Labour Leader: Keir Starmer V

[sean99]

The EU is 10/10? Perfect? Beyond criticism?

Did I say that ? This is always the (strawman) defense of the Corbyn supporters.

If Remain was so important where was the cross party Remain campaign, where was the cross party counter the Leave campaign? The fact of the matter is that Remain was arrogant and directionless. It presumed it would win. Blaming Corbyn after the event is just guilt transference. Why wasn’t the Remain campaign shouting from the rooftops? Why did it just sit back and rely on a self confessed Eurosceptic?

We haven’t got Brexit because of Corbyn’s failings, we’ve got Brexit because Remain did not get it’s act together before the referendum and only acted with impotent rage and scapegoating after it.

Fair point about the Remain campaign, but Corbyn was THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION, and as such had an important role to play in the pre-referendum campaign, and post referendum implementation - a role that he completely failed to play.

Corbyn had an easy decision that he completely botched. It went something like this: EU = 7/10. Far right Brexit = 1/10. Better campaign for remain.

 

[Joe Hutch]

Of course had Corbyn’s support for Remain been more effective, and had the referendum produced a Remain outcome, Cameron would have stayed as PM, and may have won a second term in 2020.

 

[russel]

Of course had Corbyn’s support for Remain been more effective, and had the referendum produced a Remain outcome, Cameron would have stayed as PM, and may have won a second term in 2020.

Quite a few politicians thought remain would win but could better their careers by backing or at least not hostile to leave, Boris being the most glaring example and Corbyn possibly, although given he is a bit dim he may have just screwed up.

 

[sean99]

Of course had Corbyn’s support for Remain been more effective, and had the referendum produced a Remain outcome, Cameron would have stayed as PM, and may have won a second term in 2020.

Fair point, and I do remember some lexiters (even here on PFM) thinking that perhaps Brexit would lead to a resurgence of the left and a more equitable UK. It didn't really work out that way.

 

[droodzilla]

Did I say that ? This is always the (strawman) defense of the Corbyn supporters.



Fair point about the Remain campaign, but Corbyn was THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION, and as such had an important role to play in the pre-referendum campaign, and post referendum implementation - a role that he completely failed to play.

Corbyn had an easy decision that he completely botched. It went something like this: EU = 7/10. Far right Brexit = 1/10. Better campaign for remain.

Always worth posting the actual data whenever this comes up:

From here: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

I think achieving nearly a 2:1 pro-Remain ratio among Labour voters (some of whom, as has been noted, tend to be EU-sceptic) is pretty good. We can quibble over what that % should be, but the idea that Corbyn completely failed to the Labour/Remain vote does not stand up to scrutiny. Another myth that has become accepted fact through force of repetition.

The SNP numbers are surprising, given the strongly pro-EU line the party has taken since. As for the 4% of UKIP voters who are pro remain... who knows?

Labour made two key errors, in my view:

1. Voting to trigger A50, rather than pressing the government for a plan (for a soft Brexit).

2. Committing to a second referendum in 2019 (not that there was much choice, given the pressure they were under).

But really, there's plenty of blame to go round: Lib-Dems made the 2019 election inevitable, SNP abstained on the customs union option in the indicative votes, absurd tactical voting recommendations from the PV campaign and its self-destruction on the eve of the GE... the list goes on.

 

[droodzilla]

Anyway, no intention of relitigating the Brexit debate here - separate thread for that. This is far more interesting in my view:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...evelling-up-works-mayor-tees-valley-whitehall

Ben Houchen is the Tory mayor of Tees Valley and he's been doing quite a bit of levelling up since he took office. In May, he was re-elected with a thumping majority.

Some thoughts/questions...

Can this model (or similar) be replicated elsewhere?

If so, is it possible that Labour will be outflanked on the left by the Tories when it comes to public spending commitments at the next general election? For the first time in my life, it seems like that might be possible. Frankly, that's astonishing.

Against that, it's clear that this approach to spending and investment makes some hardcore Tories (neoliberal, Thatcherite types) uneasy - will it survive internal scrutiny within the party?

Ironically, Houchen's levelling up approach is probably more likely to gain traction if Boris Johnson remains PM. Johnson is (relatively) unideological and will probably be happy to surf a populist wave that demands greater investment in infrastructure and public service. Rishi Sunak, his most likely successor, is more likely to exercise fiscal restraint in my view.

Fascinating times politically... will the Tories shed their thatcherite skin and morph into a populist party of higher spending (+ authoritarian crackdowns, obviously)? If so, what will Labour do? What, indeed, is Labour even for in that scenario?

I despise the Tories but they have shown agility and flexibility in adapting to the new political mood, while the Labour Party seems fixated on the past (1997, specifically).

 

[mandryka]

Anyway, no intention of relitigating the Brexit debate here - separate thread for that. This is far more interesting in my view:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...evelling-up-works-mayor-tees-valley-whitehall

Ben Houchen is the Tory mayor of Tees Valley and he's been doing quite a bit of levelling up since he took office. In May, he was re-elected with a thumping majority.

Some thoughts/questions...

Can this model (or similar) be replicated elsewhere?

If so, is it possible that Labour will be outflanked on the left by the Tories when it comes to public spending commitments at the next general election? For the first time in my life, it seems like that might be possible. Frankly, that's astonishing.

Against that, it's clear that this approach to spending and investment makes some hardcore Tories (neoliberal, Thatcherite types) uneasy - will it survive internal scrutiny within the party?

Ironically, Houchen's levelling up approach is probably more likely to gain traction if Boris Johnson remains PM. Johnson is (relatively) unideological and will probably be happy to surf a populist wave that demands greater investment in infrastructure and public service. Rishi Sunak, his most likely successor, is more likely to exercise fiscal restraint in my view.

Fascinating times politically... will the Tories shed their thatcherite skin and morph into a populist party of higher spending (+ authoritarian crackdowns, obviously)? If so, what will Labour do? What, indeed, is Labour even for in that scenario?

I despise the Tories but they have shown agility and flexibility in adapting to the new political mood, while the Labour Party seems fixated on the past (1997, specifically).

Ben Houchen seems to be arguing that decentralisation, local politicians responding to local opportunities, is a central part of levelling up. I'm sure I've heard this idea before, in the Labour party.

 

[FrancisClement]

I am from the north of England. I go back regularly. I agree there are many like that.

So am I but I saw the effect of ultra left pressure and mis-use of union power. I have several friends who were union reps and they even saw this.

My wife is Polish and I know how she suffered 26 years of communism (her lifetime btw) and the associated corruption, threats and mis-use of party power.

I was also seconded to the European Commission and know that it needed and still needs a huge re-set. Why no one stopped the "Ever Closer" attitude really upsets me even now. If I remember correctly, the referendums in Europe to allow this was almost stopped by the Irish but they were forced to vote again but UK did not have a referendum as Blair saw a chance to be king of Europe if he did not allow it to go to a vote. OK Major set us on the path and that is unforgivable.

 

[ff1d1l]

Of course had Corbyn’s support for Remain been more effective, and had the referendum produced a Remain outcome, Cameron would have stayed as PM, and may have won a second term in 2020.

I think Corbyn would have hammered Cameron - aside from everything else, he would have not lost the thousands of young voters who walked or sank back again into apathy due to his completely ineffective brexit stance.

 

[Le Baron]

So am I but I saw the effect of ultra left pressure and mis-use of union power. I have several friends who were union reps and they even saw this.

I never saw that over years. I saw left and old-style centre reacting against Thatcherism.

My wife is Polish and I know how she suffered 26 years of communism (her lifetime btw) and the associated corruption, threats and mis-use of party power.

That's no doubt real, but Poland under the Kremlin's whip is not quite 20th century Britain.

 

[sean99]

That's no doubt real, but Poland under the Kremlin's whip is not quite 20th century Britain.

The right loves its "slippery slope" arguments. Over here in the US it's "If we provide universal healthcare we'll end up with gulags". Or "If we make assault rifles illegal then pretty soon the government will be rounding us up and shipping us to internment camps."

 

[Le Baron]

The right loves its "slippery slope" arguments. Over here in the US it's "If we provide universal healthcare we'll end up with gulags". Or "If we make assault rifles illegal then pretty soon the government will be rounding us up and shipping us to internment camps."

Back in 2007 I was in Kansas (Jefferson) eating at a friend's house and her brothers and mother said pretty much both of those! They also commiserated with me for having to live under socialism. I didn't want to cause a scene.

 

[ks.234]

So am I but I saw the effect of ultra left pressure and mis-use of union power. I have several friends who were union reps and they even saw this.

My wife is Polish and I know how she suffered 26 years of communism (her lifetime btw) and the associated corruption, threats and mis-use of party power.

I was also seconded to the European Commission and know that it needed and still needs a huge re-set. Why no one stopped the "Ever Closer" attitude really upsets me even now. If I remember correctly, the referendums in Europe to allow this was almost stopped by the Irish but they were forced to vote again but UK did not have a referendum as Blair saw a chance to be king of Europe if he did not allow it to go to a vote. OK Major set us on the path and that is unforgivable.

We’re rather closer to Fascism than Communism in this country. And as Fascism has a history of gaining power through democracy, it is moves towards populism that should be of much greater concern than revolutionary Communism

 

[Tony L]

We’re rather closer to Fascism than Communism in this country. And as Fascism has a history of gaining power through democracy, it is moves towards populism that should be of much greater concern.

It’s worth noting that Labour, even under Corbyn, were as far as I can tell to the right of Thatcher on a tax & spend basis. Top tax rates, VAT levels etc etc. Probably council house provision too. The UK has shifted way, way to the right in the past 40 years, and Labour have to take the blame for that just as much as Trump/Tea Party-clones like Johnson and his party.

 

[Le Baron]

It’s worth noting that Labour, even under Corbyn, were as far as I can tell to the right of Thatcher on a tax & spend basis.

¿Cómo? Thatcher's entire methodology - incoherent to the letter - was to try and reduce taxes as much as possible in order to NOT spend anything! Namely because she actually believed tax collection and this thing called 'market borrowing' was the source of government funding. Hence her idiotic, but famous statement: "The problem with socialism, is that you eventually run out of other people's money".

Now that one she lifted from the Friedman/Hayek school of quackanomics. Which is opposed to the concept of high tax levies (for creating fiscal space for a spending government). Corbyn/McDonnell's (under the influence of James Meadway) mistake was not breaking the 'fiscal rule' nonsense and blocking themselves in, otherwise they were as far away from the right-wing concept as any Labour government since 1982!

As it happens I had a short exchange with James Meadway on Twitter this morning. He made an elementary error with regard to the central bank, then tried to justify it, then deleted the tweet. These are the sorts of people they all consult.

 

[Tony L]

Thatcher's entire methodology - incoherent to the letter - was to try and reduce taxes as much as possible in order to NOT spend anything! Namely because she actually believed tax collection and this thing called 'market borrowing' was the source of government funding. Hence her idiotic, but famous statement: "The problem with socialism, is that you eventually run out of other people's money".

Conceptually yes, but it is only in the last two years of power that the top-rate came down to 40%. The rest of the time it was 60% (down from 83% under Labour back when they were actually left of centre Wikipedia). Both Conservative and Labour have invoked regressive NI and VAT rises, it’s only really the Lib Dems as a coalition partner that have achieved anything remotely progressive in UK taxation for a generation.

 

[Le Baron]

Lower taxes aren't necessarily progressive. Well they can be for people who aren't in a position to pay tax, but this is commonly down to poor earning/spending power. As they cut tax liabilities there they also do nothing at all to remove tax blockages where it would make most sense.

The problem with taxation is not that it is levied, but that it has a political dimension. It is set in one place and there is no account taken that it needs to be flexible according to the state of the economy. Instead it is sold by certain governments according to punitive/not punitive to the worker/capitalist in question. This is a mistake. Until the general public is wise to the fact that what they pay as tax is not for recycling into spending, this attitude will persist.

 

[Tony L]

Lower taxes aren't necessarily progressive. Well they can be for people who aren't in a position to pay tax, but this is commonly down to poor earning/spending power. As they cut tax liabilities there they also do nothing at all to remove tax blockages where it would make most sense.

I wasn’t saying they were! I mentioned the LDs as they forced the Tories to increase the threshold tax was paid at all which raised a lot of low income and self-employed out of taxation entirely. A move Labour had failed to achieve in three terms in power.

PS Newsnight are suggesting that Johnson, ever the popularist, is likely to raise the minimum/living wage in his speech tomorrow, thus ensuring Starmer remains The Nowhere Man for ever more.

 

[Le Baron]

Johnson said some strange things on the Today programme...er today. Strange for him anyway. For all his annoyingness he is perhaps one of the first to understand the government's currency power. When the presenter (bald fellow, glasses and had a throat operation...?) asked him 'who' was going to pay the increase in corporation tax, Johnson said, well the corporations obviously!
I could imagine his donors crossing him off their Christmas card lists.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

The key point to keep in mind about BloJo is that he has no interest in or clue about economics, etc. He simply says whatever he decides will make him 'popular' or 'liked'. Hence all the 'jokes', 'wit', etc.

He won't care about donors to the *party*, only about money *he* gets from anyone. Hence his reported comment about the 'boss' being the Editor of the Telegraph because they pay him more than his PM's salary. If he feels the Tories need him, he will simply use them as well. Tail wags dog. And if people want him to do something...