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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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The ZOE data, which has I think always been in line with the models from ONS and .gov.uk, shows that incidence among children is now in a down phase -- which wouldn't be surprising as we all surely expect the UK to follow the Scotland template, don't we? Or maybe the Scottish vaccine passports will make a significant difference. We shall see.

Anyway, it's encouraging obviously.

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Here're the hospital data. I've reverted to a linear scale temporarily to highlight the recent increases, which reflect the growth in cases - we're now almost back to the Euros peak of late July.

 
PsB said:
That green curve is ugly, though.
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One hypothesis to be considered is that the rise in the green curve is caused by children infecting their parents. If that's right we would expect the curve to follow Scotland. Schools opened in Edinburgh on 18 August, they opened in London on 2 September. If the hypothesis is true we should see what happens in England happening two weeks after it happened in Scotland, with the caveat that Scottish cases were growing more rapidly in England in all age groups prior to Schools opening -- . Here's the relevant data

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Scotland Coronavirus Tracker (travellingtabby.com)

0-14 peaked on 7 Sep
15-19 peaked on 31 August
20-24 peaked on 28 August
25-44 peaked on 6 Sep

I have to go now so I haven't had a chance to think about what this means properly, except to say that the children's data in England seems to be more or less following the Scottish template. Does it suggest that the ugly green curve should peak very soon? I think it probably does!
 
mandryka said:
One hypothesis to be considered is that the rise in the green curve is caused by children infecting their parents. If that's right we would expect the curve to follow Scotland. Schools opened in Edinburgh on 18 August, they opened in London on 2 September. If the hypothesis is true we should see what happens in England happening two weeks after it happened in Scotland, with the caveat that Scottish cases were growing more rapidly in England in all age groups prior to Schools opening -- . Here's the relevant data

Capture.jpg


Scotland Coronavirus Tracker (travellingtabby.com)

0-14 peaked on 7 Sep
15-19 peaked on 31 August
20-24 peaked on 28 August
25-44 peaked on 6 Sep

I have to go now so I haven't had a chance to think about what this means properly, except to say that the children's data in England seems to be more or less following the Scottish template. Does it suggest that the ugly green curve should peak very soon? I think it probably does!
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And week ending 9th Oct, last week, the change in incidence among parents under 50 was so small as to be uncertain -- it may be going up or it may be going down but whatever it's doing it's moving so little we can't say.

Here's two weeks ago
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And here's last week

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So once again, certainly not discouraging and I'd say encouraging given the Scottish precedent.
 
I forgot the weekly surveillance report yesterday (here)

PHE is now the more malleable UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)

Overall COVID-19 case rates increased in week 40. Case rates increased in all age groups and regions and remained stable or increased in most ethnic groups. Overall Pillar 1 remained
stable and Pillar 2 positivity increased slightly compared to the previous week.

The overall number of reported acute respiratory incidents in the past week increased compared to the previous week. SARS-CoV-2 was identified in the majority of these.

COVID-19 hospitalisations increased slightly in week 40. Deaths with COVID-19 decreased slightly in the most recent week.
 
Seanm said:
Suspect the high number of Covid deaths is joining a lot of other things on the list of things about the UK that few are happy about but that we’re obliged to accept, because political leaders aren’t providing an alternative and ordinary people have zero voice or power.

I’m also not really buying the idea that the only thing standing between the UK’s high infection rate and the much lower rates of most European countries is a handful of barely noticeable short term NPIs. My sense from reading around is that it would take fairly big, repressive interventions which in the absence of big, long term supportive interventions (sick pay, massive boost to NHS, public health initiatives, social care etc.) would largely push infections further down the road.
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PsB said:
That's weird, I don't know too many British people who are fine with 35,000 COVID deaths per year on top of everything else.
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Interesting article here on this subject (and proof that The Guardian journos read my posts)

Why Britons are tolerating sky-high Covid rates – and why this may not last | Coronavirus | The Guardian

I like Linda Bauld's way of thinking of it in terms of social contract -- a dominant public majority who are just so fed up of covid that they are prepared to accept either 35K + a year deaths of other people here or the surveillance and control measure of vaccine passports elsewhere in order to get back to how life was for them before March 2020.

gavreid said:
This week the focus is on children

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How strange to see this. I mean, strange that The Citizens have chosen to focus on children and long COVID rather than on the number of deaths. I can't help feel that they made the wrong strategic choice there -- if they really want to "[h]old power to account." Focusing on children pushes them to Long Covid, and Long Covid is a bit vague and woolly -- a syndrome like Heavy Legs Syndrome or Wind Turbine Syndrome or something. Deaths -- well there's something you can really get your teeth into.

Tell them to get in touch with me if they want a marketing strategy consultant -- as long as they have a budget for consultants.
 
mandryka said:
Interesting article here on this subject (and proof that The Guardian journos read my posts)

Why Britons are tolerating sky-high Covid rates – and why this may not last | Coronavirus | The Guardian

I like Linda Bauld's way of thinking of it in terms of social contract -- a dominant public majority who are just so fed up of covid that they are prepared to accept either 35K + a year deaths of other people here or the surveillance and control measure of vaccine passports elsewhere in order to get back to how life was for them before March 2020. Tell them to contact me if they need a marketing strategy consultant -- but I charge.




How strange to see this. I mean, strange that The Citizens have chosen to focus on children and long COVID rather than on the number of deaths. I can't help feel that they made the wrong strategic choice there -- if they really want to "[h]old power to account." Focusing on children pushes them to Long Covid, and Long Covid is a bit vague and woolly -- a syndrome like Heavy Legs Syndrome or Wind Turbine Syndrome or something. Deaths -- well there's something you can really get your teeth into.

Tell them to get in touch with me if they want a marketing strategy consultant -- as long as they have a budget for consultants.
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Agree with Reicher, sort of, that it's been normalised - but only more or less systematically. I still reckon the problem is less that the government are master manipulators than the fact that there's a vacuum - no way to platform, develop, channel concerns. I don't know what it's like elsewhere but the fact is that in the UK there just isn't any rational debate about what we're prepared to accept in terms of deaths, and in terms of restrictions, or about long term changes (sick pay etc.) The government isn't offering any options, of course, and the opposition isn't demanding an alternative. Outside of politics the media's go-to group of critical experts has filled all the bandwidth with unicorns: cost-free mitigations that will cut deaths to almost nothing - and I think everyone knows instinctively that that's BS.
 
Seanm said:
Agree with Reicher, sort of, that it's been normalised - but only more or less systematically. I still reckon the problem is less that the government are master manipulators than the fact that there's a vacuum - no way to platform, develop, channel concerns. I don't know what it's like elsewhere but the fact is that in the UK there just isn't any rational debate about what we're prepared to accept in terms of deaths, and in terms of restrictions, or about long term changes (sick pay etc.) The government isn't offering any options, of course, and the opposition isn't demanding an alternative. Outside of politics the media's go-to group of critical experts has filled all the bandwidth with unicorns: cost-free mitigations that will cut deaths to almost nothing - and I think everyone knows instinctively that that's BS.
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That's one of the reasons why I think it was such a monumental error for ISage to focus on kids.
 
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