Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII
- Thread starter matt j
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Amber Audio
This is the Day
+1
This thread is extremely useful to me also and a big thanks to the guys who contribute and give up their time doing the research
This thread is extremely useful to me also and a big thanks to the guys who contribute and give up their time doing the research
+2 and a big shout out to Gav especially.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
It's worth looking at September last year again to try to explain why we don't necessarily expect an immediate takeoff in hospitalisations. These grew only linearly throughout September and it was early October before an 'exponential' growth was first observed. Note that the starting level (around 6/9) is roughly equal to today. The picture today is more complicated as the Kent variant has been dying away in many areas of the country, which has to be subtracted from any growth due to Indian variant in a relative small (still) number of places. Moreover, we should expect the growth, if there is a growth, to be slower than in September if, as expected, the vaccine shows some decent efficacy.
Spraggons Den
pfm Member
If the graph Y axis is total number of cases in the UK then we are already well advanced of 06 Sep as its currently running at approx 2000.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
English hospitalisations by date reported - I don't follow cases unless I really have to.
Spraggons Den
pfm Member
Ok got it although interestingly the 7day average for number of cases is similar to 06 Sept.
The big difference being there were already lock downs in place in Sept and nobody had been vaccinated.
The big difference being there were already lock downs in place in Sept and nobody had been vaccinated.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
The rules, which failed to control the growth in September, were roughly the same as now - the main difference is vaccination (clearly). If we see a sustained but linear growth this time around they we need to be very concerned. My argument is that we would not expect to see hospitalisations mushrooming just now, which has been the argument presented over the past couple of days.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-what-has-changed-9-september
mandryka
pfm Member
Yes, and I'm guessing that what he'll be able to see in a week or two is whether there's worrying levels of vaccine escape. And of course, he should have a better handle on R0. That should let him put into place a plan for NPIs.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I think we'd see a slow, linear growth in hospitalisations in the national picture if there's an immediate problem. Any such sustained growth would be very bad news even if it's much slower than previously because it would become 'exponential' in time. R0 is extemely difficult to estimate while growth is linear. Any peaking at local level will be presented as such, but remember that those data are well in the past.
If there is vaccine breakthrough it doesn't necessarily mean we will see the same fraction of deaths as before, it maybe a serious illness requiring hospital treatment but with a better outlook. While that's all good, a big demand on hospital beds obviously would not be.
Tony L
Administrator
Emperor Johnson King Of All The Brexits stated at PMQs he had new information that the existing vaccines are effective against the Indian variant. Obviously 96.4% of what he says on any subject is eventually proven to be a lie, but still worth researching further. Matt Lyingcock is apparently giving a C19 briefing later. Hopefully he’ll have a grown-up from the scientific community present.
gintonic
50 shades of grey pussy cats
why are you elevating him to a higher station than he deserves.
Tony L
Administrator
Merely respecting his entitlement, ego and arrogance.
Seanm
pfm Member
We were discussing the idea of the NHS being "overwhelmed" the other day: more evidence to suggest it was indeed overwhelmed in January:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-january-doctors-surgery-b1849461.html
The Independent article is the usual psychedelic experience and unreadable on my browser, so here's the report it's reporting on:
https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15512
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-january-doctors-surgery-b1849461.html
The Independent article is the usual psychedelic experience and unreadable on my browser, so here's the report it's reporting on:
https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15512
Adding to that, Prof Neil Ferguson has said that B.1.617.2 is not spreading in the UK as quickly as feared.
He has also said: “Whilst the variant does appear to have a significant growth advantage, the magnitude of that appears to have dropped with the most recent data.”
Tony L
Administrator
I’ve been following the ‘Humans Of Covid 19’ facebook group since it started and my fear is PTSD is very real in our hopelessly overworked frontline NHS staff. They’ve basically been through a total war-zone, countless young nursing students and just-qualified doctors thrown right in at the deep end etc. I’ve not heard any political mention from any side about after-care for staff, but I suspect it will be required in many cases.
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Naah, 1% pay rise and they'll be reet.
Amber Audio
This is the Day
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
In a similar vein, this article shows how the NHS administrators are setting up the next capacity crisis:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-nhs-junior-doctors-jobs-b1843757.html
Pissing off a lot of future anesthetists after they've spent a year in the COVID trenches seems like a really daft thing to do. Anesthetists determine the capacity of hospitals to perform any type of operation. Fewer anesthetists, fewer operations, it's as simple as that.
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