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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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deej92 said:
Adding to that, Prof Neil Ferguson has said that B.1.617.2 is not spreading in the UK as quickly as feared.

He has also said: “Whilst the variant does appear to have a significant growth advantage, the magnitude of that appears to have dropped with the most recent data.”
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and what else did he say?

“There’s a glimmer of hope from the recent data that whilst this variant does still appear to have a significant growth advantage, the magnitude of that advantage seems to have dropped a little bit with the most recent data.
The curves are flattening a little. But it will take more time for us to be definitive about that."
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Cases of Indian variant are up almost 30% since Monday (remember there's a big lag on this information)

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08ac572d89f727#block-60a51c728f08ac572d89f727

It's now widely present in waste water and surge testing is beginning in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester, and North Tyneside

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08ea6194232c9e#block-60a51ef38f08ea6194232c9e

Six of the nine patients in East Lancs (Blackburn) hospitals had been vaccinated

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ad-of-india-covid-variant-says-council-leader
 
2 696 cases today (a large increase on last week), 3 deaths and 59 admissions (16th), The 7 day average is still down a little.
 
Driving through Dudley today - those big mobile screens now saying 'new variant is now in this area' (Its a new message , not the same as yesterday) so Im guessing that will be the Indian flavour. No surprises, it is basically everywhere now, or very shortly with so much travelling occuring.
 
Hancock says "the government is throwing everything at the new variant in Bolton. He says the weekly case rate in Bolton is now 283 per 100,000, and it’s doubled in the last week. He says there are 25 people in hospital in Bolton with Covid, and 90% of them have not had two doses of the vaccine." Nothing about how many have had one dose so it won't be good news.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08ea6194232e77#block-60a536c28f08ea6194232e77
 
https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co....-darwen-council-bosses-make-no-lockdown-plea/

Blackburn with Darwen Council leaders have written to health secretary Matt Hancock urging him to rule out putting the borough back into a lockdown.


Council leader Mohammed Khan is quoted as saying: “What is clear though is a return to a tiered system or local restrictions would have a terrible impact on our residents, businesses and communities. We have been in some kind of restrictions for over a year. Lockdowns will not provide a sustainable solution to rising rates in areas of high risk or with surges in variants. We need to work together across national and local government to actively manage these risks – not lockdown every time rates rise.”

My thoughts exactly.
 
deej92 said:
https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co....-darwen-council-bosses-make-no-lockdown-plea/

Blackburn with Darwen Council leaders have written to health secretary Matt Hancock urging him to rule out putting the borough back into a lockdown.


Council leader Mohammed Khan is quoted as saying: “What is clear though is a return to a tiered system or local restrictions would have a terrible impact on our residents, businesses and communities. We have been in some kind of restrictions for over a year. Lockdowns will not provide a sustainable solution to rising rates in areas of high risk or with surges in variants. We need to work together across national and local government to actively manage these risks – not lockdown every time rates rise.”

My thoughts exactly.
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So, how should surges and variants be managed without reducing personal contact?
 
JVT saying likely 20-30% more transmissible. Not great but manageable according to this modelling:

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1395089041062866946?s=21

The crucial thing is that the wave is delayed, so opportunities for mitigation?

Edit: according to Ward’s model, the extension of baseline controls - masks in crowded places, some WFH etc. - beyond July, when they’re due to end, would make 20% more transmissible a non-event. 30% could be dealt with with additional vaccine take up.

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1393934294083571721?s=21

Fingers crossed JVT’s right.
 
ff1d1l said:
So, how should surges and variants be managed without reducing personal contact?
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Vaccines which data shows reduce transmission by up to two thirds. Hence why there’s a big drive to vaccinate as many people as possible in Blackburn and Bolton. Surge vaccination.

The government has said it wants vaccinations rather than lockdowns to be the main way of managing this virus going forward.
 
farfromthesun said:
Pints after football.

Let all this blow over and never mind if another 10,000 die, as long as it's not me me me me me me me me.
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With vaccines, we do now have an alternative to lockdowns.

Regarding your 10,000 figure, I don’t know where you’re getting it from, but currently nine people a day are dying on average. Tens of thousands die of flu each year.

Never mind how many people will die as an indirect consequence of lockdowns in terms of suicides, missed cancer treatment etc and how many businesses and livelihoods will go under.
 
deej92 said:
. It will be the Kent strain and admittedly we’re not quite sure yet how effective the vaccines will be against the Indian one.
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so irrelevant to the current surge of so called Indian variant. Another few weeks yet....
 
gintonic said:
so irrelevant to the current surge of so called Indian variant. Another few weeks yet....
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Early indications are that the existing vaccines are effective against the Indian variant and that’s what Boris said today. We’ll have to see some firm data though to be sure.

It’s clear from Blackburn though that local leaders (from a Labour council) don’t want more lockdowns and are with the government in preferring a mass vaccination strategy.
 
gintonic said:
who cares what they want - if the data says so lock em down hard
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I don’t know where you live but easy for people to say if they don’t live in areas such as Blackburn which have near enough been in lockdown for more than a year. I live in Gorton and we also have spent most of the time in lockdown/restrictions.
 
gintonic said:
irrelevant
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Do you have any other solution other than endless lockdowns even when we have vaccines? Lockdowns won’t get us out of this mess. They’re not a cure but rather a sticking plaster with huge damaging consequences. Vaccines are the only way out of this.
 
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