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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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^gintonic, if this Indian variant spreads across the country and we then see a big rise in hospitalisations and deaths and it becomes clear the vaccines aren’t working great against it, then yes, some form of lockdowns, social distancing etc may be needed while we tinker the vaccines to work again.

No evidence of that right now and let’s see what the next five weeks leading up to June 21 bring. They really will be a test of how well the vaccines work .
 
VERY detailed statistical discussion on R4 this morning.
The outbreaks of the Indian variant are predominantly amongst under-30-year-olds, who may be ill, but the great majority are no more than that.
There are no "spare" vaccine doses - who do you NOT vaccinate to vaccinate more, younger people in the areas where people are ill but no more than that - ill?

Vaccinated individuals can catch the Indian variant but it makes them ill, not requiring hospitalisation.
 
Vinny said:
Vaccinated individuals can catch the Indian variant but it makes them ill, not requiring hospitalisation.
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I posted the other day on that about a double dosed patient in India requiring eight days of hospitalisation. He did have some protection thankfully, but it was serious. It was highlighted owing to his position as a scientist (or medic or some such).
 
gavreid said:
I posted the other day on that about a double dosed patient in India requiring eight days of hospitalisation. He did have some protection thankfully, but it was serious. It was highlighted owing to his position as a scientist (or medic or some such).
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Somewhat inappropriate, but one swallow does not make a summer.

I'll go by the scientific/medical lastest updates in the UK.

Who do you propose NOT to vaccinate? Your comment would indicate that you should NOT vaccinate younger people in preference - vaccinated older people survive, even if needing a few days in hospital.
 
deej92 said:
...........No evidence of that right now and let’s see what the next five weeks leading up to June 21 bring. They really will be a test of how well the vaccines work .
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Can't argue with that. I'm one of the lucky ones (as I suspect most of the posters on this thread are) who aren't greatly impacted by lockdowns, but I empathise with the millions who are.
 
Vinny said:
Somewhat inappropriate, but one swallow does not make a summer.

I'll go by the scientific/medical lastest updates in the UK.

Who do you propose NOT to vaccinate? Your comment would indicate that you should NOT vaccinate younger people in preference - vaccinated older people survive, even if needing a few days in hospital.
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Go by what you like Vinny. I was pointing out that 'Vaccinated individuals can catch the Indian variant but it makes them ill, not requiring hospitalisation.' is not the case.

It's expected but it's unknown yet as to what the level might be as so few people in India are fully vaccinated and this variant has grown so rapidly at the expense of the other variants that were in circulation.
 
gavreid said:
Go by what you like Vinny. I was pointing out that 'Vaccinated individuals can catch the Indian variant but it makes them ill, not requiring hospitalisation.' is not the case.
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I already pointed out that the current vaccines are not a total protection.
Data from the UK also says that it is far less of a concern in vaccinated individuals.

I ask again - who do you propose NOT to vaccinate?
 
Vinny said:
I ask again - who do you propose NOT to vaccinate?
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The vaccination programme isn't about individuals but about protection of the population as a whole. That's a very difficult question to answer without detailed knowledge. Nobody wants to hear about the 16 year old with long covid missing a year of studies either.
 
gavreid said:
The vaccination programme isn't about individuals but about protection of the population as a whole. That's a very difficult question to answer without detailed knowledge. Nobody wants to hear about the 16 year old with long covid missing a year of studies either.
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This is why it was surprised to hear the Darwen Public Health bod saying this

I am furious. I cannot understand why [the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation] or Department of Health and Social Care are stopping local directors of public health from taking the action they know will halt this surge of the Indian variant.
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I'd be surprised if he's in a position to know what's the best thing to do nationally -- though clearly robbing Peter of his vaccine in London to vaccinate Paul in Blackburn will help in Blackburn!

Covid: Johnson to give update amid concerns over Indian variant - BBC News
 
mandryka said:
This is why it was surprised to hear the Darwen Public Health bod saying this



I'd be surprised if he's in a position to know what's the best thing to do nationally -- though clearly robbing Peter of his vaccine in London to vaccinate Paul in Blackburn will help in Blackburn!

Covid: Johnson to give update amid concerns over Indian variant - BBC News
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I agree with you for a change;) Apparently they asked permission, which was refused, rather than stating that they would vaccinate out of sequence. Then they voiced opposition, presumably for local consumption, subsequently.
 
deej92 said:
Andy Burnham speaking out against local lockdowns. He really is one of the few on the left who seem to be challenging this. https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1393109173412499457?s=21
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It certainly is true that the old Tier 3 didn't work against the Kent variant. Will some non pharmaceutical interventions be effective now in the context of a partially vaccinated population and an even more contagious variant? I'm not able to make a call about that because I haven't got the data to build a model -- I wonder if Burnham has.
 
deej92 said:
Tiggers, I don’t agree with most of that but I respect your right to an opinion.

With the vaccines and the clear evidence of how well they work, barring a killer, vaccine-busting variant, I’m absolutely of the view that June 21 normality is what we should be aiming for and no looking back then, but I accept that some people (I seem to remember one or two on here being against the April 12 opening as well and school pupils going back all at once after March 8) are more cautious.
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Fair enough and likewise re. opinions :D
 
I'm surprised they're claiming not to have enough stock to do surge vaccinations. I read recently that they had an insane amount of vaccines sitting idle. That's pointless.
 
Seanm said:
I'm surprised they're claiming not to have enough stock to do surge vaccinations. I read recently that they had an insane amount of vaccines sitting idle. That's pointless.
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Part of the problem is the difficulty in handling ther Pfizer vials, only particular sites can deal with it. That mainly leaves availabilty of AZ...
 
Seanm said:
I'm surprised they're claiming not to have enough stock to do surge vaccinations. I read recently that they had an insane amount of vaccines sitting idle. That's pointless.
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In fact, I felt the opposite, I was surprised yesterday when you said that you thought they had stockpiles. Where did you hear this?
 
mandryka said:
In fact, I felt the opposite, I was surprised yesterday when you said that you thought they had stockpiles. Where did you hear this?
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Twitter of course! Not someone I follow, unfortunately, so I can't find the thread, but they had credentials: they'd gone through government documentation pulling out numbers and feeding them into models and the conclusion was, they've got bloody loads!
 
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