I just wanted to explain what has happen with A-level results as the media (certain outlets of course) are now pushing the blame of students being downgraded onto teachers. The same thing will happen next Thursday on GCSE results day on a much wider scale so let me explain what actually happened.
In March teachers were asked to submit a centre assessed grade (CAG) CAGs are NOT mock results. They a cumulative and holistic assessment of that student over time taking into consideration their mock exam (which many schools would have done in January) their marked assignments, work ethic and a number of other factors, it is not based on one single assessment like a mock exam. So if you have a student who got a B in their mock you may say that student will get an A as they improve over the next 5 months based on their marked work and other contributing factors. This is standard teacher prediction we do it every year for hundred of students to predict our school performance and implement intervention where needed. It’s a very accurate form of prediction with the majority of schools performing within 1% of their predictions (unless something goes very wrong), so very small margins of inaccuracy.
On this occasion because the stakes were high these teacher assessed grades were submitted to the head of department who moderated them (this is the process that happened at my school and most other schools I know). After this the senior team analysed the data and corrected/questioned any anomalies. For example if a child has been predicted grade C in other subjects and grade A in one we would ask what evidence that member of staff had for that prediction. Moderation again is a standard teacher practice and something that middle and senior leaders will be expert at. Once we were happy with the grades awarded to students we then had to rank them within their grades, so for example if you had 10 students all predicted a C you would have to say who is your number 1 C and who is your number 10 and rank all those in between. You had to do this for every grade. This was the part we assumed would be where students were ‘cut’. If students take an exam the grade boundaries are adjusted according to a variety of factors meaning that those at the top of the grade are often boosted and those at the bottom are often dropped into the next grade. If a child is dropped close to a grade boundary they are able to see how close they were to that grade, if it were a couple of marks it is worth them requesting a remark on their paper as it is likely they could go up ( exam marking is again done by teachers who will always have a degree of human differentiation).
What actually happened is the grades we submitted were put into an ‘algorithm’ that applied a number of factors in determining the students grade. Some of these factors included:
Where the child lives ( if they are from an area of social deprivation or an affluent area)
The post code of the school (as above)
The schools overall historical performance
Students historical performance in that subject
Size of school ( smaller schools/colleges performing better due to small class size, mainly applicable to independent schools who have a high staff to student ratio)
Using student X as an example. He was predicted 2 A* and 1 A grade at A-level which were sent off as his CAGs. His first choice uni being Cambridge which after an extensive application process (including the submission of assignments) he was accepted to. The grades he received are BBC meaning he dropped 2 grades in every subject. Why? Well his postcode is in an area of low income. The school is in one of the most socially deprived post codes in the country. Last year the cohort taking the subject were not as academic ( their gcse grades were lower) so grades were not as high as they would have been this year which is in line with normal trajectory.
So what will happen now? He gets rejected from Cambridge. He can appeal and request his mock grade be used, a less reliable source than teacher assessment, but it is likely that Cambridge will not hold his place or defer it until next year. Who will the top universities be filled with? Those from independent schools who the algorithm was written to benefit; affluent, small, history of above average results.
The handling of this has further widened the gap in education between the haves and have nots. A student in an independent school who was predicted a B will have secured that grade, whereas a student from a state school who was predicted an A can end up with a C. It’s not just the most academic, low income students that are affected. Students predicted Cs have ended up with U grades due to spreading the rank over the model curve ( I won’t explain this hear but happy to discuss further if anyone wants the info). This will mean that any students with conditional offers won’t get their place even at non Russell group uni.
So to summarise, no it is not the teachers, it’s not even the exam boards. It is the government who instructed the system. In a cabinet filled with public school boys they’ve literally screwed over poor kids in the most crude of ways in a system already designed to favour the ‘elite’.
To conclude, if any parents or young people you know need some support with appeals or uni application please let me know.