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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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paulfromcamden said:
I'm not sure that's what's actually been said in this thread though Sean.

@mandryka said about Japan "the consensus of informed opinion is that doesn't have anything to do with masks and that sort of thing" and Joe simply replied that there was plenty to suggest that masks and that sort of thing were playing a role in reducing infection rates.

Completely agree that we shouldn't be focusing (or dismissing) any one measure. Swiss Cheese approach innit!
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I am absolutely sure that Jo is right, they were playing a role. This is more motherhood and apple pie. I shouldn’t have said “anything to do with” probably.

What is it with all these guys who confound “playing a role” and “being a significant cause” and “being the reason”? Preconceptions and biases? Political agenda? A first year undergrad wouldn’t be allowed to get away with it.

What I don’t believe has been shown is that masks were the reason for the decline in cases in Japan. They may have contributed a bit.
 
paulfromcamden said:
I'm not sure that's what's actually been said in this thread though Sean.

@mandryka said about Japan "the consensus of informed opinion is that doesn't have anything to do with masks and that sort of thing" and Joe simply replied that there was plenty to suggest that masks and that sort of thing were playing a role in reducing infection rates.

Completely agree that we shouldn't be focusing (or dismissing) any one measure. Swiss Cheese approach innit!
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Yes fair point.
 
jon l said:
Here's John Campbell discussing Japan's recently dramatic rise and fall in cases
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I feel slightly vindicated by this, at least to the extent that it looks as though social distancing is not the main cause of the Jap phenomenon, and it is still a mystery.

A word to the wise: listening to the video speeded up +1.75 makes it bearable.
 
mandryka said:
I feel slightly vindicated by this, at least to the extent that it looks as though social distancing is not the main cause of the Jap phenomenon, and it is still a mystery.

A word to the wise: listening to the video speeded up +1.75 makes it bearable.
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Difficult to see the virus dying due to it effectively destroying itself and no new strain starting up to replace it as there would have been enough people entering Japan for the Olympics for there to be a new and non damaged Delta to take over. But of course it will be interesting to see the overall scientific analysis of what happened to the virus.

Also I didn't fully follow what he meant by Ivermectin. If we assume that it does stop Covid, then to get the rate of drop in new cases would require a lot of people to be taking it. Possible of course but it doesn't seem that likely.

The Japanese cultural approach of not wanting to infect others and following the rules will have helped (there will be greater compliance than in most countries and masks will be worn correctly), but, like others, I cannot see it being responsible for the massive drop in numbers other than as a contributory factor.
 
Interesting, looks like certain categories will be on a constant 3 month booster shot. I guess I may well be in that demographic (diabetic).
 
Seanm said:
Long, very readable thread summarising much of what’s known about Omicron and offering some well informed, cautious speculations. Maybe a little reassuring for those of us who tend to assume the worst, and given what we don’t know a little reassurance is all anyone can honestly offer.

https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1465435870828322817?s=21
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Thanks Sean. My concern is that while it may not be more intrinsically deadly than Delta, the increased chance of infection for vaccinated people makes it much more of a problem for clinically vulnerable people. I guess we'll find out more in the coming weeks.

I'll be honest - at the moment I'm dreading family get togethers with elderly parents this Xmas.
 
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Tony L said:
Interesting, looks like certain categories will be on a constant 3 month booster shot. I guess I may well be in that demographic (diabetic).
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Finally! But many (half?) 12-15s haven't even had the first dose yet and vaccines for 5-11s haven't even passed the regulator.
 
Seeker_UK said:
[tin foil hat on]

Want to get more people to take up boosters? Play up the danger of a milder variant of the virus and panic the population sufficiently to scramble fur their boosters.

[tin foil hat off]
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There's no need to apologise for a tin foil hat. Doing some work with a Cabinet Office person a few years ago I discovered the existence of what he called the "nudge" department (in reality called "behavioural insights" I think). UK government has definitely declared marketing on its people.
 
morning of the day after Moderna boosting, and my arm is killing me, I can't lift it, and the muscle is burning hot...
 
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