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Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+4)?

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PsB said:
They came, but in reduced numbers. After years of steady increase until 2007, the EU net migration number dropped by roughly 50% in 2008/2009. Not a trivial drop.
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With respect, what the hell has 2008/2009 got to do with Brexit?
 
ET, consider the genus Anas, the unique perambulatory characteristics they exhibit, and the use of such as pointers to unambiguous attribution.
 
Peston says:
Theresa May’s style of cabinet government, according to a number of her ministers, is to allow full and frank discussion of contentious issues by senior ministers, and then get her cabinet secretary Jeremy Heywood to produce minutes that reflect the outcome she and he desire, rather than what was actually said.

There is more than a touch of the latter days of the Stalin politburo about her approach, according to one.

But in the note sent to members of her Brexit subcommittee, about what they supposedly agreed on a “backstop” plan to effectively keep the UK following customs-union and single-market rules to make sure the Ireland border stays open, pending assent from the EU on a different technical solution, she seems to have over-reached.

Because for the Brexiter members of the cabinet - especially Davis and Johnson - there is no doubt that the backstop is a Trojan Horse, a sinister device to deliver the kind of soft Brexit they see as worse than no Brexit - because the UK would stay under the sway of EU rules, with no chance to influence them.

The Brexiters would probably swallow the plan if the backstop contained an unambiguous sunset clause, a precise date for the UK to bust free of the customs union and rule-taking from Brussels.

But the sunset clause as drafted simply says the backstop falls away when other arrangements are ready - and Brexiters inevitably fear that would be never.

They have called May’s bluff. And so far they have blocked the plan being sent to Brussels, as was supposed to happen.

But if they kill the backstop, they risk blowing up any chance of progress on negotiations on the UK’s future commercial and security relationship without the EU - because the rest of the EU has ties such talks to backstop progress.

So in fighting for a purer Brexit they heighten the risk of a bad Brexit or - heaven forfend - no Brexit. What a mess.
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Surely the breaking point is nigh and something must give.
 
eternumviti said:
I think that the fall in sterling started in December 2015 had more to do with the fact that the markets already considered it to be overvalued than in any anticipation of a Brexit vote prevailing in June.
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Wrong. Take a look at the date of the article (Feb 22 2016). The markets were pricing in the probability of a brexit from around December of 2015 onward.

https://www.ft.com/content/d9575016-a2ab-3d16-b908-6fb2f78323d9

"Traders are biting into their nail beds at this point. Right now, six-month implied volatility on sterling, a measure of expected volatility in the currency that reflects how much it costs to hedge against large moves, is surging. Remember: that six-month period easily encompasses the date of the referendum itself, as it’s scheduled for June. The rate now stands at a more than two-year high of 12 per cent. This means the market is bracing for a bigger shake-out than around the time of the most recent general election or the Scottish independence referendum.
The prevailing guesstimate on how heavy the blow to sterling could be from a vote to leave is in the region of 15 to 20 per cent."

Sterling had already fallen from $1.65 in 2014 to $1.50 in 2015 - this was sterling losing its 10% overvaluation. As soon as traders scented a possibility of Brexit (December 2015) sterling dropped to the low $1.40s.

On the night before the vote when it seemed remain would win Sterling rallied back to $1.50. As the results came in Sterling crashed to $1.32.

1467026164_gbp.png


But, no, nothing at all to do with Brexit - just like the lack of NHS and seasonal workers. Nothing at all to do with the catastrophic shambles of Brexit.
 
kendo said:
Those sunlit uplands, with a large party of Brexiteers lost on the approaches, are covered in an impenetrable fog on a dark night and the mountain rescue team are stuck in a Cabinet looking at the wrong maps and squabbling about a timetable to reach them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44391539

If Carlsberg did incompetence it wouldn't get close to these f**kwits.
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You can sense the political and economic crisis approaching, far bigger than 2016. The eight legged bastard is about to be born.
 
wyjsar said:
To be fair the only rival in the Tory party left standing in the contest was Leadsom. Who would have managed, somehow, to be worse.
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Well, there is that :)

It shows what a dire state the Tory party is in. I'm seriously considering an increase in my bet on Labour winning the next election. It's like buying money. The Tories will crumble before our eyes in the coming weeks I think. Serves themselves right for putting Arlene Foster in charge ;-)
 
HarryB said:
It shows what a dire state the Tory party is in. I'm seriously considering an increase in my bet on Labour winning the next election. It's like buying money. The Tories will crumble before our eyes in the coming weeks I think. Serves themselves right for putting Arlene Foster in charge ;-)
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I still doubt they will. I think Corbyn is inelectable, and the press will ensure another conservative victory. Quite apart from anything else, the Cons need to own the disaster that is Brexit. They made this bed, they can lie in it. If it happens, whoever is in charge will be tainted for the next 4 election terms.
 
HarryB said:
Well, there is that :)

It shows what a dire state the Tory party is in. I'm seriously considering an increase in my bet on Labour winning the next election. It's like buying money. The Tories will crumble before our eyes in the coming weeks I think. Serves themselves right for putting Arlene Foster in charge ;-)
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Hard Brexit and the Orange Wumun will get her hard line Statelet back, safely back behind its wall -while she and the other Loyalists enjoy the freedoms granted by their shiny new Republic of Ireland passports.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...-can-advises-dup-mp-ian-paisley-34835231.html
It would be hilarious were it not such breathtaking hypocrisy.
 
Konteebos said:
David Davis to leave cabinet, fully expecting to keep all benefits of cabinet membership.
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He retains his handsom ministerial pension. Not exactly payment by results-he’d have been sacked from any business for not doing the work (then lying about it). The fact that the Prime Minister cant sack him speaks volumes about her political weakness and the war inside her own party.
 
stevec67 said:
I still doubt they will. I think Corbyn is inelectable, and the press will ensure another conservative victory. Quite apart from anything else, the Cons need to own the disaster that is Brexit. They made this bed, they can lie in it. If it happens, whoever is in charge will be tainted for the next 4 election terms.
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Steve, you and others really don't get this press thing. "The press will ensure another Conservative victory".

No they won't. Every day that goes by the print media becomes less relevant. Sales of newspapers have been in free fall for more than a decade. Very few people under 40 buys or reads a newspaper. Hardly any under 30s read one.

This is the age group that will decide the election. It's why Momentum are so successful. They get their message across WITHOUT print media. Clever eh?
 
Is anyone else feeling a sense of Deja Vu?

November 2017: DD threatens to resign because he feels sidelined
December 2017: DD threatens to stand down over his buddy Damian Green
March 2018 DD: threatens to resign over fish
April 2018: DD David Davis ready to resign over EU customs partnership
 
HarryB said:
Steve, you and others really don't get this press thing. "The press will ensure another Conservative victory".

No they won't. Every day that goes by the print media becomes less relevant. Sales of newspapers have been in free fall for more than a decade. Very few people under 40 buys or reads a newspaper. Hardly any under 30s read one.

This is the age group that will decide the election. It's why Momentum are so successful. They get their message across WITHOUT print media. Clever eh?
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I include websites in "the press". The most viewed "newspaper" website is probably the Mail with its right hand side of titillating photos designed to keep us away from thinking about real news. Remind me what they are going to say come a GE. Remind me what happened at the last GE, it was only a year ago. Where were the young then, and what's changed since?
 
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