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Stock Market 2020

Discussion in 'off topic' started by andyoz, Feb 26, 2020.

  1. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    Similar stories from silicon valley, where I was working at the time. If you exercised stock options, even if you didn't sell them, you were liable for CGT on the difference between your option price (say $10c - $1) and the current stock price of the company, which might have been $20+ per share. Multiply by say 20k shares and you have an unrealized capital gain of $400k on which CGT is due. However if the share price collapses and you still haven't sold the shares you may have no way to pay your tax bill in year N, even though you'll have a massive capital LOSS in year N+1. Many got into trouble this way by exercising and then holding their shares (and not doing a same day sale).
  2. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    ^^ I knew a few who got hammered by this. Very harsh really. I always dumped them the same day and slept at night.
  3. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    Negative IR’s around the corner?
  4. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yeah, I sold a few on Monday too (not RR which bugs me now). Just left with the dregs and Gold and Silver that are starting to wake up again anyway.

    Looking a cash deal on a nice buy-to-let too. Price is down near 20% from the 'perceived' market value.

    Who said Cash Is Trash ?
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2020
  5. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Tomorrow will be a very interesting day in the markets.

    It's largely sentiment driven (definitely not valuation driven). Could go either way. I'm pretty much a spectator now anyway.
  6. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    In the medium to long term, yes, short term, no. I think in these times it’s a case of stick to what you know. I too like property as a long term income and investment. If you are a proceedable cash buyer you’ll be very appealing to some right now. The longer term tax regime is my main concern.
  7. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, you need to have stepped off the hamster treadmill of being a high taxpayer to make it work.

    Also, don't buy expensive stuff (and don't pay market rate even at that)...so that you can sell without exceeding a couple's combined annual CG allowance.

    The Governmen's can't knock too many buy-to-let investors out of the market (half have gone already since 2016 tax changes)...they might be needing them to effectively do the job the Government used to do until the 80's.
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2020
  8. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Unlike 2008, the Fed etc has fired all their ammunition already. Cut interest rates and massive money printing...yet the Dow can still dump 7% in a day just like back in March before any stimulus.

    That's why it's different this time...it took ages in 2008 to get to the stimulus stage we're at now yet the market is still easily spooked. The 2008 market crash actually started in 2007 buy many forget that.
  9. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    My worry is that the environment will become even more hostile. Let’s face it, barriers to entry are pretty high these days, you need cash behind you and be prepared not to see a return for years potentially. Yet you are public enemy number 1 to many.
  10. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    If the tenants aren't paying the rent themselves then the Government will be.

    I've concentrated on commercial office Property previously as that's about facilitating job creation etc. I've employed young people to. But if central banks want to throw my cash under a bus I'll come out fighting.

    They've created an incredibly volatile stock market IMO so money will.end up in property by default. I'm not the only one coming to this conclusion.
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2020
  11. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    I’ve got mates in commercial property, city office stuff. They’re very concerned.
    I was talking to Savills in a nice part of the south east, who said demand has gone nuts since lockdown eased, both rentals and sales. Mainly people wanting to move out of London to decent environments who might go into the smoke once or twice a week.

    I’ve always taken a balanced approach between property and the markets. I think it’s good to have both over the long run.
  12. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, all my stuff is smaller so can be sectioned off to be anything from 1-2 person office to say max. 8 people on one floor (the classic Victorian/Georgian 3 story jobs). That's where the future market is IMO. We've had two vacancies occur the last 2 months but now there's another wave of inquiries from people either starting up themselves solo (working at home already doing their heads in) or there's companies looking at smaller satellite office out of town that their remote workers can use as a base. This working from home mantra doesn't work for most people as the industry will discover in 6 months when most bosses will want to keep an eye on their staff. We might have to adjust rents a bit but properties are mortgage free so it's all positive.

    Anyone holding massive 100 person floor plates should be nervous. Anyone buying retail the last 5 or so years needs their heads looked at as they mustn't obviously shop on Amazon etc..
  13. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    That’s the key, you can weather pretty much anything in that position.

    Just chatting to a mate, he’s going to wind his business up and retire. His main reason was hassle with staff, this whole C19 thing has been the catalyst. That’s about 10 jobs going. I can see many doing that if it’s an option. I think we might join them, effectively retire and spend our time on road trips (once we’re allowed!).
  14. clivem2

    clivem2 pfm Member

    Yeah, the inability to travel is what's keeping me working. I might as well keep earning money if I can't go anywhere overnight.
  15. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yeah, I took a big step back at 50....probably too early but I just wanted to jump off the treadmill. I've just tooled up my garage to work on my car...saves me money and I enjoy it. Didn't have time a year ago.

    I watched my staff go from begging for a job in 2009 (like I did when I graduated in 1992) to thinking they were doing you a favour working for me in 2018. Came to a head when one lad wouldn't travel overnight 3 hours away for work because his wife was having a baby IN SEVEN WEEKS time...

    Was chatting to the new owner and he said he's having trouble getting one lad off furlough. The employee had a baby a year ago and said Furlough is a once a lifetime opportunity for HIM to spend time with his son. That might be right but he's actually needed back at work too! His card is now well and truly marked. Furlough is driving wedges between employers and some employees.
  16. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Markets trying their hardest to fob off the latest falls as just a 'blip'.

    Maybe it is, maybe it isn't...
  17. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    It's hard to imagine that the markets will continue to shrug off rising COVID cases in almost half of US states, which will almost inevitably lead to either a huge new wave of deaths or more lockdowns.

    China must be looking at the US/UK with glee. Societies torn apart by political polarization, with the right wing deliberately ignoring scientific advise regarding masks and distancing, but getting ever more mad that the virus doesn't play by their rules.
    ff1d1l and Snufkin like this.
  18. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    It's all in then name of Capitalism and the Free Market...hang on!

    “There is nothing like a fresh round of stimulus to boost risk sentiment in the markets,” said Fiona Cincotta, market analyst at Gain Capital. “Fears of a second wave have been calmed by the fact that the Fed has your back and that Trump is prepared to increase spending significantly to inject life back into the economy.”

    I'm sticking with my opinion that inflation will be high within 3 years...and governments will have to let it go high to inflate out of this mess (also raising interest rates would be political suicide). The 2% target will be out the window.
    I'm heading for more bricks and mortar as everything else is messed up.

    Rolls Royce has weathered this latest blip which was a good test IMO.
    sean99 likes this.
  19. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    VIX (Volatility Index) has been edging back up a bit lately...
  20. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    Some of my funds (funds, not shares) were up 5% yesterday. That is a bit extreme! Market has gone crazy but is a hell of a ride!

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