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Scottish Politics II

Amber Audio said:
Google is your pal

In February 2012, Spanish foreign minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo made this categorical denial of the veto myth: "If the two parts of the United Kingdom are in agreement that it is in accord with their constitutional arrangement, written or unwritten, Spain would have nothing to say. We would simply maintain that it does not affect us."
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The crucial part is in bold - given that the Tories are highly unlikely to ever sanction a referendum, the very real likelihood of a unilateral Scottish move to independence would put them squarely at odds with Spain's stated position (given that this is exactly the position they are actively working to avoid in relation to Basque/Catalonian seperatism)
The Spanish gov also repeated the possibility of a veto more recently - I doubt their position will have changed much in the meantime:

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-could-veto-independent-scotland-says-minister/

Worth noting that the French also have a dog in that particular race ....

So the assumption that Scotland's entry to the EU would be a walk in the park seems more than a little misplaced.
Particularly relevant given that this seems to be one of the key arguments bolstering the pro-independence movement since Brexit.
 
No one in Scotland believes this will go without blocking attempts. The more fundamental question is how long and how vigorously can a British government hold out in the face of a democratic deficit? By that I mean a Scottish electorate expressing their desire to at least be asked if they wish or not to remain in the U.K. The fact that they have now returned for the forth time, a Scottish govt who’s principal election commitment is to hold such a referendum.
 
miktec said:
Worth noting that the French also have a dog in that particular race ....

So the assumption that Scotland's entry to the EU would be a walk in the park seems more than a little misplaced.
Particularly relevant given that this seems to be one of the key arguments bolstering the pro-independence movement since Brexit.
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Yes, the French have a long history of warm relations with Scotland, and the difficult relations with Johnson's government won't have won too many hearts and minds in France. I have no doubt the French government would facilitate a Scottish bid to (re)join, if that is what the Scots decide they want to do. Small clue: just look at the size and location of their new "cultural centre" in Edinburgh.

The Spanish Foreign Minister also said in 2018 (post Brexit) that Spain would not stand in the way of a Scottish bid to join the EU after a legal secession process from the UK.
 
PsB said:
Yes, the French have a long history of warm relations with Scotland,
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Ah yes - 'le kilt'
Would have though the French Fashionista would have got over that by now - mind you, Jean-Paul did have his moments :D

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.. although not really the 'dog in that race' i was referring to.


The Basque Country extends well into France and I doubt they will want to stoke that particular sleeping dog in the event of a Scottish independence declaration not fully endorsed by the Tories .....

(i.e. never going to happen)
 
TheDecameron said:
No one in Scotland believes this will go without blocking attempts. The more fundamental question is how long and how vigorously can a British government hold out in the face of a democratic deficit? By that I mean a Scottish electorate expressing their desire to at least be asked if they wish or not to remain in the U.K. The fact that they have now returned for the forth time, a Scottish govt who’s principal election commitment is to hold such a referendum.
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And therein lies the rub ... the Tories know all they have to do is sit on their hands and say 'No' repeatedly and wait until it's clear to all that the SNP can't deliver a 'legal' outcome.

No opposition is likely to run with a gambit promising an Indy ref for Scotland (certainly not Starmer in any event - are there any other kids in town?)
 
An Indy ref could be a bargaining chip for the SNP in the event of a hung Parliament. The best thing for Labour to do in the meantime would be to counter the Tory negativism and ignorance about Scotland with something more positive, so that independence is not seen as the be all and end all. But I fear that ship sailed long ago.
 
Joe Hutch said:
An Indy ref could be a bargaining chip for the SNP in the event of a hung Parliament. The best thing for Labour to do in the meantime would be to counter the Tory negativism and ignorance about Scotland with something more positive, so that independence is not seen as the be all and end all. But I fear that ship sailed long ago.
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Did you say hung parliament? Now there’s a thought. Is Starmer perfecting his Ian Paisley Never Never Nevurrrrr! in the mirror I wonder? Could be a wild card Tory Labour Stop The Nats coalition.
 
tonerei said:
Afaik the first Scottish independence referendum was a simple majority vote so I would be inclined to assume the next one will be the same.
I don't know if the way the law is set up in the UK that you can adjust the requirements for referendums. The problem for the Tories and Brexity folks is that if they run with that idea then a further referendum if that were to happen on remaining outside the EU would also require a super majority. Don't see the ERG risking that.

It's nice that you admit that the Brexit vote was a mistake of magnitude.

I note your irrelevant troll like 'whinging' remark for what it is.
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You haven’t been paying attention. I’ve said before ( a few times ) brexit is bad and I’ve have never said it is a good thing.

What is your interest in Scottish independence? We’re told regularly by one of the nationalists that what Scots want is nothing to do with people who are not Scottish or live in Scotland.

By the same token, what is your interest in brexit?
 
Joe Hutch said:
An Indy ref could be a bargaining chip for the SNP in the event of a hung Parliament. The best thing for Labour to do in the meantime would be to counter the Tory negativism and ignorance about Scotland with something more positive, so that independence is not seen as the be all and end all. But I fear that ship sailed long ago.
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It can only be a bargaining chip if the nationalists do not demand a referendum at least until a 2nd Labour term in govt, so 2030, or so. Is that what you mean?

As I’ve said before, a Labour/nationalist coalition in 2024 following quickly by a referendum would force another UK GE if the current minority in favour of independence is miraculously turned into a majority. Why would Labour agree to that?
 
Somafunk said:
Liz Truss is the best independence sleeper agent we could possibly wish for
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Have you considered that it could all be bluster from Truss to win party votes to get into No10? Independence could suit her and the conservative party quite well. If the SNP lost, that could also suit Truss quite well. I don’t see a downside to a ref.
 
Ponty said:
If it enabled them to stay in power I wouldn’t have thought they’d care too much!
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Of course not - and when the Scots do successfully apply for EU membership, the perfectly capable Tory politicians can sort out the land border issues to everyone's immense satisfaction

- just like they have with NI :confused::D
 
" We’re told regularly by one of the nationalists that what Scots want is nothing to do with people who are not Scottish or live in Scotland"

Is there any evidence of this? I have never encountered it.
 
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