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Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+4)?

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eternumviti said:
Perhaps you'll point out the relevant passages, because I can't see them. The piece is here to save you going back a page.

Why should Romania not be doing well in GDP growth terms in the EU? It has had vast sums of taxpayer's dosh lavished upon it to haul its infrastructure up, and it is coming from a very low base.
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Well, it is a teeny-weeny bit Brexity...
"According to co-director, Estera Amesz, the numbers of people wanting to work in Britain fell sharply after Brexit. A key issue was the fall in the value of the pound. She says it is also down to the uncertainty; people aren't sure what documents they now need."
Also one of the farmers I mentioned told me that the pickers purchasing ability was reduced by the higher prices here since your beloved Brexit referendum, a fact that can not be denied.
 
notaclue said:
The future where Prime Minister Gove presides over the collapse of the United Kingdom is coming true...
Increasing chatter that Theresa May will fall.
Michael Gove has a good shot. His coalition of support stretches from Remainer Nicky Morgan to the Brexiteers. Tory MPs think he has the direction and energy May lacks.
One hiccup: electorally speaking, he's a cup of cold sick."

We also had https://www.theguardian.com/politic...or-says-brexit-uk-news?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Bearing this in mind, I would recommend being in your bunker by mid-February at the latest.
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Brexit is the problem, not who the PM is. The lies and fantasy during the campaign - hardly a mention of the Irish border, Gibraltar and other incompatible problems. To that we can add a US President who is not interested in free trade deals except on his America First terms.

The Brexiteers should have the moral courage to admit that to proceed would be a disaster; and that would be true no matter who was PM.

But of course, it will be everyone else's fault. May will be called a Remainer, even though she only wore that cloak to appease a PM should thought would win a vote. She is no more a Remainer than Corbyn is. She has spent her entire premiership kicking the Brexit can down the road because the minute she gets off the fence - the Tory party splits.

If she had some spine she would realise that standing up would lose the Tories some of it's worst support and that would be replaced in time. Indeed a strong about turn on this shambles might gain them some.
 
EV - it is true Sterling has been low against the Euro 5 years ago, and net EU migration (90,000) has fallen to levels last seen 5 years ago (when GBP was still recovering from the 2008 crash)

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics/

What is striking about the statistics from this web site is how net migration from the EU8 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) fell off a cliff in 2016. It's pretty much only the EU2 (Bulgaria and Romania) who are still coming to the UK. So much for the UK being an attractive place to come live and work.

Take a look at the sterling charts here and you'll see that Brexit caused a protracted slump in Sterling starting around December 2015 when the possibility of a Brexit win first started to appear to be a real risk.

https://www.exfinuk.com/historical-forex-gbp
 
It won't be the end of the world if millions of strawberries rot in the fields because of a shortage of European workers. Different ball game in the NHS. 40,000 nurses short and Europeans no longer interested.
 
Brexit is the problem, not who the PM is.

Did I just read that?

I'm 62. Mad Mrs May is the worst PM I've seen in my lifetime. By a long, long way.

Wasn't it May who did the deal with the DUP?

She's incompetent beyond words.

A good PM would have made a difference
 
I don't like May one little bit, but to be fair May has inherited a poisoned political party and a country more divided than I can remember. I think it would be impossible to be an effective leader in the circumstances. At least she has held the far right somewhat at bay.
 
HarryB said:
Brexit is the problem, not who the PM is.

Did I just read that?

I'm 62. Mad Mrs May is the worst PM I've seen in my lifetime. By a long, long way.

Wasn't it May who did the deal with the DUP?

She's incompetent beyond words.

A good PM would have made a difference
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It took some doing to outdo Cameron in the worst PM stakes but May has won that contest hands down.
Sadly, she is still probably a better PM than Gove or Bleoboris would be.
 
HarryB said:
Brexit is the problem, not who the PM is.

Did I just read that?

I'm 62. Mad Mrs May is the worst PM I've seen in my lifetime. By a long, long way.

Wasn't it May who did the deal with the DUP?

She's incompetent beyond words.

A good PM would have made a difference
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Strange post, you call her incompetent then cite her only achievement. LOL (not saying it's desirable for anyone but the Tories, but it's the only thing she has actually 'done').

The point about Brexit is all candidates including Corbyn are paralysed by it. Unless someone grows a pair and faces up to the electorate and gives them the real consequences and a chance to reverse this nonsense, it won't matter.
 
Steve. I fail to see how bribing a bunch of bowler hat-wearing, bible bashing bigots can be described as an achievement in any shape or form but there you go.

Had I listed her failings we'd be here all night.

Here's one. She has had several chances to sack Boris. She hasn't. She's incompetent, gutless and to make things worse she has zero personality. A pathetic wretch of a woman. HTF she ever became PM is beyond me.
 
SteveS1 said:
Strange post, you call her incompetent then cite her only achievement. LOL (not saying it's desirable for anyone but the Tories, but it's the only thing she has actually 'done').

The point about Brexit is all candidates including Corbyn are paralysed by it. Unless someone grows a pair and faces up to the electorate and gives them the real consequences and a chance to reverse this nonsense, it won't matter.
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Cue the LibDems? Cable doesn't seem to get much coverage, does he?
 
It could have been all so different if the Lib Dems had shown some honesty and integrity.

Sadly, jumping into bed with the scummy Tories and doing a U turn on tuition fees has all but destroyed them.

I reckon it will take at least two GEs for the LibDems to get back to being any kind of political force.
 
eternumviti said:
Glib response, and meaningless in the context. As I pointed out, Sterling is no lower than it was 6 or 7 years ago, when there was plenty of immigrant and seasonal labour available, and when it wasn't unknown for farmers and/or gangmasters (usually of the same nationality as the workers) to house them in dirty and unheated intensive chicken houses. The facts are that it is now more attractive for the seasonal workers to work closer to home, where the economies are in a far better state than they were a few years ago and wages are becoming competitive.
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You're cherry picking stats. Your 6-7 years just happen to be after the 2008 financial crisis hit sterling and before Grexit etc. depressed the euro for a few years.

Before the 2008 financial crisis, sterling routinely traded between €1.30 and €1.60 (just eyeballing the chart since the official introduction of the euro, I'd say the average was 1.45. Same versus the ECU before that). http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exch...MM2=05&YYYY2=2018&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0&MM1Y=0
The 2008 financial crisis hit the UK much harder than the eurozone, because of the dreadful problems at some British banks and because of the perception that the City etc. is a key part of the UK's economic activity. So sterling dropped hard to its historic low of €1.02, before gradually recovering to 1.40 again by 2015, helped by economic recovery in the UK and by the euro's troubles in Greece and elsewhere. Brexit created an immediate drop from 1.40 to 1.15, and it hasn't recovered since, trading in a tight band between 1.08 and 1.20 for almost 2 years: up a little when a soft, orderly Brexit seems more likely, down when hard Brexit seems a possible outcome.

You're right that economic growth in East Europe and amazingly low unemployment is shifting some perceptions. A Romanian that speaks reasonable English has a permanent selection of jobs to chose from, at ever increasing salaries (+10% per year on average). But the fact that British salaries as perceived in E. Europe dropped 20% almost overnight means ambitious Poles/Romanians who want to get ahead in life no longer think as much of building long term careers in Britain. Germany and other countries are closer, pay better, and the option of staying home is becoming more attractive.
 
PsB said:
You're cherry picking stats. Your 6-7 years just happen to be after the 2008 financial crisis hit sterling and before Grexit etc. depressed the euro for a few years.

Before the 2008 financial crisis, sterling routinely traded between €1.30 and €1.60 (just eyeballing the chart since the official introduction of the euro, I'd say the average was 1.45. Same versus the ECU before that). http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exch...MM2=05&YYYY2=2018&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0&MM1Y=0
The 2008 financial crisis hit the UK much harder than the eurozone, because of the dreadful problems at some British banks and because of the perception that the City etc. is a key part of the UK's economic activity. So sterling dropped hard to its historic low of €1.02, before gradually recovering to 1.40 again by 2015, helped by economic recovery in the UK and by the euro's troubles in Greece and elsewhere. Brexit created an immediate drop from 1.40 to 1.15, and it hasn't recovered since, trading in a tight band between 1.08 and 1.20 for almost 2 years: up a little when a soft, orderly Brexit seems more likely, down when hard Brexit seems a possible outcome.

You're right that economic growth in East Europe and amazingly low unemployment is shifting some perceptions. A Romanian that speaks reasonable English has a permanent selection of jobs to chose from, at ever increasing salaries (+10% per year on average). But the fact that British salaries as perceived in E. Europe dropped 20% almost overnight means ambitious Poles/Romanians who want to get ahead in life no longer think as much of building long term careers in Britain. Germany and other countries are closer, pay better, and the option of staying home is becoming more attractive.
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Yes, but my point was that even when sterling was on the floor, the seasonal workers still came. As you rightly say, wages for this kind of work are now rapidly rising in eastern Europe - though not, it would appear from the article, in Romania itself, as fruit growers there are also suffering a labour shortage - and the seasonal workers can now get the work that they want for reasonable wages elsewhere. Regarding your final sentence, we were discussing seasonal rather then long-term workers, but yes, it is currently attractive for people to work in other countrie for reasons quite apart from Brexit.

My original point stands, and what you have written confirms it further - it is wrong to lay the blanket blame for a shortage of seasonal workers on Brexit, which anyway hasn't even happened yet, if it ever will. Even factoring in the fall in sterling, there are plenty of other good reasons why people are going elsewhere at the moment. These things are, as always, complex, and don't as easily slot into our various prejudices as we might conveniently like them to.
 
HarryB said:
Steve. I fail to see how bribing a bunch of bowler hat-wearing, bible bashing bigots can be described as an achievement in any shape or form but there you go.

Had I listed her failings we'd be here all night.

Here's one. She has had several chances to sack Boris. She hasn't. She's incompetent, gutless and to make things worse she has zero personality. A pathetic wretch of a woman. HTF she ever became PM is beyond me.
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To be fair the only rival in the Tory party left standing in the contest was Leadsom. Who would have managed, somehow, to be worse.
 
sean99 said:
EV - it is true Sterling has been low against the Euro 5 years ago, and net EU migration (90,000) has fallen to levels last seen 5 years ago (when GBP was still recovering from the 2008 crash)

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics/

What is striking about the statistics from this web site is how net migration from the EU8 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) fell off a cliff in 2016. It's pretty much only the EU2 (Bulgaria and Romania) who are still coming to the UK. So much for the UK being an attractive place to come live and work.

Take a look at the sterling charts here and you'll see that Brexit caused a protracted slump in Sterling starting around December 2015 when the possibility of a Brexit win first started to appear to be a real risk.

https://www.exfinuk.com/historical-forex-gbp
Click to expand...

Again, after some years of low growth the economic cycle started to favour the EU countries from mid 2016, so it was becoming more attractive and easier for people to stay at home and find well-paid work. I think that the fall in sterling started in December 2015 had more to do with the fact that the markets already considered it to be overvalued than in any anticipation of a Brexit vote prevailing in June.
 
eternumviti said:
Yes, but my point was that even when sterling was on the floor, the seasonal workers still came. As you rightly say, wages for this kind of work are now rapidly rising in eastern Europe - though not, it would appear from the article, in Romania itself, as fruit growers there are also suffering a labour shortage - and the seasonal workers can now get the work that they want for reasonable wages elsewhere. Regarding your final sentence, we were discussing seasonal rather then long-term workers, but yes, it is currently attractive for people to work in other countrie for reasons quite apart from Brexit.

My original point stands, and what you have written confirms it further - it is wrong to lay the blanket blame for a shortage of seasonal workers on Brexit, which anyway hasn't even happened yet, if it ever will. Even factoring in the fall in sterling, there are plenty of other good reasons why people are going elsewhere at the moment. These things are, as always, complex, and don't as easily slot into our various prejudices as we might conveniently like them to.
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ET, it's all coming apart. Let it go. :)
 
eternumviti said:
Yes, but my point was that even when sterling was on the floor, the seasonal workers still came. As you rightly say, wages for this kind of work are now rapidly rising in eastern Europe - though not, it would appear from the article, in Romania itself, as fruit growers there are also suffering a labour shortage - and the seasonal workers can now get the work that they want for reasonable wages elsewhere. Regarding your final sentence, we were discussing seasonal rather then long-term workers, but yes, it is currently attractive for people to work in other countrie for reasons quite apart from Brexit.

My original point stands, and what you have written confirms it further - it is wrong to lay the blanket blame for a shortage of seasonal workers on Brexit, which anyway hasn't even happened yet, if it ever will. Even factoring in the fall in sterling, there are plenty of other good reasons why people are going elsewhere at the moment. These things are, as always, complex, and don't as easily slot into our various prejudices as we might conveniently like them to.
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They came, but in reduced numbers. After years of steady increase until 2007, the EU net migration number dropped by roughly 50% in 2008/2009. Not a trivial drop.
 
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