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To Parents of 16 and 18 year olds

As a Head of Department, if I consistently got results below what I’d predicted, I’d be in trouble.

Good to hear it - but are you in a school, college or University? They are managed differently. If you are a Head in a school how do we get to a point where it is said (and there must be data) that 40% of teachers over predict? Is every teacher on this forum going to say ‘not my school’? Then which schools?
 
It seems to be accepted that the downgrading of students grades is because of teachers giving over generous predictions. But is it?

First of all any teacher who consistently over predicts will be censured. But more important the algorithm is primarily based on the past results of schools, not on individual predicted grades.

There was a discussion about this algorithm on the BBC News at lunchtime and iirc the algorithm operates in 3 stages, first it looks at the past record of school in that subject and then it tries to match the range of grades this year, with the range of grades in the past

Only then do predictions come into play, but not as a grade, only as a ranking, so that if E was at the bottom of the range in previous years, the bottom grade this year has to also be an E

So as I understand it, a pupil could theoretically be set for an A grade, but if everyone else in their class was predicted an A*, they would have to get the E.

The algorithm does not consider current data, it only produces data that reflects the past

The presenter, Mark Mardell, said, "isn't that an inherent bias towards the status quo, you could say an algorithm says that the last two out of three prime ministers went to Eton so that should be what happens in the future"

This monumental injustice is not down to teachers, its down the data that this government chooses to look at.

(Frankly, it would probably be more accurate if teacher predictions were used instead of this algorithm. It would certainly be fairer.)

Unfortunately, the algorithm cannot distinguish between accurate students’ estimated grades snd inflated ones
This is the core of the injustice
The algorithm just looks at data
So the risk of a genuine candidate being downgraded is similar ( all else being equal ) to one with an inflated grade


The real culprits here are the over- generous teachers

As referred to above, there are pressures on teachers and schools to achieve the highest grades they can, and hence be over- generous , so teachers are not likely to be objective in their judgements. A clear conflict of interests which would be thrown out of any court of law

The evidence for this is very clear:

We know that if results adhered to teachers’ predictions, results would improve by up to nearly 20% over recent years’ results......not credible

If teachers’ predictions were accurate, all students would get exactly what they deserve

As I mentioned above, the teacher predictions used in the grading process are supposed to be strictly confidential, so I wonder how I am hearing about about a disparity between predictions and awarded grades on the news?

Yet ironically, Nicola Sturgeon, Keir Starmer and others suggest that teacher predictions should be upheld !

Pure political expediency!

unbelievable!


Simon
 
This is the most sense I’ve heard in a long time - thank you Simon. In an impossible situation what is a fair system? The Labour Party have no alternative except to make platitudes about ‘fairness’ to grab some voters from disillusioned youngsters. Absolutely no genuine alternative apart from use the teachers assessments. If that happens I for one (As an employer ) will look sceptically at the qualifications from this year’s cohort - although of course I look at other evidence of skills and achievements. Where’s the fairness in this year’s A level cohort getting inflated results based on teacher assessments? Is that fair to their peers who studied the previous couple of years ? Fairness isn’t only about those who are upset today!

I’d like to see five years worth of data comparing teacher (over) assessments compared to real results in their schools. Let’s see whether this is more reliable than the algorithm. The algorithm is flawed but if 40% of teachers over predict then they must take a large part of the blame. If they were reliable we wouldn’t need an algorithm

As for the suggestion that teachers could be censured - really? When has that happened then? I have family who teach in secondary education so I have no axe to grind with the profession per se but in what industry would you be allowed to over inflate achievements years on the trot and keep your job?

I agree this has been a fiasco and as someone who is first generation university, working class into a grammar school I very much feel for the Working class high achievers. They are being disproportionately affected and potentially without the support mechanisms or options given to others. Missing out on a top university place that you won’t get back (even if you successfully appeal) will be genuinely heartbreaking. Shame on those universities who claim to be taking more working class students but won’t keep back some of their places. That could have put some of this right.

But unfortunately I still feel teachers should do less bleating and accept that their persistent over predictions have made their judgements more unreliable than the algorithm.
Sorry, but you’re assumptions are flawed.

The algorithm is not based on teacher predictions. The algorithm is based on past results of the school and then on the range of results in each subject. Only at the third stage does the algorithm consider teachers data, but not as individual grades, but only as a ranking. Thus, if the bottom grade in past years was an average of an E, then E has to be the bottom grade this year. Students are being downgraded not because of teacher over predictions, but because of their position in the rank order as determined by the algorithm.

Finally to teacher predictions themselves. The assumption that teachers routinely over predict is also flawed. Every year a teacher has to set themselves targets for their own performance management against which they will be judged at the end of each performance management cycle. If a teacher over predicts, then obviously their actual results will be down on that prediction and they will be judged to be underperforming. Consistent judgements of underperformance will lead to a teacher being subject to the Capability procedure.

Your use of language suggests a low opinion of teachers, but please don’t blame the fact that 40% of this years A level students have been downgraded on teacher predictions because it just ain’t so
 
Unfortunately, the algorithm cannot distinguish between accurate students’ estimated grades snd inflated ones

The algorithm doesn’t even look at estimated grades, inflated or otherwise, it looks at the rank order of grades, The injustice occurs where the algorithm determines what the bottom grade in that ranking is based on past results, regardless of individual performance today
 
This year will always be seen as anomalous whatever system was used.

All the pain for families and students (and schools and universities) could have been avoided by just accepting teachers’ estimates.

Stephen
Agreed. Teachers are trusted to educate the next generation so why can't they be trusted to grade them?

My daughter is sixteen, expecting results around the pass mark (4s, 5s) so is nervous - so am I but I'm not talking too much about it because there is no point turning the nervousness into something more permanent. She has a place at Plymouth College of Art regardless but what she gets this week will determine what her next five years or so look like.

She is a hard worker and achieves more than expected so it won't be the end of the world if things don't go her way, but it'd be nice for her to have a happy ending to this story.
 
This year will always be seen as anomalous whatever system was used.

All the pain for families and students (and schools and universities) could have been avoided by just accepting teachers’ estimates.

Stephen
And miss the opportunity to have a go at teachers?

Good luck Myles.
 
No folks my assumption is not flawed. If I was unclear I apologise. I realise the algorithm is based on real results over several years. My point is there has to be some Quantitative (ie data driven) mechanism to drive outcomes this year if the qualitative (over predicted) teacher information is so flawed. Not just flawed this year but flawed over several years.

I expected this backlash and a defence of teachers. Quite right in terms of the hard work they put in and the difficult job they do. As my post says, I have family in teaching. I don’t hold all teachers in disdain. However, the data is the data. If (assuming the data is correct) a high number of teachers over predict then there is no point saying they are a reliable source of assessment. They clearly are not. So let’s not use their predictions. Those predictions are unfair to the many years of cohorts who had to take exams to get real grades. Hence why I disagree with Stephen too

The fairest process (accepted still unfair but less flawed than teacher predictions) is a combinations of appeals, re-sits (accepting the first sets didn’t really happen) and all universities (inc the top ones) keeping some spaces open. The elitist universities are so over subscribed even without international students That they don’t really care (and never have cared) about really bright underprivileged kids who have lost out most in this process.

If teacher predictions were anywhere close to accurate in the first place you wouldn’t need an algorithm.
 
Agreed. Teachers are trusted to educate the next generation so why can't they be trusted to grade them?erQUOTE]

because the data shows so many of them get it wrong! If they were more honest with their students rather than inflating their expectations (OK call it morale boosting) we wouldn’t have 40% mis predicted!
 
You don't explain why private school teachers are apparently under-predicting achievement such that those kids have done better than those in previous years.
 
And miss the opportunity to have a go at teachers?

Good luck Myles.
Cheers @Seanm , I do feel for those who are going through this. I'll just have to explain, with the benefit of experience, how it isn't the end of the world - even though it will feel like it is.
 
As I mentioned above, the teacher predictions used in the grading process are supposed to be strictly confidential, so I wonder how I am hearing about about a disparity between predictions and awarded grades on the news?
Pupils can request their predicted grades, presumably under freedom of information type rules.
 
I'll just have to explain, with the benefit of experience, how it isn't the end of the world - even though it will feel like it is.
I don't see anyone claiming it is the end of the world. It is grossly unfair.
"Samantha Smith, a grammar school student from Telford, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that her results had been downgraded from As and A* grades to a B, E and U.
"I know I didn't sit the exam but I didn't think I'd be treated as if I didn't turn up for the exam," she said.
"I've now got no university places, because of the algorithm and the system of being treated as if your postcode matters more than your potential."
 
I don't see anyone claiming it is the end of the world. It is grossly unfair.
"Samantha Smith, a grammar school student from Telford, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that her results had been downgraded from As and A* grades to a B, E and U.
"I know I didn't sit the exam but I didn't think I'd be treated as if I didn't turn up for the exam," she said.
"I've now got no university places, because of the algorithm and the system of being treated as if your postcode matters more than your potential."
Tell that to a sixteen year old who has a firm plan in their head then has it taken away for whatever reason. It is the end of the world in their mind.

The example above - I can guarantee she thinks it feels like the end of the world, and I absolutely empathize.
 
Can we imagine a world where the algorithm disproportionately penalised private school candidates?
Difficult isn't it.
Oh the hue and cry...and the immediate acceptance of predicted grades.

Life's not fair. Crack on.
Vote Labour.*

*Other opposition parties are available.
 
because the data shows so many of them get it wrong! If they were more honest with their students rather than inflating their expectations (OK call it morale boosting) we wouldn’t have 40% mis predicted!
Where is this data that shows that teachers have got predictions wrong? Teachers do not over inflate predictions, it is not in their interest and it is not in the interest of pupils.

40% of pupils have not been mis predicted, 40% of pupils have been downgraded by an algorithm
 
This year will always be seen as anomalous whatever system was used.

All the pain for families and students (and schools and universities) could have been avoided by just accepting teachers’ estimates.

Stephen


That is exactly the sort of cynical politics proposed by Nicola Sturgeon , Kier Starmer, etc

Yeah......give everyone a prize ......everyone can be a winner!

everybody gets what they want!

Unfortunately it is the deserving students who would see the value of their award wiped out

Would you be happy, say, to be treated by a medic who had been given their qualification out of kindness, rather than any real evidence that it was deserved?


simon
 
Where is this data that shows that teachers have got predictions wrong? Teachers do not over inflate predictions, it is not in their interest and it is not in the interest of pupils.

40% of pupils have not been mis predicted, 40% of pupils have been downgraded by an algorithm

The evidence is very clear:

If grades adhered to teacher predictions, results would improve by between 12-20%
That is simply not credible

it is certainly in the interest of teachers and schools to attain the best results possible because this is how their performance is judged

i am sure there are are detailed anomalies in the detail of the algorithm , but the basic principle still applies

simon
 
The idea that teachers over predict seems to have got stuck in some people’s minds. It just isn’t true.
Another tiny sample but my son was disappointed with his predicted grades and said he would have out-performed them. He certainly did so at GCSE.
Instead he received further downgrades.
Not a criticism of his teachers just that the predicted grades did not reflect how some kids pull their performances up at exams.
 


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