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Oh Britain, what have you done (part XXIII)?

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The EU always sticks to its rules and processes, except until they don't suit the EU, when it just gets on and ignores them



The UK has always done pretty well this way. It might be called flexibility and imagination, adapting to situations as they arise. It is also the basis for Common Law, and our unwritten constitution.



I don't believe for one second that Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin come anywhere close to London in terms of either depth or breadth of capacity, infrastructure or human resources.
Oh god, not belief again.
 
Please don't. Last thing we need is more deep and lengthy bamboozle. Cheers and Happy Xmas.

The report came from the European Parliament, "Implications of Brexit on EU Financial Services" dated June 2017.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/602058/IPOL_STU(2017)602058_EN.pdf

In the report, table 8 on page 41 shows that that in 2014 (and which may have changed a bit since then), the UK was a net 'exporter' of financial services to the EEA (£23Bn vs £4Bn) which is nearly a 6 times difference between the two. However, that's about as good as it gets because if you go to page 43, it then states that:

It is probable that, after Brexit, much of the OTC trading will migrate to the location of a central counterparty...

Which, if my understanding of EUphemisms is correct, means that they expect a lot of trading to bugger off to Europe post Brexit.
 
Possibly not but it echoes the point you made re balance of trading.

I didn't make a point regarding balance of trading. I made one regarding balance of passporting.

That apart, it seems odd that a trade surplus with the EU on anything is seen in a negative light. Hail PFM.
 
I didn't make a point regarding balance of trading. I made one regarding balance of passporting.

Apologies. I didn't read that part of the report:

A closer look at passporting reveals further interdependencies: In 2016, 8,008 firms established in the EEA made use of 23,535 passports to provide financial services on the territory of the UK and 5,476 firms established in the UK made use of 336,421 passports. These Implications of Brexit on EU Financial Services PE 602.058 11 numbers show the particular importance that passporting has for the UK financial services industry.

Which suggests that the UK has a much higher dependency on passporting than the other EU nations together.

However, I may have misinterpreted things.

That apart, it seems odd that a trade surplus with the EU on anything is seen in a negative light. Hail PFM.

A current surplus is always a good thing but given many banks are looking to move, to assume it will stay the same post-brexit is, at best, naively optimistic.
 
I didn't make a point regarding balance of trading. I made one regarding balance of passporting.

That apart, it seems odd that a trade surplus with the EU on anything is seen in a negative light. Hail PFM.

Oh god, not belief again.

Ya gotta have faith, when all these trade agreements are rattled off by Fox it's sunny uplands all the way. OK so we've handed all the 'third' countries a chance to screw 60m for better terms than they could get from 500m but that's just detail. :)

Oh and don't forget that 'special' deal with the orange sex offender who just happens to be rather fond of protectionism.

But hey, our recently recruited army of negotiators will bring home the bacon, it may be more expensive and less well regulated bacon, but stick on the Brexit brown source and it will be yummy.

ET, will you be safely retired before we arrive at the land of milk and honey? BTW "exploding clown's car" covers it so neatly, I think it will be around for a while. Merry Christmas to you and yours.
 
The sectoral analyses have been published.

They are apparently mostly empty padding.

Even school-level stuff. Talks about fishing being concentrated in coastal towns. Says stuff like: "Electricity is a fundamental part of modern society. Residential and industrial users rely on its use to ensure basic and vital needs such as lighting, heating or refrigeration are met on a daily basis" http://www.parliament.uk/documents/...yses/12-Electricity-and-Renewables-Report.pdf
 
Yes I also noticed they copied a SMMT table which shows Honda produces civic, cr-v and jazz in UK. I think when making a copy paste high quality report in july 2017 for Brexit 2019 it should only mention civic ?
 
Good thread here (see the replies) where the considered opinion of them is 'nothing to see here, move along'. https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/943841713004728320

It's all remarkably basic information. Nothing that wasn't already known.

In previous political ages, I imagine this growing scandal over the lack of preparation for Brexit would have brought down the government by now. In today's political age, it will be forgotten tomorrow. Or else David Davis will assure us that all reports were thoroughly excellent and took years to write.
 
Which, if my understanding of EUphemisms is correct, means that they expect a lot of trading to bugger off to Europe post Brexit.

It is already happening. The more I think about it the more I become convinced this will be the real root of the Brexit catastrophe. The financial services industry is good for 71 £bn tax revenue, which is 11.5% of the UK’s total tax take (Reuters). Now try modelling a future where a substantial proportion of that, lets just say 40-50% to be conservative, needs to relocate to avoid inevitable EU tariffs etc, and then factor in the extra dole payments for those currently working in EU-facing industry (automotive etc) that will almost certainly do the same for the same reasons and try and then picture what Tory ‘austerity’ will look like in a few years time! It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the actions of this Conservative government don’t end up properly bankrupting the UK.
 
The automotive sector, with that complex, time sensitive, back and forth supply chain with the EU will be killed by what half the Tories are calling for. We are getting either magical thinking, wishful thinking or no thinking from this lot. I'm beginning to believe EV should have a seat in Cabinet.
 
The automotive sector, with that complex, time sensitive, back and forth supply chain with the EU will be killed by what half the Tories are calling for. We are getting either magical thinking, wishful thinking or no thinking from this lot. I'm beginning to believe EV should have a seat in Cabinet.

Indeed. It isn’t just the big names (Honda, Nissan, BMW etc) that will suffer, but all the little support industries etc. It staggers me that JCB were pro-Tory Brexit, though I guess they are a rather different thing to the global companies such as those I mention who I’d expect to relocate to the newer EU states (the ones Farage hates so much). They won’t go overnight, it will just be a case of new tooling for new models appearing at new plants in Poland, Bulgaria etc and corresponding numbers here being made redundant until the plant is entirely obsolete and closes its doors completely in several years time. Tory Brexit will be a slow lingering death.
 
The automotive sector, with that complex, time sensitive, back and forth supply chain with the EU will be killed by what half the Tories are calling for. We are getting either magical thinking, wishful thinking or no thinking from this lot. I'm beginning to believe EV should have a seat in Cabinet.

Thank you. Though I don't recall mentioning the automotive industry.
 
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