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General Election 2024

My worry for the future is Reform UK. When it comes to propaganda, the Right have obviously been playing the long game. At least a couple of decades ago, many people told me that foreigners were going to take over the UK. Fast-forward to now, and I've heard people say armies of them are coming over in boats. There are ads all over Facebook saying Muslims are going to take over, with lots of worried people posting on those ads.

It wouldn't at all surprise me if Reform gain more and more support over the next few years because the right-wing media will keep up on attacking immigrants, and it's unlikely anything will change under labour.
 
I’m expecting the ERG a**holes who’ve driven a lot of Tory party actions will end up in Reform U.K. after the election.
 
Reform are going to be interesting. My bet is oligarch money will again speak and they’ll end up only standing against Labour. Their core belief seems to be elite oligarch money-laundering first, fascism second.

Other factors as I see it:

Israel: Labour’s ongoing defence of Israel’s bloodbath will unquestionably cost them a lot of votes. Likely some seats, but how many I don’t know. Galloway (who I view as far-right) shouldn’t be underestimated here, he may split the Labour vote in some places.

Brexit: the shit that never unshits itself. I’m hearing rumours that recent changes to Brexit shipping legislation are likely to have kicked in by July making certain goods more scarce and expensive. Yet another cost of living punishment beating from those who did this to the country. This could play either way, but how it is spun could be significant.
 
notaclue said:
I hear they will be going with 'Vote SNP and get free entry into a competition to win a very lightly used luxury motorhome'. Leaflets being printed up, apparently...
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The SNP have been delivering policies well to the left of Labour for a long time. I’m talking tangibles that affect how much money people have in their pockets and a measurable impact on child poverty. Starmer is offering nothing but their reversal through his fiscal strictures.
Then, the matter of Brexit, massively unpopular in Scotland and seen as another Thatchers poll tax experiment carried out in Scotland. This message will be repeated on every doorstep:

eu9D5sp.jpeg
 
Tony L said:
Other factors as I see it:

Israel: Labour’s ongoing defence of Israel’s bloodbath will unquestionably cost them a lot of votes. Likely some seats, but how many I don’t know. Galloway (who I view as far-right) shouldn’t be underestimated here, he may split the Labour vote in some places.

Brexit: the shit that never unshits itself. I’m hearing rumours that recent changes to Brexit shipping legislation are likely to have kicked in by July making certain goods more scarce and expensive. Yet another cost of living punishment beating from those who did this to the country. This could play either way, but how it is spun could be significant.
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There was an interesting piece in the FT recently during the local elections about Tory voters in the South switching to the Green Party.

Essentially the same older, well off, socially conservative voters who ended up tripling the cost of HS2 by insisting on endless tunnels so a nasty train line wouldn't spoil their view voted Green because local candidates pushed nature and conservation issues.

Be interesting to see how this works for a GE when it comes to things like those nasty wind farms spoiling the view and whether they'll continue to vote for a socially progressive party that I imagine a lot of them consider 'woke' on a lot of issues.
 
It is awful now and will be awful whoever wins. Rishi Sunak, a man with a bilionaire wife and who doesn't need to work, but who seems to delight in attacking the poor and disabled, against Keir Starmer, a Labour millionaire whose judgement is, at best, questionable. Is this really the best this country can do?
It's like choosing between which severe chronic illness you would prefer.
 
paulfromcamden said:
There was an interesting piece in the FT recently during the local elections about Tory voters in the South switching to the Green Party.
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The Tories allowing the pumping of endless amounts of shit and chemicals into our rivers and coastlines will be a very big factor here too. The LDs have been on the right side of this one so will likely take a few nice leafy Tory seats.

PS NI is interesting too, SF looking likely to be the largest party there.
 
PsB said:
You've got to start somewhere. Opposition parties usually struggle to implement their preferred changes of substance.
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Labour’s preferred substance is the same substance as the Tories. changes of substance will not happen without a change of substance
 
PsB said:
Seems like a low substance statement.
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It was a flippant reply for sure, apologies. But the serious point is the same: without a change of substance, you cannot get meaningful change. Meaningful change require government investment, regulation and a commitment to nationalisation of failing industries that are causing so much damage

The Tory substance that Labour is adhering to is privatisation, deregulation and Austerity

Labour’s true substance is in Wes Streeting’s promise to hold the doors of the NHS wide open to the private sector, Reeves’ Mais speech promising business leaders deregulation and the fact that Labour have adopted Hunt’s fiscal rules but with the addition of making them ironclad; all markers of principles that are substantially Tory.

It is the last that will make Labour worse than the Tories. The Tories make financial rules but only ever apply them when expedient. They know that if they applied them as a matter of course, the economy will tank. They will borrow, they will increase debt and they will increase taxes, and will just blame someone or something else if someone highlights their lack of
Fiscal Prudence.. By making those rules “ironclad”. Labour will have to decrease government spending and increase privatisation and deregulation, if they are to maintain their rules. Unless they increase taxes, which ain’t gonna happen.

The best we can hope for is that Labour might decrease NHS waiting lists, but it will be at the expense of cuts elsewhere.

Ultimately Labour had adopted a substance designed to increase inequality.

Increasing inequality is bad for the economy.

And bad for the greater good

And very bad for the environment
 
TheDecameron said:
Sunak is rumoured to be landing in Aberdeen today or tomorrow. Looking forward to his Four Seasons Landscaping moment with his local host
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Today would be better: 65% chance of rain. Bring that lectern to the tarmac.
 
Fatmarley said:
My worry for the future is Reform UK. When it comes to propaganda, the Right have obviously been playing the long game. At least a couple of decades ago, many people told me that foreigners were going to take over the UK. Fast-forward to now, and I've heard people say armies of them are coming over in boats. There are ads all over Facebook saying Muslims are going to take over, with lots of worried people posting on those ads.

It wouldn't at all surprise me if Reform gain more and more support over the next few years because the right-wing media will keep up on attacking immigrants, and it's unlikely anything will change under labour.
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Correct.

5-10 years of neoliberal tinkering (at best!) under Labour.

Followed by a renewed, far-right Conservative Party (or, less likely, Reform).

To quote another poster, on another thread, it will be "hilarious".
 
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