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Stock Market 2020

Discussion in 'off topic' started by andyoz, Feb 26, 2020.

  1. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    There are some pretty big swings around. The markets don’t currently seem too worried about this mini outbreak in China. I get the feeling that moving forward, we’re just going to have to live with and adapt to this thing and the world will keep turning.
  2. robs

    robs pfm Member

    Gold just hit highest price since 2012.

    World might just pause a little :oops:
  3. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    High gold price means that the market knows that governments are printing money
  4. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    ^^ I still think we’re in for a big bout of inflation.

    In the areas I monitor, I’ve noticed residential properties coming onto the market are at complete joke pricing. Will be interesting to see if they sell!
  5. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    Just Googled a chart of the FTSE 100 - around 7000 in 2000, around 6200 in 2020. This compares poorly with the S&P 500, for example. Why is the FTSE is stuck?
  6. JensenHealey

    JensenHealey pfm Member

    Maybe it is (slightly) 'more' realistic?
    Rana likes this.
  7. Rana

    Rana pfm Member

    The disparity is less stark if you factor in dividend reinvestment between the two indices.
  8. Rana

    Rana pfm Member

    Nevertheless it is still stark.
  9. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    The B word.
  10. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    Indeed, it can explain some of the disparity but still...the FTSE 100 has underperformed. Maybe it has something to do with worsening productivity.
  11. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    The Bullingdon Club? :). Brexit can explain recent variations in performance but not the historical trend which is essentially flat.
  12. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    2002 Internet stocks burst. 2008 Financial Crisis. 2016 Brexit vote. 2020 Covid.
  13. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Worth taking the time to listen to this guy. China reacted so strongly to that recent Beijing market outbreak because those that have recovered from the 'middle' strain are not necessarily immune to the 'lastest' strain. Food for though.

  14. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Also, Trumps got it covered. Nothing to see here...

  15. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Why I've been going on about Gold, Silver and the miners (GDX) for months.

    You might not get rich on it but I think there are less volatile gains in the short to medium term.
  16. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    S&P 500 had to endure those events as well.
  17. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    Better source here (not from a permabear):

    "Encouragingly, the duo found that immune factors from the serum of infected people work equally well against engineered viruses both with and without the D614G mutation. That’s a hopeful sign that vaccine candidates in development will work against variants with or without that mutation, Choe says."

    So the D614G mutation appears to make COVID-19 more infectious, but there is no evidence that it results in higher mortality, and there is evidence that immunity to non-D614G protects against D614G.
  18. Rana

    Rana pfm Member

    (i) Lower dividends in the S&P500 and that money being used to invest in further internal S&P growth,
    (ii) US technology multinationals (e.g the FAANG type companies) huge growth makes up a significant part of S&P performance - we don't have any companies of that scale
    (iii) 4 years of Brexit uncertainties
    (iv) Multi-billions of Fed money printing (QE) effectively being used to buy back shares

    My take on this anyway. Apart from the strong FAANG-types, a US correction is long overdue, but the Fed just keeps on printing.....
    Kirk likes this.
  19. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yeah, that guy is a bit of a bear.

    It's tricky to know what to believe ATM
  20. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    It is - the only country with extensive experience of the original COVID-19 strain is China and I don't believe their statistics at all. It could be a combination of D614G mutation's greater infectiousness, and possibly greater mortality, combined with China not being entirely truthful with their COVID statistics that make the European / North American outbreaks seem so much more deadly.

    The rising cases in the post-lockdown states in the US tell me that the economy is in a real pickle until an vaccine is available.

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