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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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Very contentful report from Tim Specter -- on the impact of social deprivation on the India Variant, and on post vaccination covid; and on the impact of vaccination on Long covid. A reassuring report IMO -- watch it if you want to feel a bit better.

What we know about the Indian COVID variant - YouTube

gintonic said:
who cares what they want - if the data says so lock em down hard
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Ha -- that's Dominic Cumming's line. He should form his own political party.

deej92 said:
Early indications are that the existing vaccines are effective against the Indian variant and that’s what Boris said today. We’ll have to see some firm data though to be sure.

It’s clear from Blackburn though that local leaders (from a Labour council) don’t want more lockdowns and are with the government in preferring a mass vaccination strategy.
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NOONE wants lockdowns. But vaccines may not be enough without them, too early to say. If the local leaders in Blackburn are really saying that vaccines are sufficient, they are being misleading, irresponsibly misleading. They may be right, but no-one can say yet.

Seanm said:
We were discussing the idea of the NHS being "overwhelmed" the other day: more evidence to suggest it was indeed overwhelmed in January:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-january-doctors-surgery-b1849461.html

The Independent article is the usual psychedelic experience and unreadable on my browser, so here's the report it's reporting on:

https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15512
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Thanks, that looks interesting. But it will have to wait till tomorrow or Friday. I'm busy with other stuff.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57172139

Some good analysis from Nick Triggle of the BBC.

He summarises re transmission of the Indian variant:

“At the lower end, the impact will be more muted and the full lifting of restrictions on 21 June could still be on.

“There are some early signs it could be at the lower end, but it will be a week or two before we know that with any confidence.”
 
Vaccines offer no meaningful immunity until two weeks after injection. Lock down/ self isolation works immediately so it’s going to remain an important tool in managing outbreaks.
 
deej92 said:
Vaccines which data shows reduce transmission by up to two thirds. Hence why there’s a big drive to vaccinate as many people as possible in Blackburn and Bolton. Surge vaccination.

The government has said it wants vaccinations rather than lockdowns to be the main way of managing this virus going forward.
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Okay...up to 60 percent transmission reduction... let's call it an average 50 percent. Which is roughly the same as the virus being 50 percent less contagious - agreed?
So, behaviour that resulted in an R of 2 would now give an R of 1.
What was the R when there was no lockdown, in areas where the virus was rife?
What happens to an R rate of one, when a virus strain with increased contagion appears?

A little observation re government pronouncements....there is no altruism, policy is formulated according to the tory party benefitting, not pissing off their donors or the old boy network. Don't expect stuff that works, or benefits the ordinary man or woman in the street.
 
I'm still a few months away from getting my second shot, but I feel different already, as though I have spike protein antibodies ... an-ti-bod-ies.


Joe
 
gavreid said:
Prof Andrew Hayward, an infectious disease expert at University College London who advises the government, tells BBC Breakfast he is “very concerned” about the spread of the B1.617.2 variant first identified in India and “more generalised” measures may be needed.

Asked if the UK is at the start of a third wave of infections, he says: “I think so.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57183056?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=60a60c1be7130202defa3026&Variant hotspots look like start of UK’s third wave - scientist&2021-05-20T07:19:50.085Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:3532f332-66cb-4581-99ce-c0aeee309730&pinned_post_asset_id=60a60c1be7130202defa3026&pinned_post_type=share
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It goes on:

"A third wave has always been likely but its size will depend on how transmissible the variant is and how many people are vaccinated, Prof Hayward says."

Government models have always presumed an exit wave. Without knowing what he means by "more generalised measures" it's difficult to say whether or not he's saying anything new: these measures might just be the "baseline measures" scheduled to be lifted at the end of July, or anything really.
 
Seanm said:
It goes on:

"A third wave has always been likely but its size will depend on how transmissible the variant is and how many people are vaccinated, Prof Hayward says."

Government models have always presumed an exit wave. Without knowing what he means by "more generalised measures" it's difficult to say whether or not he's saying anything new: these measures might just be the "baseline measures" scheduled to be lifted at the end of July, or anything really.
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There were no variants in the Government models, nor allowances made for fading of the vaccines because both factors remain unknowns. The initial modelling did have some over-pessimistic assumptions (as it later turned out) though, which you have used to deny the prospect of a 3rd wave previously. What he is saying is that the models will need to be updated when the transmission of the new variant is understood and run against different scenarios re control measures, i.e. vaccination rate and efficacy and non-medical interventions. To do this by the 14th when the Government will make further announcements is very tight and there will be large uncertainties in the predictions, which will no doubt be exploited.
 
gavreid said:
There were no variants in the Government models, nor allowances made for fading of the vaccines because both factors remain unknowns. The initial modelling did have some over-pessimistic assumptions (as it later turned out) though, which you have used to deny the prospect of a 3rd wave previously. What he is saying is that the models will need to be updated when the transmission of the new variant is understood and run against different scenarios re control measures, i.e. vaccination rate and efficacy and non-medical interventions.
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Well, I'd hope so!

Do you follow James Ward on Twitter, Gav? He's been doing some interesting modelling for a while:

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73
 
The interesting comment is this

Obviously we're doing everything we can to contain the spread of that but it's likely that more generalised measures may start to be needed to control it,” Prof Hayward says.
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Interesting because there is absolutely no commentary in the BBC’s reporting, which is designed to spread panic. Panic means clicks. Even for the Kent variant generalised measures were envisaged (in Autumn) to control a wave.

What the media should be discussing is the Government’s decision to open up with a high transmission rate and prevalence, in the knowledge of an impending wave. That’s to say they did not to hold back until R is very securely below 1, making that happen with tough NPIs. That’s the important strategic decision I think. The new variant just has an impact on what NPIs will be necessary and when - tactics.

We really ought to make a concerted effort not to post links like that one from the BBC, and countless others from all the other mainstream media, without commentary. We’re just spreading the anxiety, and at the same time contributing to their click strategy.
 
Seanm said:
Well, I'd hope so!

Do you follow James Ward on Twitter, Gav? He's been doing some interesting modelling for a while:

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73
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Models are only ever as good as the inputs, they're useful but not the be all and end all and where exponentials are involved the uncertainties are very large. The Government isn't/wasn't planning for any control measures, that's what 'freedom day' is all about. They may be forced to soften that but don't underestimate their reluctance and the resistance within Tory circles. Make no mistake, the plan is to 'let the bodies pile up' unless the nhs becomes 'overwhelmed'
 
gavreid said:
Models are only ever as good as the inputs, they're useful but not the be all and end all. The Government isn't/wasn't planning for any control measures, that's what 'freedom day' is all about. They may be forced to soften that but don't underestimate their reluctance and the resistance within Tory circles.
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No, that’s not true. They were planning on controlling through compulsory isolation, for example, after a positive test. And with border measures. And (I think) with all sorts of workplace and education and hospitality controls.
 
mandryka said:
No, that’s not true. They were planning on controlling through compulsory isolation, for example, after a positive test. And with border measures. And (I think) with all sorts of workplace and education and hospitality controls.
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Ok no social distancing, no masks, no home working, just the lateral flow testing.
 
gavreid said:
Models are only ever as good as the inputs, they're useful but not the be all and end all. The Government isn't/wasn't planning for any control measures, that's what 'freedom day' is all about. They may be forced to soften that but don't underestimate their reluctance and the resistance within Tory circles. Make no mistake, the plan is to 'let the bodies pile up' unless the nhs becomes 'overwhelmed'
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Re models, yes of course. Gvt has been planning "baseline" measures past June though. But sure, I'm under no illusions about the government's priorities. It's just that it may well be that keeping the bodies from piling high comes at very little political cost to them.

I just don't think we're in another pre-apocalyptic scenario.
 
Seanm said:
But sure, I'm under no illusions about the government's priorities. It's just that it may well be that keeping the bodies from piling high comes at very little political cost to them.

I just don't think we're in another pre-apocalyptic scenario.
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It is not just the Government’s priority, it is the priority of every government in Europe. And the priority of the USA too. It is the natural priority of parliamentary capitalism.
 
mandryka said:
It is not just the Government’s priority, it is the priority of every government in Europe. And the priority of the USA too. It is the natural priority of parliamentary capitalism.
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Badiou has really got to you! ;)

Sure, it's possible to overdo the unique awfulness of Britain's response to Covid. The priority of most national governments has been to maintain their particular economic settlement, and to a large extent that's determined what they've been prepared to do to mitigate harms. It's just that the UK does have an unusually awful economic settlement: high rents, unusually precarious working conditions, lowest statutory sick pay in the OECD, over-dependence on property prices and finance. This is how the Tories' backers like things and it's why the government would rather pile the bodies sky high for a third time than offer proper support for sick workers to isolate, impose safer working conditions, maintain WFH for longer, give workers the rights to insist on these things etc. I mean they would absolutely see the NHS overwhelmed again rather than do any of these things!

It just doesn't look like they'd have to to squash a 3rd wave: masks, testing, some social distancing, together with surge vaccination, might well be enough. Presuming we're not hit with *another* variant.
 
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