Has N. Korea pushed their luck too far now?

[Seeker_UK]

Additionally, and it's not a flippant question: who do we think poses the biggest threat to world stability & peace: North Korea or the USA?

Or from that article, China or Russia too.

 

[merlin]

It's rather like trying to stop the advance of cancer. You can try radiotherapy or chemotherapy which will result in the death of millions of cells. You have to catch it early enough though.

 

[DonQuixote99]

^^^ The greatest threat to world peace is our willingness to use metaphors like that for each other.

 

[merlin]

It's how a lot of Americans are thinking based on their media reporting - hence why I chose to use it.

We can debate the veracity of the WH and media claims all day but that's the message being sent out and it's just a question of whether it sticks enough with the voting public in America IMHO.

I think the analogy is valid.

 

[gassor]

^^^ The greatest threat to world peace is our willingness to use metaphors like that for each other.

If merlin almighty hath decreed that Americans are generally so thick they have become a cancer on civilisation then you young man are in no position to doubt it.

 

[notaclue]

They've just fired another one from Pyongyang...

 

[Yank]

Why can't we hack into the guidance system and make them return to the point of origin?

 

[Tony L]

They've just fired another one from Pyongyang...

Another across Japan again (BBC). Scary stuff.

 

[MartinC]

Why can't we hack into the guidance system and make them return to the point of origin?

I think once they are fired they are autonomous, relying on inertial guidance to take them to their target. No much you can do except use ABM's or other more sophisticated systems such as spaced based sharks with laser beams.

 

[merlin]

Another across Japan again (BBC). Scary stuff.

I can only hope the Chinese or the Russians take appropriate action rather than the raging lunatic across the Pacific and his war mongering generals.

 

[garyi]

What ever happened to the star wars programme?

 

[droodzilla]

What ever happened to the star wars programme?

It was always a fantasy.

 

[TPA]

Well lets see how good a negotiator Trump really is. Looks like NK are holding enough cards now to bring the rest of the world to the negotiating table.

That missile would reach Guam, the next step will be a missile launch with the range to reach continental USA and then he's basically got the full house. I just can't see any option to avoid a surgical regime change action. There is no way the rest of the world would want to concede South Korea to him, and that still leaves them with an ongoing nuclear presence.

What a mess.

 

[Tony L]

There is a school of thought that this is just brinkmanship from NK and they are posturing to avoid regime change, i.e. making it clear that if attacked there will be a nuclear response. Thus separating themselves from countries such as Libya, Iraq etc that have been crushed by western powers. The goal allegedly being that they want sanctions lifting and to be a player on the global table. I've no idea how much truth/validity is in this view, but I would still be surprised if NK launched a nuclear first strike. I have a nasty feeling that if it does degenerate into a nuclear war it will be Trump that attacks first. I suspect being the sociopathic narcissist he is he'd actually rather like to go down in history with it on his CV.

 

[Stuart Frazer]

There is a school of thought that this is just brinkmanship from NK and they are posturing to avoid regime change, i.e. making it clear that if attacked there will be a nuclear response. Thus separating themselves from countries such as Libya, Iraq etc that have been crushed by western powers. The goal allegedly being that they want sanctions lifting and to be a player on the global table. I've no idea how much truth/validity is in this view, but I would still be surprised if NK launched a nuclear first strike. I have a nasty feeling that if it does degenerate into a nuclear war it will be Trump that attacks first. I suspect being the sociopathic narcissist he is he'd actually rather like to go down in history with it on his CV.

The nuclear programme is all about ensuring the regime survives. I don't think NK would be stupid enough to launch a nuclear strike first. It would be suicide given what would come back at them. I'm not sure Trump would press the button first either. China and Russia to a lesser extent hold the cards here for NK. If China stopped importing from NK, the country would be on its knees, but China doesn't seem to want to rock the boat. There would probably be a mass exodus across the border from NK. I see no point in going for regime change with military force. SK would suffer greatly. Change has to come from within NK or via China/Russia.

 

[Tony L]

I suspect the idea is actually to prevent China imposing sanctions on behalf of the west, i.e. strangle us and we go out with a bloody big bang. It is a very dangerous gamble from an obviously pretty desperate country. Calm heads all round required.

 

[Seeker_UK]

There is a school of thought that this is just brinkmanship from NK and they are posturing to avoid regime change, i.e. making it clear that if attacked there will be a nuclear response.

This is just NK throwing its teddies out of the cot in response to the last round of sanctions. It's all they can do in response.

You'll notice that the threatened strike on Guam hasn't happened.

 

[russel]

.... I just can't see any option to avoid a war war with hundreds of thousands, possibly a million or two dead........

What a mess.

FIFY, there is no "surgical option" unless you count a blind man in a small room armed with a machete hacking wildly at people, some friend, some foe, as surgery.

 

[tones]

I just can't see any option to avoid a surgical regime change action.

IMHO the only option is to accept the fact of NK as a nuclear power. The regime almost certainly has no intention of committing suicide, it wants to survive. It has seen that the world lives with India, Pakistan and Israel as nuclear powers. It has seen that Iran gets respectful handling when it makes vague motions in the direction of nuclear weapons. It knows that it's Game Over if it ever started a war. It knows that China doesn't want it to collapse, nor does China want a US ally right on its border.

Ultimately, the only thing to do it nothing, because there's nothing useful to do. Any country that wants nuclear weapons can get them, if it's suitably determined and prepared to spend the very large amounts of money.

 

[Tony L]

Agreed. Better defences are clearly needed, e.g. the ability to shoot any missiles down that leave NK airspace, ideally just within so they land back on NK soil, but I'd argue just the same for Israel, Pakistan and India too. They can't be allowed to fire stuff over Japanese or SK airspace, that is clear.