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UK Election 2015 (part II)

Discussion in 'off topic' started by cooky1257, Apr 22, 2015.

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  1. auric

    auric pfm Member

  2. Bob McC

    Bob McC Living the life of Riley

    QUITE!
     
  3. adamk

    adamk pfm Member

    Really ???

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32424739

    'The IFS said Labour had been "considerably more vague" about how much it wants to borrow.'
     
  4. auric

    auric pfm Member

  5. stephen bennett

    stephen bennett Mr Enigma

  6. auric

    auric pfm Member

    Page 4 of would suggest those are not the words used, can't find the phrase "considerably more vague" used at all in the IFS report. Any ideas?
     
  7. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    Yeah, the BBC are pro-Tory and anti everybody else, especially the SNP. That's what you'd expect from the propaganda wing of the government.

    Sky are worse, but their advertisers expect that.

    Jack
     
  8. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    He is very much non-neutral politically. But he is a highly respected academic and what he is saying is very standard economics to which there is little if no serious objection.

    So if you have spotted a basic error then you should probably speak up :) (which is a bit of a lame appeal to authority, but I am very busy).
     
  9. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    In the sense that where they have said things like "We will provide extra midwives" they have said where that money is coming from and they have not doe things like, to pick a random example, "We will magic up £6bn a year extra from behind the sofa to spend on the NHS".

    I am not sure that political parties projecting detailed debt, tax take and GDP levels with any accuracy makes much sense given that anyone who has every tied this (BoE, Economists, banks, etc) have been consistently wrong.
     
  10. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    SWL's New Statesman article is now online : http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...ces-george-osborne-covering-austerity-mistake
     
  11. TPA

    TPA Trade: Tiger Paw

    Analysing the UK economy in isolation has limited value. Comparative performance is more meaningful and it would appear that the UK is doing ok in that context.

    Or else we stay in the cyclical argument area where people can trot out any supporting numbers they wish to show good or poor decisions in isolation.
     
  12. Tigerjones

    Tigerjones Bagpuss

    That's totally missing the point of the article, if you've read it.
     
  13. Darth Vader

    Darth Vader From the Dark Side

    From the UK governments own website:-

    "The UK economy is now estimated to have
    contracted by -6% between 2008 Q1 – 2009 Q2
    (previous estimate was -7.2%)

    It subsequently grew by +8.7% between 2009
    Q2 – 2014 Q2 (previous estimate was +7.9%)

    As a result, GDP reached its pre-crisis peak in
    2013 Q3; three quarters earlier than previous
    estimates suggested

    A key driver of this was the rebound in
    business investment, growing by +20.6% during
    2009 – 2013 (previous estimate was +3.2%)

    Business investment is now thought to have
    contributed around one-third of growth
    between 2010 and 2013".

    Source: Department for Business, Innovation & Skills

    The graph of GDP growth over this period shows a typical linear increase following the formula y=bx i.e the rate of GDP growth was proportional to time a year on year steady performance.

    This information is a known published quantity unlike 'may have' which is little more than conjecture and is aimed at deliberately stirring up bad feelings. Psychology is a powerful tool and those that use it in politics know that once they have made a person think a thought its very difficult for them to unthink it.

    Cheers,

    DV
     
  14. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    It's not clear whether the phrase is a BBC paraphrase of the report, or a paraphrase of the report by Carl Emmerson, but the report does include the following statement:

    'the Labour Party has provided disappointingly little information on exactly how much they would borrow if they were in government after the next election. They have committed to only borrowing to invest by the end of the parliament, but they have been less than clear about when they would like to achieve this.' ('Conclusions', p.39).

    'Considerably more vague' doesn't seem to be an unfair summary of those sentiments.
     
  15. Paul R

    Paul R pfm Member

    I pointed out why his chart was misleading.

    Colin's uncredited chart on an earlier page looks similarly sourced, that's misleading too.

    So I don't care about his authority because the integrity seems a bit suspect.

    This Telegraph story about Finland (victim of austerity and the Euro) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...inland-could-tear-apart-the-euro-project.html contains an interesting graph of GDP for various countries that I cannot seem to link directly to. It's much harder to justify your and the Oxford academic's claims with though.

    Paul
     
  16. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    It's government's own numbers from the OBR! If you want to accuse them of "conjecture and stirring up bad feelings" then be my guest.
     
  17. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    The differences in the charts are because one is Real GDP and one in nominal.

    You are questioning a widely respected academics integrity while posting articles from a newspaper that ignores major stories if they reflect badly on major advertisers?
     
  18. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    Oh and on the subject of Austerity and re-imagining the past, this from Krugman:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/20...Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body
     
  19. Paul R

    Paul R pfm Member

    Which charts? The measure I was objecting to was expressing debt as a fraction of GDP when the two are not independent.

    The integrity of his selective use of data to advance a political position.

    Is there a problem with the graph from the Telegraph? Is the situation of Finland not interesting? Do Finns not buy enough advertising?

    Paul
     
  20. MikeMA

    MikeMA pfm Member

    I think we can all agree on this. It' partly why I don't take too much notice of economists, particularly academic economists.
     
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