Mullardman Moderately extreme...

    Anyway, I can't be bothered with the election arguments anymore. The whole charade has now descended into a bizarre bidding war with all parties bastardising what semblance of principle they have in vain attempts to offer 'more' than the others.

    If we pull back from all this a little, we all know deep down that no govt. has more than a tangential effect on the winds blowing our economy this way and that.

    Which kind of brings us back to looking at what parties believe in and what they intend over and above carping on about the bloody deficit.

    I believe, possibly naively, that the Tories are still the evil, self interested lying thieving bastards they've always been and the Lib Dems still don't quite know which way they're facing.

    Which leaves me with Labour, who at least make a pretence of caring about rather more that their own arse pockets.

    The rest are irrelevant.

    Cue Tony ;)

    Mull
     
  5. Paul R

    Paul R pfm Member

    Finns suffering from austerity. Seemed relevant.

    Compare gradients to the other countries. Run the trend forwards into the future. Does the public sector pain then lead to later benefits? The graph might imply that if I were a mainlymacro type of chap.

    It was 'logged'. What does that mean? Did you actually understand what you were posting? Do you get why a rising straight line on a logarithmic scale is unlikely to represent reality over anything other than a very short time period?

    Finland. Austerity. European GDP trends. You've clearly demonstrated they are all nonsense.

    Your respected Economics Professor seems only interested in demonstrating stuff that is politically helpful to Labour and is happy to manipulate statistics to that end. Which, IMO, is a bit shit for a professor. His blog may have good stuff in, but it's not trustworthy. And, given it is not amusing, it's of much less value than (for example) Guido Fawkes, which is obviously untrustworthy yet occasionally entertaining.

    Paul
     
  6. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    You have to be kidding! IIRC a few of the last Labour govenment got locked up for expenses fraud, flipping properties etc, and plenty more (e.g. Hazel Blears etc) really should have been. Plenty of trough-feeding scum in that party for sure. That they steal from us whilst pretending to stand for social justice makes then even worse IMHO. At least one knows from the outset that Tories are grasping sociopathic short-termist arseholes as it's in their manifesto!
     
  7. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    The Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru, are the only relevant parties.

    All the others are EU-kowtowers, corrupt corporate money-grabbers and racist boneheads.

    Jack
     
  8. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    Taking the log of time series data is a very standard thing no? Certainly it's used all the time in Economics by lots of people not least the BoE. My understanding is that for data that changes at a roughly constant percentage rate the log over time will be linear so it's the best way to see trend and deviation from trend.

    That is equal parts tawdry and risible.
     
  9. Mullardman

    Mullardman Moderately extreme...

    We know that there are crooks in all parties. It's a question of scale.

    Mull
     
  10. auric

    auric pfm Member

  11. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

  12. Mick P

    Mick P Retired and content

    Jack

    Sorry but you are 100% wrong.

    If we have a hung Parliament then either Labour or the Tories will have to do deals on a weekly basis with these minority parties. One side will have to offer this in exchange for that. The end result is that every party is going to have to compromise its manifesto whether we like it or not.

    The reason why every party is promising everything is that they know that due to a hung Parliament they will never have to deliver and this is another disadvantage of hung Parliament, every party will promise the earth in the full knowledge that they will have the excuse that the other party with whom they were in partnership stopped them from doing it.

    It is often said that we get the political system we deserve and right now we are walking into an environment which we actually encourage politicians to exaggerate and lie.

    Manifestos are frankly pointless in this election and the small parties who will hold the balance of power are those most likely to be compromised. In other words, only a fool would believe anyone in 2015.

    So all this talk of one party v the other is a total waste of time.

    Regards

    Mick
     
  13. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    Manifestos are frankly pointless in any election. Unless election promises are made legally binding, politicians will continue to lie and exaggerate as they always have done.
     
  14. Brian

    Brian Eating fat, staying slim

    But it does appear in nice big letters at the top, the comment from auric is fine and justified.

    Tories have £30bn black hole in spending plans, says IFS


    The tories are planning further attacks on the vulnerable, which is why they lie and won't explain anything.

     
  15. Brian

    Brian Eating fat, staying slim

    Which is impossible for any govt and is frankly a daft notion.
     
  16. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    Why 'impossible'? You can have the usual guff that all parties spout about better schools, better NHS, law 'n order, because 'better' is sufficiently vague, but any specific promises, e.g. 'we will hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU', or 'we will build 500,000 affordable new homes' should either be legally binding or not made at all. As it is, politicians promise the earth, and the only way they can be held to account when they fail to do so is by voting them out after 5 years, and voting in another lot who make equally worthless promises.
     
  17. Brian

    Brian Eating fat, staying slim

    Because realistically circumstances can and do change during a term in govt, eg bankers in very recent times part way through a govt term changed everything, despite how tories may like to lay the blame elsewhere.

    I don't like them either and their promises get on my nerves, but the fact is promises made in good faith may not be possible to fulfil due to any number of reasons.
     
  18. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    That simply means that politicians ought to be more careful with what they promise. If they were put on trial for breaking a specific promise 'unforeseen circumstances' could of course be a valid defence, or might result in a shorter prison sentence.
     
  19. auric

    auric pfm Member

    I expect many things outside the control of UK PLC may cause some of the manifesto policies to not come true. I am thinking of a mortgage based crash flowing outwards from the US a few years ago that caused some UK banks to faultier and so incur spending not foreseen in the last manifesto; I am thinking of oil price movements that caused HMRC not to collect the forecast taxes.

    One thing you can be sure is that lawyers will be laughing all the way to their banks as they fight to define one way or the other what could be foreseen, what was under the control of UK PLC and the exact meaning of as manifesto.
     
  20. Brian

    Brian Eating fat, staying slim

    No it doesnt.

    We'll have to disagree.

    Cheers.
     
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