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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

Discussion in 'off topic' started by matt j, Apr 16, 2021.

  1. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    Some places are still OK, I went to Aston Martin F1 team this morning at Silverstone and it was like a military operation to get in there. Lat flow test and all the other usual stuff etc.

    But yes, generally speaking all the places I go where staff are working close by to each other I'm not seeing much in the way of any measures taken. Offices, schools, nurseries, factories, etc. I'm usually the only one in the building with a mask on and get funny looks for it.
    Seanm and paulfromcamden like this.
  2. tqineil

    tqineil Ubi fides ibi lux et robur

    No, many companies take it seriously and set standards, many others don't do a thing? I've been rolling out LFT to volunteer teams all over the UK recently in order that they can fully open soon and welcome back those employees who've WFH for 12 months now
  3. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

  4. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    Went to a local beauty spot today for a walk, car park was full. Not seen that for months, mainly visitors, folks are definitely off the leash. I’ve not been vaccinated yet so will stay well out of the way. I’m getting friends asking when they can come up and stay at our place. To be honest, I’m really not that keen. I have a horrible feeling there is a sting in the tail.
  5. PsB

    PsB Citizen of Nowhere™

    ^^That’s almost 1 case for 100,000 jabs, with a 30% fatality rate. Not great.
    mandryka likes this.
  6. John Phillips

    John Phillips pfm Member

    Now may be the time to re-consider the analysis model and what is normal.

    Models are useful when they adequately describe reality; and need to get updated when they don't. However, although it seems to me that a new normal is being established, it seems to be too early to say what that is.

    In the chain: Restrictions -> behaviours -> infections (cases) -> admissions -> deaths, I recently notice (since mid-Feb or so):
    • cases have clearly stopped fitting an exponential model;
    • admissions are dropping as a percentage of cases (good);
    • admissions may be deviating from an exponential model (but IMHO a little more data is needed to be sure); and
    • deaths are dropping as a percentage of admissions (from circa 30% to just under 10% so far - good).
    Is the weakening of links in the chain due to vaccination and increasing resistance to infection, or from seasonal variation in virus activity? Or something else? I hope primarily the vaccination.

    Ongoing low (low enough) admissions and low (low enough) deaths may be the new normal to anticipate and plan for. Ongoing vaccination with updated vaccines for new variants may now be a key risk mitigation tool. However other ongoing risk mitigation measures may also have to be used and we may have to get used to them; perhaps for quite a while.
    Sue Pertwee-Tyr likes this.
  7. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Admissions are now constant, not dropping, which probably indicates that they're about to rise but I agree it needs more time. Cases have been falling because of the school holidays and we need to see how that changes things too. That much is pretty clear.

    Possibly, but abrupt changes as we've seen this week or so are never expected, that is a good argument for remaining consistent for now. The only abrupt event has been Easter (this week's changes being too recent to feed into hospitalisations). I suspect we're seeing a shift in the ages of those hospitalised but I've seen nothing to support that conjecture. We know that before the Easter break that it was young children becoming infected the 5-12s, are these the parents? Other over-Easter infections? If so we will see much more of this in the coming weeks.
    TheDecameron likes this.
  8. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    So how are we feeling about these mutations being imported from other parts of the world? We have the SA variant that we know about and now a 'double mutation' from India, the latter of which scientists are very concerned about in relation to the vaccines' effectiveness. India is not even on our 'red list' travel wise so now we have nearly 100 cases in the UK. I know closing the borders seems at odds with our country's way of doing business and openness and I know it would be economically massively expensive and logistically difficult, but if we are going to import variants that may eventually take us back to square one then that has to be a worse situation all round. I really do wonder if outside of trade we need to shut down and isolate ourselves as much as possible to at least attempt to avert an even worse catastrophe that might be round the corner.
  9. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    There's been a lot of tourist traffic at the London airports too despite Government denials...
    tonerei and tiggers like this.
  10. Bjork67

    Bjork67 pfm Member

    Wonder if Boris will fetch us all something nice back from India.
    gavreid, paulfromcamden and tqineil like this.
  11. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    FT chart suggesting the India variant is spreading at a similar rate to the Kent variant. Agree with @tiggers - seems crazy the UK hasn't blocked travel from India. Perhaps we can bring it in while Boris is on his jolly.

    gavreid likes this.
  12. Chops54

    Chops54 pfm Member

    Aston Martin F1 team? You lucky chap :cool: Most of the places I work at are nowhere near as upmarket :(
  13. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

  14. Sonority

    Sonority pfm Member

    It does appear that this virus is exceptionally good at tagging onto travel - with the restrictions / isoiation and outright bans in place - is it possible to actually stop SA or Br variants getting into the UK I wonder.
    A fairly comprehensive set of regs seems to be not enough.
  15. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    New Zealand seem to have done a pretty good job of it. Far, far fewer people so I appreciate it's perhaps been more easily achievable - but they've also benefited from a government that from the outset aimed for zero covid.
  16. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    The regulations aren’t practical, people quarantining at home will probably transmit the virus to the people they live with, who will then take it out of the home . . . It’s not obvious to me what can be done about this, realistically.
  17. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    A kitchen is a kitchen at the end of the day, I'm not swanning around in the VIP area unfortunately. I'm usually elbow deep in a minging deep fat fryer so not really that upmarket.
  18. Chops54

    Chops54 pfm Member

    And there was me thinking you were doing something much more exciting :(
  19. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

  20. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    2 206 cases, 35 deaths and 156 admissions (14th, cf 112)

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