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General Election 2024

I’m no specialist on the British Constitution but for example, if the Tories finished second, Lib Dems third and Scottish Nationalists fourth, could the Libs and Scots join forces if the pair had more seats than the Tories and then become the official opposition ?
 
Tony L said:
Unless there is a real twist over the next couple of weeks it is clear Reform are spending a huge amount of money (who’s, I’m not entirely sure, but would very much like to know) in the hope of seizing the Tory Party over the next five years.
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Tice, Charlie Mullins, Holly Valance? I’d love to know too. I don’t know that they’re actually spending huge sums. In the context of these things. I bet they are hoping for the seat and 150k votes. Short Money.
 
Wonders to himself: if the pollsters routinely included "none of the above" as a voting option, and then differentiated between those who would make the effort to turn up to spoil their ballot paper and those who would stay at home, what percentages we might start to see here? I suspect if "none of the above" was an actual option on the ballot paper, the number choosing it might be at record levels...
 
TheFlash said:
Wonders to himself: if the pollsters routinely included "none of the above" as a voting option, and then differentiated between those who would make the effort to turn up to spoil their ballot paper and those who would stay at home, what percentages we might start to see here? I suspect if "none of the above" was an actual option on the ballot paper, the number choosing it might be at record levels...
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Belgium was without a Government for almost 2 years...
 
Tony L said:
Reform are spending a huge amount of money (who’s, I’m not entirely sure, but would very much like to know) in the hope of seizing the Tory Party over the next five years.
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Follow the money. If the Tories are losing funding and Reform is gaining, I suggest we look at Tufton St.

However, will never know for sure because ‘charities’ like the IEA are highly secretive about where their money comes from and goes to. Their funding of the Tories has only recently come to light, it will take years before the funding of Reform finds the light of day.

Strange how the funding behind our ‘democracy’ is so very opaque
 
TheFlash said:
Wonders to himself: if the pollsters routinely included "none of the above" as a voting option, and then differentiated between those who would make the effort to turn up to spoil their ballot paper and those who would stay at home, what percentages we might start to see here? I suspect if "none of the above" was an actual option on the ballot paper, the number choosing it might be at record levels...
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They are counted a spoilt papers.
 
ks.234 said:
Follow the money. If the Tories are losing funding and Reform is gaining, I suggest we look at Tufton St.

However, will never know for sure because ‘charities’ like the IEA are highly secretive about where their money comes from and goes to. Their funding of the Tories has only recently come to light, it will take years before the funding of Reform finds the light of day.

Strange how the funding behind our ‘democracy’ is so very opaque
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I’m still suspecting some more elite chicanery between now and the election. In Nov 2019 weeks before the election they stood down candidates in every Tory held seat to hand Johnson his supermajority. The Brexit Party at that point existed purely to split the Labour vote and weaken Corbyn. It worked exceptionally well. UK election results can clearly be bought if you have enough money.

They are leaving it late in the day for this kind of chicanery, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t try and secure a deal where the Tories stand down in Clacton to gift the seat to Farage, and Reform only contest Labour seats again. Then post-election the Tories and Reform merge with Farage as leader. The whole thing is just gangster turf wars, and as usual the gangsters in question are entitled public school educated multi-millionaires.

They are leaving it a little late though, but maybe they are playing the long game. They may be going for the ‘fire sale‘ angle later. Another gangster ploy.

PS Spoilt rich boy Sunak may well be so arrogant and well insulated to be quite happy to see the Tory Party fail as he doesn’t need them anymore. He’s made his £millions and will be off in a tax-payer funded helicopter to California never to be seen again shortly after July 5th. As such he may be the one Tory able to say ‘no’ to Farage. He just doesn’t need to give a shit.
 
gavreid said:
Omnium in the Observer today

Lab down to 40%, Con down to 23%, Ref up on 14%, with LD 12% and Gre 7%. Both leaders' personal ratings down Starmer -3% over the week, Sunak in the abyss

www.theguardian.com

Tories and Labour on course for lowest share of the vote since 1945

Poll reveals historically low support for the big two, with smaller parties up by five points
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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This election more than any other will demonstrate the poverty of FPTP. Those hoping for Farage to bleat about electoral reform will be disappointed IMO. He may for a week or two but then simply take over the Tory party, shift it further right and consider every chance of being PM in five years, using FPTP.

Labour are already in no-man’s land, very few really want Starmer, just Sunak even less. There has to be an alliance of the Left - Green/LD. The Greens will have to become more mainstream in policies other than environment. A real problem is Welsh and Scottish nationalists will also have to be on board, deals will need to be done since policy is very similar apart from the big one. What remains of the Labour left will be subsumed.

Rejoining the EU, having a responsible foreign policy, admitting tax increases are required for funding of services, environment, environment, environment the key platforms.

In the longer term I see extinction for Starmer Labour rather than Conservative. Voting for either side of the same coin will be unsustainable.

A bit of wishful thinking out loud, this could all be bollocks.
 
Refuk will push for even more de-regulation and even more outsourcing (whilst doing even less to kerb the illegal immigration that has made them visible).
But they won't get more than a handful of seats...
 
Tony L said:
They are leaving it late in the day for chicanery, but I’d not be surprised if they didn’t try and secure a deal where the Tories stand down in Clacton to gift the seat to Farage, and Reform only contest Labour seats again.
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Definitely a worrying possibility but if Farage thinks he wins Clacton he’d probably rather just stick the knife into Sunak. He knows it’ll look very different in five years.
 
tuga said:
Refuk will push for even more de-regulation and even more outsourcing (whilst doing even less to kerb the illegal immigration that has made them visible).
But they won't get more than a handful of seats...
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'Refuk'. I like that. Because if they ever did do a merger with the Tories and Farage became the next PM after Starmer, that's exactly what they would do. Re-f***k the UK. Only this time it will be far worse than anything the Tories have done so far...
 
Tony L said:
I’m still suspecting some more elite chicanery between now and the election. In Nov 2019 weeks before the election they stood down candidates in every Tory held seat to hand Johnson his supermajority. The Brexit Party at that point existed purely to split the Labour vote and weaken Corbyn. It worked exceptionally well. UK election results can clearly be bought if you have enough money.

They are leaving it late in the day for this kind of chicanery, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t try and secure a deal where the Tories stand down in Clacton to gift the seat to Farage, and Reform only contest Labour seats again. Then post-election the Tories and Reform merge with Farage as leader. The whole thing is just gangster turf wars, and as usual the gangsters in question are entitled public school educated multi-millionaires.

They are leaving it a little late though, but maybe they are playing the long game. They may be going for the ‘fire sale‘ angle later. Another gangster ploy.

PS Spoilt rich boy Sunak may well be so arrogant and well insulated to be quite happy to see the Tory Party fail as he doesn’t need them anymore. He’s made his £millions and will be off in a tax-payer funded helicopter to California never to be seen again shortly after July 5th. As such he may be the one Tory able to say ‘no’ to Farage. He just doesn’t need to give a shit.
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This sort of thing happens everywhere, my seat is a marginal and a couple of elections ago the Green (about 1500 votes) agreed to stand down to help Labour (22k votes). It nearly worked, the Con candidate squeaked in by only 300 votes.

Incidentally, Labour must be feeling confident, Pudsey is now with West Leeds, the candidate is none other than Rachel Reeves. It will be interesting to see the results in what has always been a marginal seat, basically since 1997 Con 22k +/- 3k, Lab 21k +/- 3k, LD 1500, Green 1500, UKIP/Yorkshire etc some hundreds (not 2015, UKIP did very well. Should have noted that for the ref.)
 
Alex S said:
Definitely a worrying possibility.
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The risk for them if that does happen it makes it blindingly obvious to everyone in the country that the UK is not a democracy, only gangster oligarchy. At that point the logical conclusion is mass riots and burning Tory infrastructure to the ground. I’m surprised this didn’t happen after the chicanery of 2019, but that penny just didn’t seem to drop, and across the wider population, still hasn’t. I spent quite a few hours after the last election looking at seat data and the amount that switched from Lab to Johnson for far less votes than Reform took off the table. So many were in that margin.

Things are different now in that Brexit has failed so obviously and catastrophically that the Reform vote is just miserable old white Tory pensioners, whereas Brexit Party had a lot of white working class in Lab areas. I don’t think the same math would work now. It is all interesting though. It all points to the disastrous impact of big money in politics and just how far from a functioning democracy the UK is.
 
stevec67 said:
This sort of thing happens everywhere, my seat is a marginal and a couple of elections ago the Green (about 1500 votes) agreed to stand down to help Labour (22k votes). It nearly worked, the Con candidate squeaked in by only 300 votes.
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I view that as a different thing as the Green Party is a legitimate political party with the structure and democratic processes one expects. UKIP, Brexit Party and Reform were/are all private businesses funded and owned by some pretty dark and dubious money. None of these have any of the basic structures of a political party. They are far closer to lobbying groups with an aspect of crowd-funding to them. There is no democracy here.

In a stacked system such as FPTP tactical voting is always a huge factor.
 
Tony L said:
I’m still suspecting some more elite chicanery between now and the election. In Nov 2019 weeks before the election they stood down candidates in every Tory held seat to hand Johnson his supermajority. The Brexit Party at that point existed purely to split the Labour vote and weaken Corbyn. It worked exceptionally well. UK election results can clearly be bought if you have enough money.

They are leaving it late in the day for this kind of chicanery, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t try and secure a deal where the Tories stand down in Clacton to gift the seat to Farage, and Reform only contest Labour seats again. Then post-election the Tories and Reform merge with Farage as leader. The whole thing is just gangster turf wars, and as usual the gangsters in question are entitled public school educated multi-millionaires.

They are leaving it a little late though, but maybe they are playing the long game. They may be going for the ‘fire sale‘ angle later. Another gangster ploy.

PS Spoilt rich boy Sunak may well be so arrogant and well insulated to be quite happy to see the Tory Party fail as he doesn’t need them anymore. He’s made his £millions and will be off in a tax-payer funded helicopter to California never to be seen again shortly after July 5th. As such he may be the one Tory able to say ‘no’ to Farage. He just doesn’t need to give a shit.
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Yes, agree. But last time out Johnson was assured of victory. This time out it’s only a question of how big their defeat will be, putting Reform in the driving seat when it comes to the one inevitable shenanigans between them. Where there is likely to be a contest, it will be in their interests to fight rather than stand down.

What happens after the election will be interesting. My gut feeling is that the Tory party will split between the ERG lot and the One Nation lot. Which of the two gets to keep the Tory logo is up for grabs
 
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